What Were We Expecting? What Are We Seeing?
Nov 14 – Morning Report
I had a report written by 9:15 A.M. today showing positive signs in the Gold overnight, which were leading me to believe that the “WEEKLY” charts would end with GOLD putting in another weekly reversal candle. The action yesterday in Miners was mentioned in yesterdays report and I said that GDX had broken below its recent uptrend line and would need to recover to be a shake out and not a break down. It has. GDX & GDXJ are both WELL ABOVE their 10sma & Volumes today is strong. So based on all the reports from me for the past week or so- what do you think we are seeing?
Yesterday there was weakness in the Miners & I posted an update report saying that DEC 2013 lows had a momentary flush of the lows and ‘possibly’ we could see the same, but I still was not expecting a PLUNGE lower to $1000 or $800 (YET) . I have been saying that I expected that we are at lows and would have a nice rally for at least the next few weeks. I will now share a couple of the charts that I had for this mornings report, but Gold & Silver have exploded higher and I will tell you what I think we are seeing here and how you can benefit.
At 9:00 A.M. I was going to point out that GOLD held prior support & Reversed ( That was Bullish) (Click to enlarge)
As I was finishing my report at 9:15, it started to break higher (breaking out?)
Then…
It did break out , so I decided to watch a few targets . Orange resistance at $1162.50 and then it would face resistance at former highs
Here we are as I write now. You can see that we are in a trading range, but attempting to break higher. All this action from this week lead to this…a show down that may not prove itself until next week. (We may even drop & test that orange line break out)
Sorry for the clutter, but this weekly chart shows potential. No official “Shake out” yet, but one could buy if we get the recovery slightly higher that we are now. (click to enlarge)
. GDX & GDXJ recovered the 10sma, but I consider it a safer buy above the 20sma . I’d like to add something that I mentioned before in earlier reports. Some MINERS may be leading the way.
RGLD, SLW, FSM, FNV and some more are already above their 20sma and have recovered from the shake out. Buying them at the 20sma gives you a low risk entry. Buy at the 20sma, stop if it then drops below the 10sma.
Here is … FNV today – The MAY lows (ICL) ran from $45 to $62ish
Here are a few more things that you can look for as things move forward to determine if things remain bullish looking. You may want to Remember these older charts that I posted Nov 7 too. Buy GDXJ above the 20sma which is now at $27.36
GDX
These are current charts . Notice the MAY ICL …we may be in a similar set up to buy soon. BUY a Close above the 20sma
GDXJ
Yesterday I was showing how GDX broke below the trendline. Was it a shake out or break down? I said we should watch the “test”
This was that chart (Click to open) …would it “TEST” of the break down or get back inside??
This was at 11;00 a.m. – nice! You can see that if GDX closes any higher than $18.30area, it is breaking out higher. I have $18.52 now 
SO the Title is “What were we expecting? What are we seeing?
I think we are seeing which direction the Metals and Miners really want to travel. They couldnt break it down and tried a few times. Gold was bought back up and today the snap back higher was so quick, it looked like some short cover. What will happen if Gold gets over that $1179 area? An Miners are acting very nicely , above their 10sma and as seen on the chart right above – GDX is moving above its downtrend line now. Volume looks stronger on UP days. Next week will likely reveal everything…stay frosty.
And a personal thanks to a friend – SOLSSON 
~ALEX
Alex, thanks for everything. I have been in NUGT all day. Love the ride. Never know what to do when holding over the weekend anything can happen. Would it be best to lock in the winnings Today and buy back Monday if things continue. I realize I could miss a gap up at the open, but I could also avoid a correction at the open. Any historical data on the best approach?
I second the question, especially how the miners might be up 3%+ more by now, relative to POG, but alas for last friday?! Will a punch through 1200 release a relative spring forward today, for the miners?
ugh I’m not much on weekends…. 🙂
I made good cash Today on NUGT. I sold everything. Its always safer. Whenever I hold a position in Nugt I try to get out end of day. It always seems to gap up/down unexpectedly the next day. I imagine the weekend to be worse. So out it goes. Locked in and a comfortable feeling for the weekend.
