Feb 12th – Tuesday Talk
Not much changed in Mondays trading , but I want to discuss something in addition to a quick review and possibly a new sector perking up. Let’s get right into it…
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SPX – No change here, I think that the upside on the first daily cycle has run out of steam and a dip will come before another move higher.
And I want to take this time to remind everyone that from the beginning I was saying things like this,
” A trade-able & somewhat believable bounce will come out of the sell off into that ICL. It will convince people that the bull has returned, but we will have to watch the first 2 daily cycles for clues as things play out. Was the correction enough and the Bull run continues? Or is weakness going to prevail after earnings, and are we forming a large H&S?”
I feel that we will see more correction selling. I was Posting charts like this through out Dec as a visual warning that the rally may roll over if the bear market correction has further to go. It CAN roll over in the second daily cycle, so stops remain important. I will look for clues along the way, we need more time, but the next dip as a Daily Cycle Low ( DCL) can be bought with a TIGHT STOP. *Note: Also notice the second daily cycle in Feb & March of 2018. It rolled back to the lows, and the Bull was still in tact, so I want to remain cautious & alert during the second daily cycle.
WTIC – Oil dropped and bounced off of the 50sma ( should I say ‘again’?). It has been choppy and sideways, and the OIL / ENERGY Stocks had been suffered as a result, however…
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OIL DROPPED MONDAY, AND THIS TIME OIL / ENERGY STOCKS LOOKED BETTER THAN OIL.
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OIH – On Monday, OIH, XLE, & XOP all looked pretty good even while Oil dropped in the morning. IS IT TIME FOR THESE TO MOVE HIGHER? The risk is low to enter with a stop below these recent lows, but it MIGHT just remain chopp & sideways. I will discuss a few interesting looking Oil stocks at the bottom of the report.
USD – The USD has been bullish, and I thought that it was a bullish set up, but GOLD is not dropping at the same rate that the USD is rising. I did think that GOLD would drop as the USD pushed higher like this.
GOLD – Gold is dropping and pushing sideways choppy instead of dropping sharply. It was still only day 12 , so there is still time for GOLD to drop further ( or chop further).
GDX – GDX peaked on day 6 so far, and is also just choppy at the top here. I personally think we are going to see more downside on GDX & GDXJ, though some individual Miners appear to be holding up here.
I mentioned in past reports that some Miners may do well on their own, and even ignore the selling. We looked at AU, SBGL, etc. Look up TRX, NGD, and a few others and you’ll see that they actually Popped higher.
DO you remember in early January when I said that NGD has a nice Bullish base ( Similar to what we saw with ALO?). Price can run nicely out of these types of bases.
NGD broke higher yesterday after weeks of sideways chop & flagging. TRX did also.
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So not much if anything has changed in the sectors above. I want to point out that when things get choppy and just move sideways, etc,
– IT MAY BE BEST TO KEEP THE NUMBER OF POSITIONS TO A MINIMUM, and
– KEEP ANY POSITIONS SMALLER UNTIL MORE BULLISH MOVES RETURN
– JUST SIT IN CASH ON THE SIDELINES AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT BEST SET UPS TO TRADE AT A DCL.
Do you remember the deep sell off in November & December, and how choppy even good ‘trade set ups’ became? It was harder to make money under those conditions and I recommended the same thing then. Then suddenly, after the low was in & bases formed ( or a V-Bottom) , it was easy trading as things straightened out. Buyers stepped in and the choppiness went away as prices just ran higher. Trades were more reliable, and Gains were easier to come by. Waiting is not always easy, but when selling dies down and a dcl or ICL is in place, gains are definitely easier to come by than in a choppy sideways indecisive pattern. That said, I do have TRADERS & even Day Traders here, and they trade daily and want to see some ‘trade set ups’, so I will still offer what I see here, BUT please decide if this is for you or not. I will still discuss some trades and trading thoughts below, but for some it may just be best to wait for a better set up, or lower the number of trades that you have open at 1 time.
