April 3rd- More Of The Same
Not much changed from yesterdays report, so let’s start with a quick review…
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SPX – Day 17 and we have a new peak. You could say that these markets are a bit choppy and sideways , but it does continue to climb higher with that action.
RUT – The Russell 2000 has not broken out from its downward sloping channel, but it did recover the 50sma, so that has to be viewed as progress in a bullish manner.
WTIC – Oil did break out over the 200sma and closed there, and I mentioned yesterday that Oil looked as though it would do that. The RSI for Oil has been very bullish coming out of that ICL. WEDNESDAY is Oil Inventory day.
DNR – Some of the Energy stocks seem to be base building, and even when they broke the 50sma, they dipped back down when overbought. That means that until they begin to break the base & run, gains have been choppy and minimal (in some of these).
GOLD – Gold could bounce to the 50sma, but I really do not expect it to break & run yet, due to ‘cycle timing’. Past mini consolidations turned into reversals and broke higher, as pointed out here. This was day 18.
SILVER – Silver sold off , but so far it has held up at that support area . In fact , it looked like it would break down yesterday and put in a reversal At Support. Several Silver stocks actually have returned to their lows, others are fairing better. I will post more about that at the bottom of the report.
GDX – GDX has broken the 50sma in the recent past and quickly recovered. I would be expecting more of an oversold ‘bear flag bounce’ to form, rather than a recovery here with today being day 23. GDX / Miners have shown their strength in recent months, but this is choppy sideways action on GDX. Can that overhead gap fill? I would have to say that GDX will not break higher by that much, but again, Miners have been sideways /choppy and showing some strength. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND….I will discuss ‘Miners’ more at the bottom of the report.
GDX – And GDX is resting on a trend line, though a drop to an ICL is expected to break that line. I have to expect a small bear flag type bounce & further downside.
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I will discuss a bit more on the Miners, some of the current trades, and by request I will review the Uranium stocks mentioned yesterday. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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SO I just want to discuss the selling in Miners. I will just start by saying that it is taking place exactly as I thought it would. I have been saying that some Miners will really sell off while some others will act like ‘individual’ stocks on thier own strength. With that in Mind, let’s look at just a few Miners to see this Mixed Sell Off.
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CDE – Silver held support, but you can see that CDE is back at the December lows. Not a good ‘buy & hold’ yet, but a stop at the 50sma would have been helpful. Even selling the back test this late in the daily cycle would have been much better than holding on. Did you know that a drop from the Feb highs to now is over 30%!
FSM – Another Silver stock that couldn’t withstand the selling. Again, Silver didnt break support, but those 2 Silver stocks got caught up in a sell off mode.
SA – Yesterday I pointed out SA & NSRPF as Miners taking the hit in this sell off too. SA got pretty ugly fast losing both the 50 & 200 sma. It has dropped from the peak of $15+ to below $11.50
So what about the ‘Mixed selling’ that I just discussed? I mentioned that this sell off could have us seeing some Miners acting as individual stocks with more strength than others. Let’s take a look….
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MAG – Each blue line is equal length, so this selling has taken on a bit more downward pressure, but so far MAG is not even close to the lows, like CDE & FSM. It is above the 2 support areas of the 50 & 200 sma. If selling continues to an ICL over the next week or 2, MAG may end up in a a-b-c type drop, but holding up at the green line ( 200 sma). That would be a good buy for MAG near $8.
KL – KL Sold off from above $36 to below $30, and reversed yesterday.It lost the 50sma, but that looks like a bullish engulfing when Silver reversed on support. It will be interesting to see if KL shows even more strength than other Miners and recovers the 50sma… or not.
SAND – Sand, RGLD, and ‘GOLD’ have held up rather well, but read the chart, there could be more downside to a lower support.
NEM – And did you see NEM & GG ignoring the sell off ? They are acting stronger than their peers.
