Friday August 16th – A Time To Rest?
With the recent choppiness in almost all of the Markets sectors, I’ve decided not to hunt for some buy set ups for Friday. It is the last day of the week, and I have traded a couple of trade set ups this week myself, but I’m finding that the chop is undoing many of the set ups that I have seen trying to develop. I do see break outs taking place, and a day or 2 of upside movement, but they really do lack follow through at this point. For this Friday report- I am just going to show the market action and probably take a rest from the trading .
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SPX – Spx rallied to the 50sma, sold off sharply, and then put in a 1 day reversal on Thursday. It may bounce here, but that MACD is not improving, it looks quite weak.
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TRAN – The bigger picture for the TRANSPORTS and RUSSELL 2000 ( RUT & IWM) could be forming the dreaded H&S pattern.
The Big Picture Weekend Report will cover this in more detail.
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WTIC – Oil remains choppy, and the XLE, OIH, & XOP actually broke to new lows on Thursday, so this sector does not seem healthy or ready for trading yet either.
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USD – The USD is rising, and yet Gold is not dropping, so that is encouraging for the precious metals sector.
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GOLD – Gold continued to move higher and is near the recent new highs (Miners are not, however).
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GDX – GDX & GDXJ did put in a reversal, but they are not leading gold. They also remain under the 10sma. Gold is near the recent highs, yet Miners have dropped all week until Yesterday. This can bounce from here if Gold keeps climbing to the $1550 area, but I wouldnt expect a strong rally…
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GDXJ – GDXJ seems to have reached the lower trend line of a channel.
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GDX – In yesterdays report I did mention that we could see a bounce, and I drew this chart. I don’t think that a bounce will be very strong, but I own a basket of Miners to capture any upside surprise in case we do get a good bounce.
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GDXJ – I also posted a few ideas of how this may play out. I am looking ahead and trying to think about the Sept Fed Mtg. Miners could remain choppy until we settle down into a dcl.
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If you decide to trade today, enjoy your Friday trading! The last several weeks have been an absolute delight, until this week 🙂 This week has been rather choppy and difficult, so some of you may just want to slow it down, ease up on the gas pedal like I plan on doing, and look forward to enjoying the upcoming weekend. I hope to have the Bigger Picture Report out by Saturay night.
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Enjoy your Friday!
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~ALEX
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GDX – Just for fun, I took our current run and ‘cut & Pasted’ the ICL drop in May of 2016 onto it ( It is a bit messy, I apologize for that). Basically I wanted to gauge how deep that drop was be if we repeat something similar to 2016. It would pretty much bounce & then drop to the 50sma. Next chart…
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Same Chart: I AM NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN, we could drop deeper, but what I am doing is showing how choppy it also was in 2016. The drop may not have been all that deep, but it was difficult in a day to day real time manner.
