Tuesday October 15th
SPX – Monday was day 7 of a new daily cycle and the markets moved higher , pulled back, and stalled. Are they going to fill the gap at the 50 sma? Maybe, maybe not- see the chart & look at the Gap from September.
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QQQ DAY 7 – THE SOX & DJIA did not fill their gaps either, but here you can see that the Q’s did, so it may or may not happen. I would have a stop UNDER the 50 sma.
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WTIC – Oil dropped 2%, but it did still close above the 10 sma & stayed there. That should be a dcl in place, but I have no position in this sector, since it has been choppy and difficult for months.
XOP – The XOP continues to reverse off of the possible bottom formation. This one may have been a back test of the down trend line. It could be a low risk entry (Gush), but again, it too has been a choppy trade so far.
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UUP -UUP was up on Monday, yet so was Gold, Silver, and the Miners for most of the day. They also broke down together on Thursday & Friday, so the ‘inverse relationship’ has taken a break for now and they have moved together.
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USD – The USD tried to regain the 50 sma, and actually closed at the same price as the 50sma.
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GOLD – Soon Gold will either break out higher or break down lower, since we are approaching an APEX. So far Gold moved up & tagged the 10 sma, but has still closed under it. I have to expect a break down, but a move above $1515 would be Bullish. It would have to be viewed as a very mild a-b-c type drop down to an ICL as it breaks above the trend line & 50 sma again.
I am also watching Gold on shorter term time frames like this, and I posted this in the live commenting area. You can see that GOLD can still move higher and yet remain in a downtrend. If I see a break of the 50sma or that down trend line, that would turn this Bullish.
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GDX – Miners ran higher & sold off into the close Monday. I expect Miners to drop into a deeper low (ICL), but they have now chopped sideways for almost 3 months and a break above the 50 sma would be viewed as Bullish too. I have always stated that triangles can disguise cycle counts. That said, I am mainly expecting a drop from here , before we resume the bull run.
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So our set ups remain the same as reported last week & in the weekend report. They are having a bit of a difficult time gaining traction, and that causes choppiness, but the daily cycle lows are in place in the General Markets. Miners are chopping around under the 50 sma. One sector that continues to outperform is the Shipping sector. PLEASE KNOW IT HAS HIGHER RISK, BUT IT ALSO HAS HAD HIGH REWARD. Why the risk? Shippers can move like leveraged positions, so as I discuss it below, please understand that positions should be kept reasonable or even small if you take a trade. When a stock runs 10% higher one day & then another 20% then next, it can drop 10 % the following day. That is what makes these difficult to ride at times ( until you get some distance between your entry point & current price). I view a good entry point as one being near support or in a base, since price often returns to support & reverses. That said, I will discuss Shippers again, and a few other things below.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BIOTECH ( LABU) IS ABOVE THE 10 SMA & COULD BE BOUGHT WITH A STOP. It is at least a short term buy, but we’ll have to watch it around the 50 sma for further bullishness or rejection. Read the chart.
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NAVB ( Biopharma) is a buy as it continues to hold above support, and I posted this in the live area Monday morning. I also wrote… With the LABU reversal, I’m also liking GH, TWST, IDRA, ZIOP as possibly forming a bottom. At the end of the day, I would say that GH, TWST, and ZIOP could be considered ‘buys’, and IDRA just needs to get above the 50sma to become a buy.
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SHIPPERS AGAIN: I have been discussing the massive moves in Shippers lately with NAT, TNK, ASC, etc running swiftly higher. Over the past few weeks I have pointed out set ups that looked ready to go, and I will review a couple here. Then I will mentioned 1 or 2 that may be setting up to possibly be the next big %-Gainer.
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NM – I bought NM as it reversed off of the 50 week MA ( or 200 sma daily). This acted correctly at support so it was a buy…
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NM – NM ran from $4 to $6, and now looks to be forming a bull flag as it tries to continue to push higher through a down trend line.
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NM – I still own NM, and you may want to continue to hold too, since it looks like it could run to $8 or even higher. These have been breaking out & just running higher. Let me show you why I am still holding as it flags near the down trend line…
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ASC -I tried to buy this in early October & it missed my order. It ran to the down trend line & just kept going to new highs. NM could do that too. These are running very strongly and even breaking to new recent highs. See NAT & TNK also.
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SBLK – I am also still holding SBLK, and I think that this bull flag may be a buy opportunity too, allowing the 10 sma to catch up. If this is just a pause before it breaks to new recent highs, it can continue to run much higher.
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TOPS – I added to TOPS at the open Monday morning and posted this as a buy point at 9:37 a.m. I saw a large amount of volume immediately and it was breaking this blue line…
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TOPS – This gradually ran up 24% Monday and as I mentioned in prior reports, I love the tight bases when buyers step in. This MIGHT be able to run to $8 or $9 over time and that would be a double or triple.
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SHIP OCT 10th – I posted SHIP last week saying that it could be the next one to run with this great base. I owned it and mentioned you can buy it at a break out above the 50sma to be safer. It broke out Monday so I posted this in the live trading area & added to position…
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SHIP – As it broke out, it just kept climbing, closing up over 20% with HUGE volume. Short term SHIP could keep going, it may Bull Flag, or pause, but this break could be very bullish and I’ll show you why. If it bull flags, I’ll add at that flag. That volume…
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SHIP WEEKLY – That volume for one day is MUCH GREATER than an entire weeks worth of volume. Also look at the overhead room to run out of this tight base due to reverse splits. That 20% move Monday looks tiny. Like I said, short term this may run, bull flag, or pause, but the big picture looks good – IF THE SECTOR STAYS HOT.
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DCIX WEEKLY – I bought DCIX and posted that this set up looks good too. A long base pushing on the 50 week ma. Buy a break out ( I entered early)…
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DCIX WEEKLY – Monday gave us the break out, so it is a buy here. It closed up 8+%, but it was only up a penny or 2 for most of the day, then buyers came in at the close.
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SO WHAT MAY BE ANOTHER SHIPPER THAT COULD BE THE NEXT BIG RUN?
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PSV #1 – I was watching the tight formation in PSV today, and put in a bid at $1.05, so now I own it. When I looked at this chart, I noticed just how easily it would be for this to pop from $1 to $1.50 -the way these have been moving. Even $1 to $2 looks rather easy, right? …
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PSV – I looked at the weekly chart and it is breaking from a falling wedge. That also looked like capitulation volume over the last 2 weeks with hardly any price drop. I view that as Bullish. PSV was up almost 3% to $1.05 here at 2:22 p.m., but it ran higher into the close to $1.14, up 11%.
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PSV – Now up 11%, this is still a buy, based on the way this sector is moving and several other factors (oversold, volumes, etc).
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FTK – FTK also could be the next one that is ready to go, as it breaks above a falling wedge or downtrend line.
I repeat: The Shippers as a sector are starting to gain traction, with long term charts of SALT, SBLK, ASC and a few others making good gains over time, but they are not easy to ride. Look at a 1 year chart of ASC and you will agree. These are tricky and not without risk, but the rewards as they move out of bases and off of support areas can be substantial.
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TECH:
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AMD – On Oct 3 I mentioned that AMD was a buy as it reversed off of the 200sma at $27. It could run tot he 50 sma, maybe more…
AMD – Now it is a Buy ( or add to your current position) again, breaking above that 50 sma at $30.50.
TSEM -Also remember that TSEM has been bullish, not selling off when the markets did, and guess what…
TSLA – Even TSLA is actually acting bullishly as it breaks from a multi-month consolidation. Volume is increasing, this can be bought with a reasonable stop.
