Wednesday September 25th
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ONE SPX CHART FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT POINTED THIS OUT– Everything was sideways & choppy until the last 4 days of that last daily cycle. That was simply a 4 day plunge. If it happened then, it could happen again, so use stops.
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SPY MIDDAY – The SPY started to drop quickly and it does look similar to the first day of the drop in Late July.
SPX – The SPX closed near the 50 sma, with a small bounce into the end of the day. We are due for a dcl, and that drop begins by breaking below the 10 sma. There is time for further dropping, and the Stochastics is not oversold. We will likely see more downside, and it could be a lot more, so I’ll be watching the 2822 if the 50 sma breaks. Look at the NASDAQ…
NASDAQ – It broke and closed below the 50 sma already. That makes this look worse than the drop in late July, since that happened on the last day of the drop at that time. Now let me show you something else worth noting…
NASDAQ WEEKLY – Tuesday is WAY TOO EARLY to be looking at a weekly chart, but I’m still going to use this as an important ‘heads up’. If we sell off into Friday, the week closes with a weekly MACD kiss & drop. It also closes below the 10 week MA. It also may break a trend line ( Not drawn). That means that the next daily cycle could be the one that is short-able in a very profitable way. The next dcl would provide a bounce and then roll over, so I’ll be watching SOXS, SQQQ, etc.
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WTIC – This was an idea that I had been discussing. If the break out was real, a back test is normal, but we’d need to see a reversal soon. Time is running late…
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WTIC – I have us on day 33, today is the Oil inventory report, so I’m watching Oil on Wednesday.
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XOP – The XOP has back tested former resistance turned support. We’ll see if it holds, or breaks down & recovers.
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XLE – XLE has not reached the 50 sma yet.
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GOLD, SILVER, & The MINERS – Another step higher
GOLD IN YESTERDAYS REPORT – I posted this yesterday, so I have been saying that Gold CAN go higher. Yesterday I wrote:
“Gold stayed stronger than miners, since it did not lose the 50 sma. It broke above the down trend line & the 10 sma on Friday, and Monday we got some follow through. The last Daily Cycle was right translated, so I have drawn the possibility that this makes a slightly new high & rolls over as L.T.”
GOLD – That Calendar used as the opening pic shows that we have 4 more trading days in the month of September. Gold is on day 10. Could Gold keep climbing to day 14? Yes, I mentioned that a daily cycle can peak on day 15 & still be L.T. so basically Gold can keep climbing for the rest of this month. I am writing this because…
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Gold can keep climbing for the rest of this month, and I am writing this because each day that Gold or Miners moves higher, I am being asked by email ” Does this now mean an ICL is in place?” I understand the excitement, but at this point I’d say ‘ “No it doesn’t mean that was an ICL, and it doesn’t really fit the criteria for one either”. Currently we do have our next dcl in place, we’re on day 10, and it may be stronger than many expected, since the last one was R.T. too. As I have been saying, “I buy the dcl as a technical buy, and I watch it going forward for strength or weakness using stops” . It can roll over L.T. if we come due for the ICL drop.
SILVER 15 MINUTE CHART- AS I WRITE AT MIDNIGHT EASTERN TIME- Silver looks Bullish, like an inverse H&S, so we’ll see if this plays out higher or not by the opening bell.
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GDX – Day 7 here. I have drawn a break of the trend line & a possible back test on this climb, so if Miners continue to climb, you may be seeing this. I also have noted all along that… ” I am…
I also have noted all along that… “I am buying stronger miners like HMY, DRD, CDE, etc because individual miners may out perform based on their own merit.” We have definitely seen that happen with DRD, CDE, and others that are outperforming. Some are at new intermediate highs, while others remain under their 50 sma.
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CDE – 3 days after closing above that 50 sma as a buy, CDE broke to new Intermediate Highs and closed at the highs. Some of these miners are acting very well after a shake out at the 50sma.
DRD – Off of the 50 sma has been a great move for DRD too.
Yesterday I POSTED THIS CHART— PAAS – Another Silver stock finding support at the 50sma was PAAS. Notice that it is lagging a bit, so it could be bought with the hopes that it catches up. It too is oversold. Do you remember the DRD ( & HMY ) Trade set up? They were bought at the 50sma and let it ride, hopefully reaching former highs.
PAAS – Many Miners were in the red quite a bit Tuesday morning, but then closed up into the green by the end of the day. This could have been bought with a stop at the 50 sma & see if it follows the DRD, CDE Trades to new highs. It could be bought here too, but use a stop.
BTG – I wasn’t going to add any more Miners at this point, but I looked at AUY, IAG, BTG and a few others, and the sector still looks like it can move higher. I did decide to grab BTG, since it is still near the 50sma and broke a trend line. I’ll use a stop.
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So the General Markets were due for a drop into a dcl, and the drop accelerated through the day Tuesday. It can go lower.
Oil & Energy have been dropping to a possible back test of the recent break out, but it could fail. The Oil inventory report is released on Wednesday at 10:30 am Eastern time.
Precious metals continue to slowly climb higher out of their dcl, with some individual stronger miners reaching new intermediate cycle highs. Some of these have been strong, and if you held your basket of Miners as recommended, you are seeing gains with the ‘surprise to the upside’ out of this dcl.
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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KEG – I ( or we ) bought a few energy stocks down at the lows before that Iran/Saudi Pop in early September. Buying KEG at $1.15 gave me around 60% gains after that Saudi News pop, but then it got choppy and started consolidating that pop. I used a tight stop this week on some of these ( 10 sma) and I actually got stopped out of Keg with good gains, but it then recovered. I can always get back in after the report if the action turns bullish. So far we are pulling back and choppy.
