Friday June 28th – The Bears Are Bored
Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. So far, the Bears have been a little bored this week when it comes to most of the markets sectors, so let’s take a look at our markets…
SPX – This doesn’t look like much, but I do see signs of improvement in the General Markets going forward. in Past reports I was looking at the weakness of the TRAN & RUT. Let’s see what they did on Thursday.
TRAN – The Transports actually turned and are pushing on the 200sma. Often that could just be a ‘back test’ and nothing to get bullish about, however…
RUT – The Russell ripped higher & broke through the 50 & 200sma. A recovery that to me would be a good sign. So let’s take a look at one more area…
SOX – Semiconductors often lead the tech sector and this is set up more bullishly after recovering the 50sma yesterday. Not only does that mean the CY, MU, AMD, TSEM, and other semis might become a buy , but the SOXL is often a great leverage tool in this sector. Next chart…
SOXL – As the SOX has chopped sideways , the SOXL has moved from( Roughly) $100 to $150, and that is a BIG move for a chart that looks like it is just starting to shape up. This looks like it wants to run to $200 and maybe more. IF YOU BUY THIS ONE, PLEASE USE A STOP!
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AMD – Holding the 50sma, and lined up with a rising 200sma, AMD has remained healthy and could be bought here.
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UUP – I used the UUP to get the volume. The USD is oversold, but may just back test the under side of the channel.As it bounces, GOLD has stalled.
GOLD – This was quite a run, pretty much just running away as a runaway move, so it is starting to pull back with the USD bounce. With the USD Bounce, this might ( or might not) pause longer than one would think. It could flag in a similar manner to the area with the blue arrow , for example. 10 days of that is 2 weeks of trading.
SILVER – Silver did not runaway, so the pull back is more of a consolidation. It would be great to see Silver run higher while Gold consolidates, but so far that is not happening.
GDX – When you have a runaway type move like we see in GDX, my experience ( and studies) have often shown that the first gaps and even the middle gap does not always fill. What I have also seen is that the recent gap can become a 1/2 way point in the move (roughly). I’ll explain that further in the weekend report – so …
GDX- We could see something like this for now, but this is just an idea or a possibility based on past experience. It may do a sideways pennant, bull flag, or some other consolidation pattern.
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COMMENT- I missed a question since I was gone from the comments area, so I thought that I would throw it in here (You may have to click on it to enlarge it).
The HUI to GOLD RATIO in 2008 to 2011 was under very different circumstances that what we have now, so I can’t really explain this one as compared to that one. In 2011, we had Silver doing a parabolic run to a blow off top, and when you look at Gold on this weekly chart, it was also running bullishly into a parabolic top after rising for 10 years. We are currently in a base breaking out (also seen in this chart), and Miners have been hated and feared over the past 7 years. They may play catch up in a big way, but right now many people were shorting the miners and hated being long. That may change, but it may take a little time. We’ll see.
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So this is Friday, the last day of another good week of trading. Part of what makes that good is that so far, the Miners aren’t crashing back 50% on a pull back. They have more of an accumulation look to them, where people are hardly selling them, and the dips seem to be bought. Great for those that bought near the lows, difficult for those trying to get in or add to positions. We’ll see if it continues to play out that way.
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Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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CDE – So far the pull backs are mild. Usually a set up like this would drop and test the 50sma, and fill that Gap, but I’m not sure that we will see that. That would be a great place to add, but it might just be that we have to add a little more here as it crawls under the 200, and wait and see what happens next ( Pop or Drop).
DRD – A few rockets like DRD, NG, AU could pull back 50% of that move & be fine, but they are not giving up the gains so far either. These Miners do look much stronger than in the past.
GPL – So we’ve been looking for laggards. GPL is a silver stock that Runs, consolidates, runs, consolidates, etc. I really expected a drop o back test the moving averages. If you see that & support holds, that would be a low risk buy.
PLG – If Platinum catches up, PLG actually looks good to me. A break out over the 50 sma would be the sign of strength to confirm that it is healthy, but the MACD has been rising with the recent drop.
CLF – Yesterday I discussed CLF, AKS, X, and a few other ‘Metals’ stocks, so those can be bought or placed on a watch list.
TLRY – Recently in early June I discussed TLRY and a few other MJ stocks as possibly shaping up. I gave this as a Buy at $41, and…
TLRY – This was my big picture view after it moved to $44. And now…
TLRY – TLRY is above & riding along the 50sma. This is a good place to add to your first Buy, or start a new position.
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The MJ SECTOR MAY SLOWLY BE SHAPING UP, I’ll keep my eyes on it. Many smaller ones are Popping. WTER, ALEAF, EDXC, etc are acting more to the bullish side again, CGC has flattened out and may try to regain that 200sma, so…
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ACB – ACB has been a bit tricky. It has chopped around under the 200sma, but just recovered. These move quickly, so you can see that ACB actually just moved from $7 to almost $8 this week. I would say that it could be bought with a tighter stop.
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