Friday Sept 20th
Today is Friday and this is the final trading day of the week. We didn’t see very much change Thursday, the day after the Fed Decision was released, but I am thinking about the possibility of a new scenario that may be developing in the Precious Metals Sector, so I will mention that too. Let’s take a look at the markets …
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SPX – Day 32 saw the SPX rejected at the new highs. Day 32 is getting late, so even though this can move a bit higher, a drop into the next dcl can also begin at anytime. This was a right translated daily cycle, so I expect a higher low and a break to new highs on the next daily cycle.
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WTIC – I am thinking that Oil will find support and can even start to trend higher over time, now that it has broken out from this base. If it drops back below the 50 sma, that would be a failed break out in my opinion.
XOP – Many Oil stocks Popped & also look to be dropping on lighter volume to the support areas. I drew this chart for yesterdays report , and…
XOP – Nothing really changed Thursday, price is still above the 50 sma. It is overbought, so we may chop around for a bit here too.
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GOLD – Gold looks normal and healthy from a chart perspective, but it is due for a dcl and needs to push higher above the down trend. A dcl may already be in place as we wait for that push higher.
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SILVER – Silver cannot get back above the 10 sma, but it’s low may also be in place from last Friday. If that low is taken out, the cycle count continues.
GDX – This is the chart from Yesterdays report. We have the same set up for GDX, except that GDX is trapped under the 50 sma. Was that a day 30 dcl?…
You can see how this could be day 4, or a quick plunge lower could give us a dcl on day 35 or 36, etc. There is another possibility developing that I should mention…
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There is another possibility developing with GDX that I should mention, and I will do that below. For now I think the General Markets are nearing the peak for this daily cycle and Oil is finding support. It could turn higher or just chop around, that remains to be seen. Trading has become a bit choppy and boring this week, despite the volatility that surrounded the Fed on Wednesday.
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Enjoy your Friday trading.
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~ALEX
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I must inform everyone again that I am travelling all day on Saturday and this time I will not have internet access to write a complete weekend report, so this weeks weekend report will have to be released on Sunday evening. Thanks for understanding.
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I was thinking about the possible weakness in the Precious Metals short term and if they cannot break back above that 50sma, a scenario that came into my mind is something like I am showing below.
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GDX#1 – We could perhaps see 5 waves down into the ICL or as I have been pointing out, a large a-b-c on a weekly chart. Here I am just giving a visual idea of what I am talking about. A dcl forms & price begins crawling along that 50 sma, but unable to get back above it. I quickly drew a ROUGH IDEA of how that could play out here, with a day 8 peak and then a drop starts taking place. THAT would be a L.T. failing daily cycle into an ICL.
GDX#2 – GDX did close above the 10 sma yesterday, so it really needs to break higher soon or this crawling scenario can take place. GDX would simply be a break down at the 50 sma & a failure to recover it.
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2 Energy stocks as examples of possibly trying to find support, but we all know how ‘bases’ form too. I want to be aware of the idea that some of these May just break down to the lows and base out too.
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OAS – I used this chart in the live trading area to show how OAS may find support.
WLL – And WLL moves fast. It ran from $6 to $12 ( 100%) in 2 weeks and is now pulling back. A drop to that 10 sma doesn’t look like a big drop, but that would be a price of $8.55 at this point.
