August 21 FOMC Minutes
I will be at my chiropractor early Wednesday morning, so I am releasing this Tuesday at Midnight. I haven’t had a chance to give it a good proof read, so I hope it is clear, understandable , and has minimal typos 🙂 I should be back before the Markets open in the U.S.
SPX – The SPX is chopping in a range that is capped by the 50 sma & even the 20 sma turned it down Tuesday. We have a day 6 peak and we are on day 11. Tuesday was a gap fill to the 10sma, but we’ll see if that holds, since at this point the General markets are indecisive and directionless. WE’LL SEE IF THE FED MINUTES/JACKSON HOLE HURTS OR HELPS THE MARKETS RANGE OF CHOP.
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WTIC – Oil did not break out Tuesday. Wednesday morning ( 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time) the inventory report will be released. Lately that has dropped Oil. I would say that a break out above the 50 & 200sma would be a buy signal for Oil & This sector, but only with a stop at those moving averages.
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UUP – The USD turned down at the point of a double top. I’m using UUP to show the volume. As the USD turned down Gold moved higher…
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GOLD – WHAT I WAS WATCHING : I was watching the 20sma , since it held the consolidation as supportive in July. I changed that view to this…
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GOLD – WHAT I AM SEEING : Both the 10 & 13 sma supported the June sideways chop and price didn’t drop far below the 13 sma in July. Gold reversed on the 13 sma yesterday, similar to what we saw in June. It may now make that run to $1550 , or it may just continue to chop around, because it didn’t regain the 10sma quite yet.
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SILVER – Silver put in a nice reversal on Tuesday too. we’ll see if we can get some follow through. These reversals can be bought with a stop under that low ( higher lows) .
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GDX reversed strongly on support, and …
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SO MINERS ARE NOW LEADING GOLD AGAIN WITH THIS REVERSAL
GDX 2 weeks ago – I talked about this channel 2 weeks ago, and I thought maybe we’d get the Pop to $31 and then the drop to the lower channel line…
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GDX #1 of 5 – We reversed at the lower channel line and this can be bought, but it is not an official until it gets above the 10sma. GDX may now be ready to run to that $31 area, but Look at the indicators and notice how each pop higher is weaker and weaker? The intermediate cycle is getting older.
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GDX #2 of 5 – This reversal can be bought as a possible 1/2 cycle low with a stop. Leverage may or may not work out well, so that should just be for the experienced traders. Why might Leverage not work out? This could just double top. It could run to that $31, or it may just stay choppy, etc. The later we get in the Intermediate Cycle, the closer we should be getting to a peak, so leverage is trickier.
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GDX #3 of 5 – In technical analysis, breaking that down trend is a buy, and a stop goes under Mondays lows. GDX did close SLIGHTLY above the 10sma.
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GDX #4 of 5 – I want to point something out for those that want to go “ALL in with Leverage “. The last 2 moves higher only moved higher for a couple of days. If you trade leverage, do so with that in mind and know your entry & exit.
GDX #5 of 5 – I mentioned in a prior report that we could see the same final thrust higher after a small pull back, similar to 2016, and we may get that now. It also leads to near $31. LOOK AT THE MACD & RSI. If you choose to use JNUG as a trading vehicle, you need to be in front of your screens and may need to be nimble. This set up is different from the BUY & HOLD that I recommended at the MAY lows. These set ups are one step at a time, and we’ll see how they unfold after this week and heading into the Sept FOMC Mtg.
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We have the FED MINUTES & Oil inventory report Wednesday, and JACKSON HOLE Thursday to Friday, so it is hard to tell what exactly will happen with the Markets and even precious metals. Miners could take off and rally, or we could get a ‘peak’ in the intermediate cycle soon, with more of a shorter lived Pop & Drop. We have to get past this week to know for sure, but that reversal in Miners can be bought with a stop.
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I will share a few more ideas below, enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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VGZ – VGZ reversed at support and volume came in too. I think that this could be bought for a quick run higher. Miners are in an uptrend and the dips can be bought with stops.
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FSM – FSM had a deep drop, but it came in at the 50% mark & reversed. That is a buy too. Even a run back to recent highs is a nice trade ( $3.50 to $4.60 roughly 30%) .
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SBGL – I posted this in the live trading area, I really liked the action with SBGL & HMY Tuesday Morning . It Closed at $5.38 and after a nice consolidation like this, it may break higher & run . In a bullish setting, A stock can run nicely after a multi week consolidation,
AUY – I posted this in the live trading area, it is a buy with a stop under Mondays lows. This was 1/2 day, so ignore the volume.
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USAS – USAS reversed at support too. That was a big drop also, so even just a run back to the highs would be a good trade.
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We have had an 8 day sell off in GDX & GDXJ. Monday Night I was considering the possible 1/2 cycle low idea, and I began looking at charts. I noticed that SOME miners are hardly pulling back while others are dropping a bit deeper, so I grabbed some of those charts to point that out.
These are stronger, possibly due to accumulated, and should be noted as ones that may run better than others going forward (Maybe to buy for your basket at the next ICL or with the current break out). Let’s look at those charts…
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RGLD – Look at the pull back for RGLD. THAT is Mild and it reversed right off of support. Note: It did NOT run 100% like some of the juniors that we bought and I like to focus on, but it is less choppy.
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RGLD – At the end of the day Tuesday, it broke out as a buy.
EGO – EGO is up well over 100% and has hardly pulled back too. August is choppy, between $9 & $7.50, but it may be forming a bullish consolidation / a flat topped wedge.
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HMY – I liked HMY too, since the pull back has been mild & we gained 100% on this one. I then mentioned it in the live area this morning…
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HMY – It started to move higher, so HMY was back at the recent highs, and …
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HMY – It ended the day up over 10%. Look at that uptrend- this is a beautiful uptrend, and they had good news about future production. I owned it from MAY and added Tuesday morning.
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NG – NG was another good runner that is up almost 100% and the recent pull back in GDX & GDXJ is not showing up in NG either. When we drop into an ICL, we want to visit these stocks and see if they are holding up better than others.
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THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE :
NGD – NGD is an example of a Miner that took off and ran up OVER 150% in 2 months! It has now sold off 50% of that run in 1 month. This is more of what I expect to see around the time for an ICL, so I wanted to show you this as a visual. Do I like NGD?
If this were to take off now, it could do well %-Wise , let me show you the weekly chart…
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NGD – It looks like NGD broke from a 1 year base & back tested it on the recent pull back. I do like the potential with this set up.
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