What A Nice Surprise
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What was surprising about Monday? It was this- Gold dropped over $17 and the Miners fought their way back to green…
GDX:GLD – I discussed the bullishness when Miners lead Gold, so this is how Golds drop & Miners POP affected the GDX:GLD ratio. Bullish.
We’ll discuss Gold a bit more, but first a quick touch on a few other areas
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GENERAL MARKETS AND THE TIMING FOR AN ICL
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NASDAQ – Back in August I was pointing out that the GENERAL MARKETS would be coming into the time when they could drop into an ICL. This had more upside possible, and then the RED LINE shows how the drop to an ICL in Jan occurred. I thought that we should expect that this kind of drop as a possibility…
NASDAQ – The Big Picture on Aug 9
NASDAQ NOW – In August the NAZ did run higher, but then only dropped for a week & chopped sideways for 3-4 weeks along the 50 sma. Once the NASDAQ gave up that 50sma, it dropped very quickly last week. It is now on the lower trend line. IS THIS IT? Maybe , but lets see 1 more chart…
Is this it? Maybe. It could be bought if we get a reversal on this support line, but it could also bounce & roll over again as a back test of that 50sma, so if you buy a reversal, use a stop at that trend line…
As mentioned in prior reports, the General Markets are also running in various time frames, but are due for an ICL. The DJIA looked bullish, The NASDAQ dropped below the 50sma and plunged, etc., but a DCL and even an ICL is due.
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THE TRICKY GOLD MARKET AGAIN
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As mentioned in the opener: Gold dropped almost $20, Miners closed Green. Trying to make sense of it may be tricky, but I’ll discuss a few thoughts.
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We are at what should be the ICL lows, and this COT report is still VERY Bullish. It is very hard to picture that Gold would break down and drop for a few more weeks, with readings this extreme. ( Thanks JRT, for asking me to post this. I didn’t think it was necessary going into the weekend report, but Mondays drop in Gold does make it worth looking at again).
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GOLD #1 – Crawling along under the 50sma, I have mentioned that it could spend the first daily cycle crawling under the 50sma, and then POP through it in the second daily cycle. The ICL should be the mid August low, so…
GOLD #2 – GOLD dropped and notice that the if the ICL for Gold would be Mid August, we’d be on day 36 for Gold ( That is well into the Time for a dcl). We may be seeing a double bottom low…
GDX #1 – This was my thought at 10:27 a.m. GDX was down, but I wasn’t worried, Read the chart for my thoughts. This ‘crawl’ is what I thought could happen all along for Gold or the Miners, but…
GDX #2 – With GOLD down almost $20, GDX pulled a reversal and went green. NOTICE that the GDX ICL would be Mid September, NOT MID AUGUST LIKE GOLD. Yesterdays reversal was Impressive and…
GDX #3 – Since Golds Daily cycle is day 36, but Miners are on day 19, this reversal COULD blow through the 50sma, and give Miners the other scenario that I had mentioned … “Break above the 50sma and back test the 50sma on a DCL later on“.
GDX #4 – One last thought. GDX broke below the trend line and recovered. It is possible that GOLD will put in its DCL, and MINERS MIGHT put theirs in very early (Day 19 here) and then GOLD & Miners will be in sync, with Miners leading the way. So this could be an early dcl, or the real 1/2 cycle low.
So I can’t say for sure whether Gold will DCL at the same time that GDX does , but both could break above the 50sma soon, What I have been saying is that Miners look Bullish. As of Monday, The action remains bullish .
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Almost everyone here has been very patient and calm, cool, and collected – Almost everyone 🙂 . Try to ignore it if you read someone panicking at every drop and saying things like ‘ This should not be happening if this is an ICL. We should not be at the lows! You better know that the Bull is dead! This is just too weak, we should not be at lows if this is an ICL’, … as though we are doomed. We get that at emotional reaction at every ICL, and it is not based on the facts, so I will do this again…
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HOW MANY TIMES HAVE I SHOWED THIS 2008 ICL CHART? Look again at this 2008 ICL. Where was price on day 14 and then day 19? Price dipped right back down to the lows on day 14, bounced and then went even lower almost breaking the lows!
I have posted this MANY TIMES before, so I will post it again, along with…
GOLD 2015 ICL – IT STAYED AT THE LOWS & ALMOST BROKE THOSE LOWS TWICE 🙂 That is Sideways At The Lows. I’ve showed this chart so many times too. Crawling along the lows, so Yes, it DOES and HAS happened.
It stayed at the lows and rallied a month and 1/2 later . 🙂 It happens, it happened, and until the lows in Gold are broken, it may be happening again. Even if we got a quick shake out to new lows & recovered, just stop out & get back in.