Its always acceptable to lock in profits , and you said that you dont mind getting back in higher if necessary. We could JUMP resistance here on Monday or we could pullback & try again. Hard to know for sure. I would take at least something off the table. : )
Alex, thanks for everything. I have been in NUGT all day. Love the ride. Never know what to do when holding over the weekend anything can happen. Would it be best to lock in the winnings Today and buy back Monday if things continue. I realize I could miss a gap up at the open, but I could also avoid a correction at the open. Any historical data on the best approach?
I second the question, especially how the miners might be up 3%+ more by now, relative to POG, but alas for last friday?! Will a punch through 1200 release a relative spring forward today, for the miners?
ugh I’m not much on weekends…. 🙂
I made good cash Today on NUGT. I sold everything. Its always safer. Whenever I hold a position in Nugt I try to get out end of day. It always seems to gap up/down unexpectedly the next day. I imagine the weekend to be worse. So out it goes. Locked in and a comfortable feeling for the weekend.
Its always acceptable to lock in profits , and you said that you dont mind getting back in higher if necessary. We could JUMP resistance here on Monday or we could pullback & try again. Hard to know for sure. I would take at least something off the table. : )
Regarding the PM’s,
Fundamentally, the BB’s and MM’s are faced with the basic cost of production levels, negative GoFo rates reflecting shortages of supplies, uncertainty about the Swiss gold initiative, serious multiple geopolitical hot spots, technically combined with a formidable multi-year horizontal support zone.
For the past few weeks I feel like the MMs have been brilliantly painting these charts in the most psychologically destructive way for suffering bulls. I.e. — high volume Bullish breakouts (relief) followed by grinding sideways (frustration) with a dash of demoralizing breakdown flushing. It really works, as more bulls continue to capitulate in spite of a strong volume, weekly doji / pin-bar off of significant support.
Every guru aground is calling for the big breakdown (which may indeed happen) to under $1000
I nearly let go this morning “prior to even checking the market” when I woke with feelings of panic and dread.
When I finally saw the 3% premarket drop I nearly signed in to my account to push the button..
I held thanks in part to the analysis you’ve been doing which has added moral support to the things I have been watching.
Now all we need to do is get through the rest of the day, and I might have a nice weekend. I’m almost afraid to look wrote up this post. Things blowup so quickly and I’m currently gun shy~
Best,
Jim
Yes JIM…You either get that straight up V-Bottom short covering rally that leaves everyone behind chasing, or you keep making lower lows and wears out the bullish resolve that it has the strength to go higher- then it does. crazy.
And I think we could still get a deeper drop, but timing looks like a bottom in this area and the absolute Bearish sentiment seems perfect for a short covering rally at least. Tough stuff ! : )
Regarding the PM’s,
Fundamentally, the BB’s and MM’s are faced with the basic cost of production levels, negative GoFo rates reflecting shortages of supplies, uncertainty about the Swiss gold initiative, serious multiple geopolitical hot spots, technically combined with a formidable multi-year horizontal support zone.
For the past few weeks I feel like the MMs have been brilliantly painting these charts in the most psychologically destructive way for suffering bulls. I.e. — high volume Bullish breakouts (relief) followed by grinding sideways (frustration) with a dash of demoralizing breakdown flushing. It really works, as more bulls continue to capitulate in spite of a strong volume, weekly doji / pin-bar off of significant support.
Every guru aground is calling for the big breakdown (which may indeed happen) to under $1000
I nearly let go this morning “prior to even checking the market” when I woke with feelings of panic and dread.
When I finally saw the 3% premarket drop I nearly signed in to my account to push the button..
I held thanks in part to the analysis you’ve been doing which has added moral support to the things I have been watching.
Now all we need to do is get through the rest of the day, and I might have a nice weekend. I’m almost afraid to look wrote up this post. Things blowup so quickly and I’m currently gun shy~
Best,
Jim
Yes JIM…You either get that straight up V-Bottom short covering rally that leaves everyone behind chasing, or you keep making lower lows and wears out the bullish resolve that it has the strength to go higher- then it does. crazy.
And I think we could still get a deeper drop, but timing looks like a bottom in this area and the absolute Bearish sentiment seems perfect for a short covering rally at least. Tough stuff ! : )
Hi Alex,
There can’t be that many Solsson on the internet. Do you really know me, how? Nevertheless, thank you for your outstanding work with charts! I found my way here from Jordans site and I am glad that I did 🙂 gold cut through $1180 like a hot knife throu butter. Have a nice weekend.
