Friday December 28th- The Bounces
DJIA – We had our 1000+ Point bounce
I had been discussing the Fib Retracement , sentiment, timing for an ICL, Put Call ratios, etc, so we knew that we were due
DJIA – I mentioned that it could be choppy or V-Bottom, but the lows should hold, so you can buy the reversal or buy it if it dips, with a stop under the new lows.
DJIA – The Dow dropped 600 points, and recovered by the close. So…
So in these oversold sectors where we saw reversals, we should continue to see short covering or buying that can push price off of the lows.
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I WILL HAVE TO PROOF READ THIS REPORT FOR TYPOS AFTER RELEASING IT, so please excuse any typos.
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WTIC – From Yesterdays report. We may be at a support level, though I was looking at $40 or $35 support areas before this reversal.
WTIC – Oil dropped too, but by the close, it was green…
XLE – The XLE sold off all day, and then it recovered too. It looks like Buyers or short covering will push these higher too. That was another opportunity to buy or add to positions.
The Oil / Energy stocks that I discussed yesterday also sold off and recovered. I mentioned that I bought GUSH, DNR, QEP, OAS, LPI, and I pointed out a list of others. I will point some of them out toward the end of the report.
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GOLD – Yesterdays report said this ….
GOLD – So today is day 30. Gold is simply a bullish break from a base. I have been expecting a pull back into a dcl, since we are almost on day 30. I mentioned resistance at 1280-1300. IF THIS DOESN’T START TO PULL BACK SOON, IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT LESS LIKELY, THAT IT WILL BULL FLAG AND THEN BREAK OUT. Some Miners are moving higher, others are not .
SILVER – SILVER DID BREAK OUT. Silver can move VERY FAST , and with this bullish break out, I would expect Silver to move higher quickly. The problem that I am having is that MANY Silver stocks are not joining in? Let me show you that at the end of the report. If Silver broke out and moved higher here for 2 days, I would expect silver stocks to be taking off higher.
I have been discussing the ‘Timing’ of this daily cycle. That is what CYCLES do- they simply offer guidance when it comes to the timing from one low (Dcl) to the next low (DCL). They do not say where that low will be exactly, and now I am wondering if the DCL for Miners will be higher than the anticipated deeper dip. Let’s look at this sector.
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GDXJ – I have been expecting something like this due to the ‘cycle timing’. We are on day 30, lows can form any day now, or stretch to day 34, 35, or 36 ( which is even into next Friday)
GDXJ – Though Gold has been pushing higher, Miners have been choppy if you zoom in on the action. That said, this can be bullishly pushing or crawling above the 50sma and under the 200sma, preparing to break out higher.
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GDX 3 charts – 3 ideas
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GDX #1 – Today will be day 30. I have been expecting a drop into a day 33?, 34?, 35? day low. It could look like this and this was my original thought. This could still be what takes place, but …
GDX #2 – With GOLD holding up well, Is it possible that this just grinds sideways preparing to break out? I would say that is a possibility, with a high dcl. I mention this based on some of the action with stronger Gold stocks ( I will show that at the end of the report).
GDX #3 – Technical analysis ( Ignoring cycle counts). A bull flag under the resistance with a break out and back test is also normal technical analysis. The DCL would be a part of the chop as shown, putting in a high dcl. I would still consider this less likely, but we are on day 30 and that dip is coming due anytime now.
ABX – So look at ABX. It broke out and back tested. THIS IS WHAT I am saying GDX could do in the most bullish scenario #3 above. A break higher & back test. NOTE: ABX actually (Using technical analysis) is a buy with that back test. Its should continue higher after that multi-month consolidation.
BTG – I pointed out this multi-month consolidation a while ago ( I bought it, but sold it as time drew closer for a dcl). It is obviously higher than where I sold it. It is also a bullish break out and back test (Choppy). These are bullish set ups at a time when a pull back is due. We have a MIXED bag with the Miners…
We have a MIXED bag with the Miners, because SILVER is breaking out, but many Silver Miners are not reacting very Bullishly …
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CDE – CDE has broken out, I like it, but it was actually down yesterday, with Silver breaking higher.