WE CAN LEARN FROM THE PAST – remember that 2008 & 2015 were 2 of the best rallies out of an ICL, but they went sideways at the lows for weeks to knock the Bulls off and raise fear, etc. We may be seeing that now. Anything can happen, we just need to watch things play out, use stops, and be ready to act if necessary. Like my dad used to say to me when I was little, ” There is no crying in baseball, crying doesn’t help your team. ” It can be frustrating for sure, I understand that, but you can’t force a market.
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GDX:GLD AGAIN – Miners leading Gold is bullish
AG – Silver sold off, but many Silver stocks perked up nicely. AG is attempting to break out here at the 50sma
FSM– This is a base , and that looks like a bullish engulfing on a day when Silver sold off.
SSRM- Pushing the 50sma with a reversal when Silver sold off.
BTG – That’s not an ugly chart
GSV – GSV was recommended here a few times. It is still acting correctly / Bullishly too. THIS ONE bottomed in JUNE. IF SOMEONE IS BUYING JNUG AND PANICKING AT EVERY DROP, WHY NOT BUY A FEW OF THESE LEADERS AND TRY TO RELAX. Know yourself as a trader. ( I am not talking to 99% of the people here, just the ones that cannot handle a choppy bottom).
GG– This looks like a ‘shake out’ from a small base. These candles in technical analysis are a ‘Buy’, with a stop under the shake out lows. As you can see, the 50sma has acted as resistance, so you can also put this on a watch list & Buy a break of the 50sma
THM – After Fridays nice 50sma break out, did Mondays Gold sell off hurt THM? Not at all.
It was a rough day for Gold, but it is also due timing-wise to put in a daily cycle low. Even if it breaks the lows as a shake out & recovers, the timing is late. Miners started the day off following that Gold drop , but they fully recovered. Various individual Miners, as shown above, are acting correctly. Let’s see if having the Canadian Markets open on Tuesday helps Gold at all 🙂
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There are a few trade set ups below, but they will mostly be MJ stocks. The General Markets have been a bit choppy, Energy has been perking up, Miners are holding above the lows, with some leaders too, but stocks are a bit choppy in those sectors. As for the MJ stocks? They are just acting correctly. They very well could be the hottest sector for %-Gains around right now. The Miners are still lining up, as seen in charts above, and many are still a possible low risk buy too.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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7:47 a. m. Tuesday morning: For the sake of time, I am not proof reading the section below . Please ignore typos…
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UUUU – I called for a possible drop to the 34 or 50sma, and then a move higher.
UUUU – Close enough, and This is still acting correctly as a possible inverse H&S now.
APHQF – This possible A-B = C-D set up was in the weekend report.
APHQF – I would draw it this way. The RSI is curling up, it is oversold, and we do have a reversal. It is Bullish.
CBWTF OCT 5- I had this in the weekend report saying that I bought the trend line break & Like the set up. Good volume Friday. You could buy here or above that 10sma
CBWTF – It was up 7% Monday, good volume, dropped and filled the gap & came back, and remains quite oversold, so I still feel that this is ready to go, and…
CBWTF BIG PIC – The big picture potential for CBWTF is very promising. I hate to sound silly, but 100 – 200 % is easily attainable with these (As long as the sector stays bullish, and no bad news comes out).
CGC – I showed CGC consolidation in the weekend report using the 50sma, but I often use the 34 sma with these MJ stocks…
CGC – Using the 34 sma, we had a pretty nice reversal. It is not quite as oversold as I like to see, but a set up like this could be bought with a stop as a low risk set up. The sector is still hot.
OGRMF – I drew OGRMF as a set up looking ready to break out.
OGRMF – And I believe that it may be starting. I sold all of my MRMD, and put some of the funds into OGRMF ( I Bought the break out).
TGODF – I bought the last break of the 50sma on TGODF and it was a LOT ROUGHER of a ride than it looks, but I made good gains on it. It dropped below the 50 3 days in a row and recovered each day. Monday it opened above it & Moved higher. It is a low risk buy, but looks at the swings that we had to endure on the September run.
ALEAF – I loved this strong run from 50 cents to $3.50, but I missed it. I bought this break out of a Bull flag and posted this chart in the comments. It was up 12% here, but closed up 17%. Even a fast run to Sept highs is $2.50 to $3.50 in days.
BITCOIN – I briefly discussed BITCOIN with Zoli Nep in the comments. I have been watching it along with the Blockchains stocks, because it was at this time last year that we did so well with MJ stocks and Blockchain stocks running & eventually ending with a blow off top.
BITCOIN – So Zoli liked the triangle forming, and I do too, but I also love the long base that forms after a parabolic blow off. This does look close to being ready to break out above the 50sma, but those blockchain stocks that we made great gains on (like MARA, GROW, DPW, SRAX, etc) Do not wuite look ready, so I am waiting for them to sync up.
We do see a series of Higher lows and price near the 50sma. If I am distracted with Miners or MJ stocks and you see BITCOIN Break the 50sma ( It trades 24/ 7 also) , let me know- and we’ll look into blockchain stocks again. It IS possible that they do not react as quickly too. We’ll see.
