Tuesday July 23rd

 

 

 At times, it can be difficult to write a report on a Tuesday, since the Big Picture Weekend report covered longer term expectations, and sometimes not a lot changes 1 day later.  Today we’ll just consider this a review of our short term expectations.

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SPX –  The SPX is holding up on the 20 sma, and we are due for a dcl timing wise.  I expected a deeper drop to the 50sma, so we are still waiting for price to give us the full story on how this first daily cycle ends.

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SPX – My weekend report discussed a possible break out & rally or a Top into the end of the year.

 

 

WTIC  – There is uncertainty with Oil, and it seems to be a reflection of the geopolitical situation in the Mid East with Iran.  That means that Oil is volatile, choppy , and not so easy to trade.

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USD – I believe that we saw an ICL in June, and maybe a dcl just formed.  As I mentioned in the weekend report, My Bias is an eventual drop for the USD, but this does look bullish short term, so what if this were to run to prior highs at 98??

 

USD BIG PICTURE – In this Big Picture view, it can run to the blue line overhead  near 98  (FOMC?)  and then drop, and still fulfill expectations.

 

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GOLD  – Gold did not do very much on Monday, the bull flag still has not broken down.  If the USD runs higher,  Gold  MIGHT drop further though.  ‘IS GOLD STILL OK IF IT DROPS?‘ …

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GOLD  –   It would be ok if Gold chops around as the USD runs, and it can even go sideways & bottom on the FOMC Meeting, and then surge higher sharply.   We just cannot know EXACTLY  how this will play out, but this set up below would still be bullish, because…

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WE’LL JUST STAY FOCUSED ON THIS BIG PICTURE IF THE USD RUNS TO 98, and  GOLD DROPS A BIT.

SILVER   – That SILVER / GOLD RATIO is still improving, because Silver moved higher on Monday without Gold. 

Bullish. 🙂

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GDX #1 – So I would draw this as one bullish possibility,  since Miners can  stay strong as Silver moves higher. This would be a bull flag where the following saying fits:   ‘They won’t let anyone buy the dips‘. However…

 

 

GDX #2  – I could also draw this as possible too, if GOLD drops and the USD pops.    This would be the  1/2 cycle dip that I have been looking for moving into the FED, and then a rocket out of the rate cut.  So this chart helps us to see that it MIGHT get boring for a few days, but we can handle it.

 

 

GDXJ – This could go either way too.  As a side note, I am seeing some JUNIORS popping, and if Silver continues to rise, many junior Silver Miners can benefit. Some silver Miners were quite Green Monday…

 

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USAS – This is a SILVER MINER that I recommended repeatedly while it was inside of that base.  It continues to benefit from Silvers break out.  This DOES look extended and I am being asked, ” Should I sell?”, but I have been saying try to resist losing position.   Let me just say,  “Sure, if you want to lock in some profits, lock them in, yit may help some to sleep better.”  –  but let me show you again why I have held positions  …

 

NG  – This looked extended a couple weeks ago,right?  But after simply pausing and going sideways, it started moving higher again.   NG, NGD, DRD, EGO  and others are all acting like this.  In fact, let me show you something about these BULL RUNS...

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EGO   – This was my chart of EGO on July 3.  IT WAS VERY EXTENDED, RIGHT?  LOOK AT THE RSI & STOCHASTICS!!  It looked overbought at $5.00.    Well, you may recall that I have said that in a BULL RUN,  the RSI is not a sell signal, it is a sign of strength.     EGO was  extended  at $5, and now  quite extended at $6,  even up 100%,  but was it a sell??

EGO   – WOW!  Weeks later it is almost $8.00 now, with no pull back!  If you sold at $5.00, where would you buy back in on this chart?

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BALMF   – LAGGERS are taking off in a big way, even the penny stocks.

 

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AAU JULY 9   – I liked the AAU lagger , as long as it held the 200sma

 

 

AUU   -Last week AAU  slammed down & I was concerned, but when it immediately recovered,  I re-posted this as a buy the reversal at the 200sma with a stop, but it still churned sideways.

 

 

 

AUU – MONDAY MORNING , I was watching AAU, and this looked very good to me, so I mentioned it in the live area.  I bought it because the volume was looking good for the first hour …

 

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AAU  – This is how  AAU ended the day, up over 16% and look at that volume.  This again shows that the Laggards can quickly catch fire and play catch up. The MACD crossed higher and this can actually run higher out of this consolidation.

 

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NAK  – I also mentioned NAK at that time, you can see the time stamp in the upper left corner.  I tried to post this chart with AAU after the first hour of trading, but DISQUS was acting up and would not let me post it. At that time, I mentioned that NAK reversed on the 50sma, and volume was good for the first hour.

 

 

 

NAK   – NAK also ended up higher by 18%, so my point is that even though GOLD stalled and Silver is trying to push higher,  some of these Miners are surprising to the upside.

 

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NAK WEEKLY  – In the past I have discussed NAKS  well known problems with the EPA and trying to get permits for mining, but those issues may be going away.  They currently sit on a boat-lode of Precious Metals in Alaska .   This chart looks bullish again, just know that they have risks.

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 I discussed price targets and other ideas for GDX & GDXJ in the weekend report.  Nothing really changed with Mondays trading,  and as you can see from this report,  the Precious Metals area is still acting Bullishly.  Individual Miners are in a Bull run, and some Laggrds are still Popping and trying to play catch up.   I expected a 1/2 cycle low in the current daily cycle, and we can still see some chop & sideways action, we’ll have to see how it plays out.  Even with a good size dip in Gold or Miners,  the sector remains bullish above the recent dcl.  Pull backs and consolidations are Buy the dip opportunities, in  my opinion.

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Enjoy your Tuesday trading and remember,  we are about 1 week away from the anticipated FOMC RATE CUT.  Anything can happen between now and then.

 

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~ALEX 

 

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SILVER –  As I proof read this report near 7 a.m. Eastern Time, Silver is moving higher even though the USD has been  moving higher too.  This actually looks like a Bull Flag and if it breaks higher, you can see why selling Silver Miners would not be a good idea.    Gold has dropped about $9 overnight, but is now bouncing.  Below this Silver Chart is the live feed found on the Chartfreak Website

 

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This live feed is piped in from Kitco and can be found on each ‘report’ page of the website for a quick glimpse. It doesn’t automatically update, so you need to refresh the web page to get an updated view. The price of Gold is stuck at 5:25 a.m. for some reason.  Time stamps are on each chart.