Solsson- I just got the word that you had mentioned my site a few times in another forum and even posted a link to help others come read the reports. I appreciated that : )
Aha, ok I suspect argentus maximus at TFMR, he is also very good. I am a non Economist, non chartist from Sweden, just trying to hang in there.
I was blown away by his 15months old prediction about gold price, from July 2013:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/331108#comment-331108
change 2013 to 2015 in x-axis, the prediction worked out quite well, maybe the spikey end is about to start?
wonderful small world,
Few forum members from a regular site I posted, sometimes quoting you, later did mentioned you too.
Hi Alex,
There can’t be that many Solsson on the internet. Do you really know me, how? Nevertheless, thank you for your outstanding work with charts! I found my way here from Jordans site and I am glad that I did 🙂 gold cut through $1180 like a hot knife throu butter. Have a nice weekend.
Solsson- I just got the word that you had mentioned my site a few times in another forum and even posted a link to help others come read the reports. I appreciated that : )
Aha, ok I suspect argentus maximus at TFMR, he is also very good. I am a non Economist, non chartist from Sweden, just trying to hang in there.
I was blown away by his 15months old prediction about gold price, from July 2013:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/331108#comment-331108
change 2013 to 2015 in x-axis, the prediction worked out quite well, maybe the spikey end is about to start?
wonderful small world,
Few forum members from a regular site I posted, sometimes quoting you, later did mentioned you too.
Hmm….this game of they won’t let us get out yet seems to play like a broken record…… There will come a time when they won’t let us get in and that might very well be very soon, if not now.
Exactly…there can be a feeling of , “Well, I dont want to chase it just to have it pullback” & it just runs up and away (See May 31 2014 into June)
So I do nothing but watch Alex and how this screwy world since I have parked my bullion van and threw away its keys. I will have plenty of time to find a crowbar.
Hmm….this game of they won’t let us get out yet seems to play like a broken record…… There will come a time when they won’t let us get in and that might very well be very soon, if not now.
Exactly…there can be a feeling of , “Well, I dont want to chase it just to have it pullback” & it just runs up and away (See May 31 2014 into June)
So I do nothing but watch Alex and how this screwy world since I have parked my bullion van and threw away its keys. I will have plenty of time to find a crowbar.
Wow! What a day! Great work! I became very bearish this morning as gold broke down overnight and early morning; was so worried about one more shot down. I ejected out of my NUGT position shortly after open at a (small) loss only to watch it zoom off without me. I firmly believe that is why it went higher. Once we all give up only then are lows in! I was even looking to short but paused long enough to realize that was a mistake (thank goodness!). Will be watching and checking your work next week for entry. 1189 spot was my resistance to claim for next move higher!
Hey Cason…Bottoms are tricky and I feel that they are orchestrated a little differently each time to throw as many off as possible. And seriously…MANY went short this a.m.
I will have a weekend report to discuss thoughts, best wishes to you
Thanks, Alex. Yeah, I knew another washout was possible so just got out of the way. I managed that position poorly and know it – happens. Just glad I waited long enough to see the rally instead of blindly going short on emotion instead of actual analysis! Will be looking for weekend report – thanks.
Wow! What a day! Great work! I became very bearish this morning as gold broke down overnight and early morning; was so worried about one more shot down. I ejected out of my NUGT position shortly after open at a (small) loss only to watch it zoom off without me. I firmly believe that is why it went higher. Once we all give up only then are lows in! I was even looking to short but paused long enough to realize that was a mistake (thank goodness!). Will be watching and checking your work next week for entry. 1189 spot was my resistance to claim for next move higher!
Hey Cason…Bottoms are tricky and I feel that they are orchestrated a little differently each time to throw as many off as possible. And seriously…MANY went short this a.m.
I will have a weekend report to discuss thoughts, best wishes to you
Thanks, Alex. Yeah, I knew another washout was possible so just got out of the way. I managed that position poorly and know it – happens. Just glad I waited long enough to see the rally instead of blindly going short on emotion instead of actual analysis! Will be looking for weekend report – thanks.