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Enjoy your Tuesday Trading, or sit tight and wait for the good trades to come to you.
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~ALEX
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CRMD – I have been covering CRMD as a bullish set up for a long time, and as you can see, sometimes it runs higher and other times it gets very choppy. THIS IS NOT AN EASY RIDE, but it has been Bullish. The BIG PICTURE is forming a bullish set up, somewhat similar to August and September in the Red Box, when it formed a large consolidation, broke to new highs, and ran swiftly. It may be preparing to do that again.
Think about this: Though it has been choppy, CRMD has gone from being a 20 cent stock to a $2 stock in just 7 months. The Miners or MJ stocks may do this too, like NGD for example, if you can just endure the choppiness.
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I have been watching Oil/Energy stocks like OAS, LGCY, KEG, WTI, WLL, LPI, etc. How are they looking with Oil just bouncing around sideways above the 50sma?
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OAS – OAS even turned up with Oil down in the Morning on Monday. On this chart, I’m just listing the things that I like on these charts. I didn’t buy yesterdays reversal, but I am still watching this sector. I’d like to see a move above the 10sma & even the 50sma. Some stocks look better than others too…
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CRK – CRK popped about 8 % and looks to again be trying to break above the 50sma after crawling along under it. This looks like a BUY, using a stop under Mondays lows. I actually thought that this was going to run a week ago when it DID get above the 50sma, but it dropped and is trying again, so it has been choppy, but bullishly crawling under the 50sma.
EGY – After releasing a progress report, EGY popped over 12% yesterday, after bouncing off of the 50sma, so it is acting correctly.
FET – Oil Natgas services, this stock actually looks very bullish after releasing earnings Friday. It has been up over 14% 2 days in a row, and I just can’t chase this, but it may be a good one to put on a watch list. If it flags or pulls back to test the 50sma, it may offer a lower risk entry.
So some of the Oil / Energy stocks seem to be perking up. It would be good to look up the news on a stock and see when they release their earnings.
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ANOTHER ‘ NOTIFICATION” or “HEADS UP’ –
This weekend I posted ( Shown below) some charts of the Block chain, cryptocurrency Popping, and mentioned that this sector may be coming to life, so I was giving ‘early notice’ that this may be something you want on your watch list ( it is on mine) as these may be basing, putting in double bottoms , and so on. These could be in the early stages of preparing to move higher. Many pulled back Monday, but they are still looking like they may be setting up to run again. Well I have another Sector of interest, but it is also a difficult one to trade at times…
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Another sector of interest that may be setting up Bullishly. SHIPPERS. Good for the Watch List.
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SHIPPING – Let’s just look at a few charts of the shippers, and I’ll tell you what catches my eye. These look as though they are basing out, may be putting in higher lows, and could move higher over time. I will show you just a few of the ones that caught my eye.
Shippers like TK, ASC, NM, TOO, NAT, DWSN, DCIX, etc have been basing and setting up again. NOTE: THESE CAN ALSO BE VERY FAST, QUITE CHOPPY, AND HARD TO TRADE.
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DWSN – This is a bullish basing pattern that you may be familiar with from other set ups mentioned here. Price moved out of a capitulation low and has been riding along the 50sma. A LOOSE stop can go under the 50sma if this is bought here. For some ( Myself included) this has rather light volume for now.
TK – This seems to be forming a bullish base, similar to NGD. If it breaks above the 50sma, it may be time for this one to run higher. Volumes are good on this one.
ASC – This certainly is NOT an easy ride, but $4.25 to $6.25 are good gains. It regained the 50sma. I wont take this trade though, it is too bouncy for me. A ‘Scalp Trader’ may grab it at the lows of the channel here and sell it 2 or 3 days later.
TOO – A flat base with strong divergence trying to break above that 50sma. Price is being pinched between the 50sma and the bottom of this base. The POP Friday was after an earnings release, so at least that is out of the way 🙂 .
