November 1st – Setting Up

 

SPX DAILY –  Yesterday I mentioned the day 52 lows,  the ‘last engulfing candle’ and probability of a low forming here.   We did get follow through higher on Wednesday.

SPX DAILY –  We did get a pop higher.  It sold off into the close, but I still feel that this is a valid break higher for a dcl. It may drift lower along this trend line and fill that gap though.

SPX WEEKLY 1 of 4- We have a weekly reversal.

 

 

SPX WEEKLY 2 of 4 –  Remember that the up trend was broken for the 1st time in yrs.  That often indicates that a top is in place – at least  for now.  Look at the prior breaks under the 50sma in 2015 & 2016.  The markets went sideways & formed a few double bottom low & traded choppy.

 

SPX WEEKLY 3 of 4 – So we have a weekly reversal,  but will it be a strong blast higher,  and recover that trend line, as shown?

 

SPX WEEKLY 4 of 4-  Or will this remain weak and bounce around like 2015.  Time will tell,  but so far it has had a hard time gaining traction at the lows.  We will keep an eye on various factors going forward out of the lows.  We may be bouncing for weeks, but at the same time entering a bear market now.

WTIC  –  Oil broke to new lows after the Inventory report.  1 more down day will break the Aug DCL (low).  Due to cycle count, I believe a swing low will occur very soon, and …

 

XLE WEEKLY REVERSAL   – The Energy stocks   ( or Gush is the 3x etf) seem to think that OIL will put in the lows soon too.

 I mentioned various Energy or Oil stocks in yesterdays report like WTI, LPI, WPX, OAS.  They gapped open and bounced off of the overhead 10 sma on a daily chart, and still closed green, with Oil selling off.  These are setting up for a trade able bounce in my opinion. 

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UUP – I used this chart to show in yesterdays report a lighter volume push and a measured move having completed. I mentioned that I would expect a reversal soon..

UUP –  So far,  we have that reversal.   I do see other 1 day reversals along the way,  so lets see if we can get 2 days down in a row now. 

GOLD   –  Gold is dropping, we have a swing high, and the 50 sma (not shown)  is at about $1211 while Gold hit $1213.  This , by itself, is a bullish looking set up, but it may be affecting the junior Miners. It is also  a bit early in the count for a dcl, the way they have been stretching into the 30+ day area,  so it MIGHT bounce around the 50sma, or it might break down. This COULD be a 1/2 cycle low, but we are well along here.

 

SILVER    – Silver broke below the 50 sma after spending 2 weeks above it.  This now looks like a long basing process, rather than a break out.

GDX  –  GDX does not look bad, it actually looks like Bullish action,  however it looks a lot like GDXJ did yesterday.  Wednesday GDXJ dropped from down lower from here.  IF this cycle count is correct,  we really should see a dcl soon.  If day 21 was a dcl?  This would only be day 15, which could still bounce as a 1/2 cycle low.  We need a bounce soon though, because GDXJ is looking weaker.  Let’s look at GDXJ …

 

GDXJ   –  GDXJ filled the gap and tried to recover the 50 sma on Tuesday. It broke down Wednesday as Gold sold off further.   GDX held up well.

 

GG   –  Was that just a 1 day reaction to earnings?   GG actually does not look like a bear flag,  it looks rather constructive.

NEM   –  NEM seems to have had a 1 day reaction to its earnings too.   If these recover, it helps GDX.

 

GORO   – Will this be a 1 day reaction too, like GG?  Maybe.  I was in GORO and I got called away from my house & the markets for a few hrs before the market opened.  I was using a mental stop under the 50 & 20o sma for Goro,  so ( Shame on me) I rode most of this down.  That was a pretty big loss.  I didn’t get to check the markets until midday.   We’ll see if this is just a 1 day drop like GG and NEM.   I sold mine and added to Shippers.

 

EDIT:  Gold is up $9 in pre-market.   We’ll see if this is just a bounce or is it a ‘close enough’  tag of the 50sma & will move higher.  If so,  GDX is in good shape, and we can see if GDXJ  recovers it’s 50 sma.

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Let’s see what the rest of Thursday  brings us,  enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX 

 

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DNN  – Uranium Stocks Popped in a big way on Wednesday, and this was DNN.  After losing the 50sma, it burst higher by about 11%.  (Maybe Miners will do this?  Break the 50sma & recover).

 

 

UUUU  –  UUUU also broke higher and closed up about 14%, so…

NXE DAILY   –  I Jumped into NXE as it broke above the 50 & 200sma , and it remains oversold.

 

NXE WEEKLY    –  I checked out the weekly chart and it has been consolidating for many months and could be ready to break free if this sector continues on bullishly.

 

YGYI   –  Some MJ stocks looked good for ‘a trade’,  so I chose YGYI.  Why?  It ran from $4 to $16 in 1 month,  Dropped all the way back to the 50sma, and  I’d like to see if it can gain some traction above the 50 sma here.  Note: I do not like all of the set ups in MJ stocks yet. 

 

CMCM   –  CHEETAH MOBILE has the personality of being a strong runner short term.  It popped out of the lows Wednesday,  and could break a downtrend soon. 

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SHIPPERS  REVIEW & UPDATES   

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SINO had that Double POP out of a base  that I’ve been looking for, so I bought it as it popped here.

 

SINO   – It continues to push higher.  MANY of these have been doing this, as pointed out in prior reports.  The sector is on fire. 

DRYS  – DRYS continues to move higher  ( 6% Wednesday).  This could have a lot of upside left in it too, based on this possible massive inverse H&S. 

GLBS –  I bought this last week and drew this  wedge Monday as GLBS was now at $6.00. I was looking for a pop from a flat topped wedge.

GLBS    – Sorry about the quality of this chart, I checked it on my phone at 12:32 , and it was now pushing on the 200 sma at almost $7.  That could be another ‘Buy’ or place to ‘add’. 

GLBS    –  It then broke out  and was now quickly at $7.69. These move VERY fast.  I think that this still has a lot of upside potential, and . 

 

GLBS AT THE CLOSE   –  It actually closed at $8, Up 26% at the close.   That is how fast these can tack on the gains.  I am still looking for the LOW RISK ENTRIES on other shippers too,  because you don’t want to jump in after it ran up so much, or it could pull back  quickly on you.   SO…

 

 

SHIP    –  I see SHIP as a long consolidation, and it just broke above the 50sma. It is oversold and volume has popped a few times,  so we’ll see if this can get moving upside too.  Since the shippers are  taking turns rising out of the lows,  I bought this, but I may be early.  It would be more of a buy if it really break out & runs higher.   I will then add.  

NM  –   NM is low risk here with a stop under the recent lows.   It might be starting to move higher out of a double bottom low too.   DSX & TNK  are on my watch list too.