FSM – FSM was down for most of the day, but closed up 2 cents. 2 cents with a Silver base break out? Odd. FSM did hold above the 50sma, so it CAN be bought with a tight stop if you want to own a silver Miner.
GPL – GPL was looking good with the volume, so I captured this chart. I like it , but…
GPL – It also pulled back into the close, despite Silver breaking out from that base. Anyone could buy the break out when it comes, but for now, silver stocks are acting a bit out of sync with Silver.
HL – Hecla was down 3% with Silver breaking out.
Are these Silver stocks lacking real buying in anticipation of a pull back ? It seems so, but I am still keeping an eye on the sector and KL, AU, ABX, and BTG are still acting strong.
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DNR from yesterday – Expecting a bounce
DNR – DNR and MANY Oil / Energy stocks POPPED 10-20% Wednesday, and then pulled back 5-8% Thursday. Then many also turned green into the close. I expect more of a bounce, as mentioned in yesterdays report.
OAS – This was down about 5-7% yesterday for most of the day, and then it went green, up 3.5%. Short covering or Buyers that want to own these beaten down companies can push price higher. Did you buy it? I added to my current positions.
QEP – QEP was also down all day, and went green in the final 1/2 hr. It closed up almost 2% after being down 5%.
LPI – This is a good company, it was up 20% Wednesday as shown here. It also dropped yesterday, but closed green.
NOG – This was NOG in yesterdays report too, it dropped and closed slightly red. A buy opportunity before it moves higher? Likely so.
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I wrote this in yesterdays report, and will simply repeat it here…
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I will look for pull backs and set ups in this sector. Often they POP, dip the next day, and then continue higher. You may see these dip on Thursday. For now a good list for you to look up charts of could be WLL, PDS, GTE, CHK, SWN, OAS, LPI, CPE, CRK, HK, and so on. I Bought OAS, SWN, QEP, DNR, GUSH. At this point, I do not know how long I will hold them, but I did buy expecting to get a bounce that lasts more than just a day or two.
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So at this point, we had a 1 day dip and then buyers or short cover took over into the close. The General Markets closed Green, Oil & Energy closed green too. I think that these areas put in some good temporary lows, and they are a buying opportunity for at least a good multi week bounce. USE STOPS, and even RAISE STOPS to protect yourself. Also keep position size reasonable for your personal risk protection.
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I will have the Big Picture Weekend report out Saturday. Remember that next week is another holiday shortened week of trading in the U.S.
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Enjoy your Friday trading,
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~ALEX
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CY FROM YESTERDAY – I mentioned a double bottom in CY while the markets sold off. I view this as strength and at least a short term buy. When the markets dropped yesterday, CY did also, but closed green, so hopefully someone was able to get in lower. It seems that we have our ICL in place. STOP UNDER WED LOWS .
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This goes back to a BUY & HOLD HEMP COMPANY that I said I bought and own.
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HIPH #1 – DEC 17th – I mentioned that the 200 sma has acted as support, and then it POPPED big. This is a 23% pop.
HIPH #2 – Later that day it was up 50%, but then it slowly dropped back toward the 200 sma.
HIPH $3 – Yesterday, after tagging that 200sma on VERY LIGHT volume, it popped 21% again, 2 hrs into trading. I mentioned it in the comments section.
HIPH #4 – At the close it was up almost 40%. If it drops to the 200sma again, you may consider buying it, but it also could break out one of these times.
UBX – I Owned this & posted it here several times from the break out of the $12 area. I sold it when it broke the 10 or 13 sma as seen here, but that ended up being the lows and it reversed higher. It is now higher than where I sold it, and it is acting very well under the recent sell off conditions. I may buy it back and…
UBX – Use the 20sma going forward. I would not have been stopped out if my stop wasn’t so tight, but this dip took place during the Market crash and it was hard to trust anything. Everything was crashing or choppy. So this could be a buy again, it does still look like it wants to continue to $20+ (Barring bad news & earnings miss, etc, this is biotech- use proper position size).
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