So you can see that the selling has been very mixed, and this is what I expected. The problem is that some are selling off back down to the lows, so HONOR STOPS or the losses can mount.
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BY REQUEST FROM YESTERDAY: THESE ARE SOME CHARTS THAT I POSTED FOR THIS SECTOR RECENTLY TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL. I was asked “Can you update a couple, since you discussed them back on March 14?” Sure.
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UEC MARCH 14– So here it was breaking above the 50sma as a Buy. These are choppy, so I drew it hitting resistance and then breaking out above the 200sma too.
UEC DAILY – It is now at that 200sma, volume is increasing, and it broke out. I would continue to hold, and even add on a successful back test. As you can see, Uranium Stocks progress in a very choppy and sometimes ‘slow gainer’ way, but it does remain Bullish.
URG – I pointed out the large saucer base and mentioned that if you can take the choppiness, this could be BUY & HOLD. It was 77 cents on March 14.
URG – It is now 92 cents, so it has gains, but look at how choppy this is. It is very difficult for some to watch these day by day, but the sector is NOT selling off with precious metals Miners and is in fact pushing higher right now. I wouldn’t buy this one here, I’m covering by request for someone that bought it last month. It looks good, it could stall sideways or dip again, so THAT would offer a buy later.
UUUU – This was a great looking base really. This was an updated chart from March 26, where it was recommended as a buy at $3 breaking the 50sma. It was now $3.32, but still choppy. This chart shows you the longer term potential, but let’s zoom in to a current short term chart.
UUUU – Now UUUU is $3.56 and it could be running to $4, and looking at the ABOVE chart again, a break out from $4 has great potential. This is an extremely choppy stock and hard to hold, but I still think that a Buy & Hold & Forget about it ( with a stop) could pay off over time.
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APHA – APHA ( MJ Stock) Held support. I own this one and will as long as it remains in a bullish set up.
HVBTF – We got our POP in HVBTF. I noticed that it was at the top of a channel, but I didnt sell. I have owned this from under & at the 50 sma near avg 20 cents or so , and am trying to hold it with the idea that the Cryptocurrencies will have another Bull run.
I have been discussing BITCOIN here regularly as a BASE . I called for an initial run from $3500 to $6000, and we hit $5000 yesterday. These were 2 of a few of my charts
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I pointed out the run that I expected and also mentioned RIOT, MARA, HVBTF, GBTC, XNET, KPAY, GROW, MGTI, , and more as Blockchain gainers that I expected to benefit when the run happend.
This is BITCOIN CURRENTLY- Still moving higher, but quite extended short term.
So I have mentioned these, and if you bought them, yesterday RIOT, MARA, XNET, HVBTF, etc did pop 20% and more, so I cant really recommend them now. Watching for a pull back or sideways consolidation may offer future buy opportunities. GROW, FTFT, & KPAY were ones that did not take off, and my be ‘BUYS’ here.
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LJPC – This was a buy at the end of Feb and Bought and sold mine for gains. It was pointed out in the comments yesterday as perking up on support of the 50sma. I do not LOVE the low volume, but I do like this set up moving back above the 10sma, and it is a buy with a stop under that 50sma. Many of the BIOTECH Picks are doing well. See AVEO, ZIOP, LPTX, GH, and now even TWST started to move. That could be a BUY too.
TWST – This was mentioned weeks ago as a buy , especially if it starts breaking higher. It had small volume during the consolidation, so I didnt buy it, but some here did. This could actually make a run to prior highs ( $34). If it breaks to new highs, it could do what GH did for us- it just ran away.
IDRA – I think that IDRA is showing volume in the base that indicates that it wants to break higher too. I need to find out if they released earnings yet, but this may be one that I trade.
LX – This break out looks good and has good potential. I mentioned it in the live trading area below yesterdays support as it broke higher.
OGRMF – This MJ stock also continues to act bulloshly. It looks like it wants to break out to new highs again.
