9-13-2018 Oh Please!

If I could ask for 1 wish  pertaining to the markets, that I thought would benefit many people,  it would be…

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QQQ – At  this time, the 50sma is still holding up the QQQ as support again. The markets sold off on Wednesday , but fought there way back again. Volume is heavier on the downside than the upside, so it needs watching.

 

 

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WTIC  –  Oil should be forming a L.T. Daily cycle. Since it can have ( for example)  a 50 day daily cycle, this can peak on day 20 or 25 and still be L.T., but I would have expected it to peak earlier,  like that day 12,  since the last one peaked on day 11 & rolled over. This does look short term Bullish with Wednesdays volume & MACD cross, but is selling off 50 cents in after hrs.  Sept 9 may be a 1/2 cycle low.

 

USD –  Bearish signs, this could help Gold…

1. The USD has peaked on day 4 & is dropping

2. Broke below the 10 & 50sma

3. Turned the 10sma downward

4. H&S Set up , and cannot get above the 50 RSI

 

 

 

 

GOLD  – I drew this at midday, excited that it looked like MINERS were reacting to a possible 1/2 cycle low in Gold.  It was day 17,  which seems a tad short for a daily cycle low the way these have been running lately ( 30 days),  and this would be L.T. if it was a daily cycle low.  That shouldn’t happen in a 1st daily cycle after an ICL, so I’m thinking 1/2 cycle low.

 

GOLD  –  So GOLD does look like it has its ICL in place from the Aug lows.  This would be day 18.  Miners were acting bullishly, and some readers in the comments were buying.  With that, I had someone ask a reasonable question:    ‘So since it is day 17, will gold act weak and just drop to the lows and shake us out again?’.   I am using the next chart to answer…

GOLD  – Answer:  Not necessarily.  2015  had a Day 19 low testing the ICL, and then a nice steady run higher . The DCL doesn’t even show up here.  I doubt that it was the day 10 low or day 19 low. Hopefully we get a move like this after Golds current day 17  1/2 cycle low.

 

GOLD TECHNICALS – Just using T/A, this chart looks like a bullish base at the lows so far. I see an Inverse H&S, The RSI could cross the 50sma (and it has been Months since we’ve seen that strength), and indicators are crossing higher & rising.   GOLD LOOKS GOOD.

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MINERS WERE THE PROBLEM  (and Silver), SO LET’s LOOK AT MINERS

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GDXJ  10 a.m.   –  I usually use the 10sma, but since the drop was steep and the bounces are shallow, I was watching the 8 ema for a GDXJ cross.  This was a swig low unconfirmed with string bullish divergence.

 

GDX – Both GDX & GDXJ had great volume off of the lows. It closed at the 10sma, and GDXJ closed above the 8 ema and 10 sma.   I looked at the burst higher in Feb, and saw it followed by a weak move.  I will be watching for something more than that here,  if we now get  a multi-day short covering rally.

 

GDX WEEKLY – It is only Wednesday, but I thought that the weekly chart looks good. If we get follow through Thursday & Friday, or at least close here,  it is a nice reversal candle after breaking the Dec 2016 ICL.

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I want to show you 3 possibilities

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I expect a rally of course, if GOLD has its ICL in August, and Miners just put there ICL in place at Golds 1/2 cycle low.   That said,  lets just look at this with a couple of ‘possibilities’, so as it plays out,  we can get a feel for what may be happening.

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GDX #1 – This would be how the hoped for rally would unfold.  Maybe a run to the 50sma, stall, break out and run. Yay! The answer to my opening theme pic would be here.  I’m leaning toward this one, but…

 

GDX #2 – If we ran to the 50sma, stalled , and dropped back to the lows for a 1/2 cycle low scare, and then broke higher.  This is bullish, but a bit more painful, right? And then we have door #3  🙁

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I’m SORRY, BUT I HAVE TO POST THIS ONE, BECAUSE IT MIMICS THE JAN 2016 DROP OF MINERS INTO THEIR ICL 1 MONTH AFTER GOLDS DEC ICL

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GDX #3 – This would be that Miners are on day 18 now and they following Gold higher to their peak at the 50sma on day 20+, but then they drop to THEIR ICL like 2016 – over a month after Golds ICL.  OUCH!

#3  is less likely, but we have to have this in the back of our mind.  We will be watching for clues along the way, with courage and not fear.  It should be possible to set & honor Stops to   either lock in small gains or break even from this point onward.

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We should now continue  looking at some bullish   set ups in Miners, since many are starting to look good and shape up (at least short term, possibly more).  I already pointed out leaders like HMY, SBGL, GSS, and a few others. Yesterday I mentioned ‘double bottom lows‘  and “descending wedges’ that were forming with strong divergence, so lets look at what buying opportunities like that may look like, and you can hunt for some Miners.

 

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AG – I grabbed this chart at 11 .m. to show a nice double bottom with strong divergence.  The reason this set up is good is that  you can enter expecting upside, your stop is the lows, and you can raise that stop when it starts going higher.  If this simply ran to the 50sma, it is $5 to $6.30.  Here at $5.40  that would be about 18% gains.

 

CDE – Again, if this runs to the 50sm, it is 18% gains.  This is just a base so far, but if Gold & especially Silver run, so should the Silver stocks.

 

HL – This was HL at 11:30 a.m., Breaking higher and pushing on a trend line.

 

HL – This is how Hecla closed, above that trend line that I drew and with strong volume.  read the chart.

IAG– If you wished you caught the lows, IAG is at the lows.  It ran up & gave up the gains, but it does look like it is outside of that wedge.  I do expect it to run higher.

 

HMY  – Very nice and orderly, This leader continues higher, as does SBGL.

 

NGD – I noticed NGD at 11 taking off  with the daily average volume already in place. It then ran up 33% and closed up 22% with 13 million in volume. Since we are not just seeing 1 or 2 Miners react, but we are seeing MANY up over 5% Wednesday,  it is looking good that we might start seeing some upside action.   Look at that MACD as the price dropped.

 

AGI –  The POP on Wednesday is the biggest one in months.

 

PLG–  I posted this at 10:30 a.m. , it has been in quite a few reports as a bullish base.  PLG is getting the follow through that I have been waiting for.  A break from a base like this can (MIGHT) run straight up higher.  I was asked,  “Where are you selling?”  I am not selling at this time, I have to watch how this unfolds.  I am loaded up around 10 cents,  so I am in a good place when it comes to riding the wiggles.   Note: THIS TRADES ON THE AMEX, it is not an over the counter penny stock.

PLG – I drew this on AUG 2, expecting possibly a run to 30 cents where resistance is solid.

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 In the precious metals Sector, I do like the set up here, and I was buying.  In individual Miners, these Double bottoms can be bought, Wedges breaking out can be bought, I will have more trade set ups as they form in future reports.   IF THIS IS THE ICL – WE SHOULD HAVE WEEKS AND WEEKS OF TRADING AHEAD.

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Side note:  Some have mentioned that they are a bit gun shy about entering a trade after buying so many times and getting stopped out so many times recently.   That is Understandable,  however,  using the system that has been mentioned in the reports,  that should not happen.  I will show you why…

I admit that I entered a few trades of Miners  ( even JNUG )  without stops too,  but stops would have protected your funds until the next buy signal.   I pointed this chart out below .  In this sell off, There have Only been 2 buy points and a stop would have saved everyone from too much pain.     Just 2 entries, 2 exits.      GDX over the 10sma and a trend line break is a buy, and it happened only 2x.    The system works, but it is hard not to trade on how we feel at times, and being well overdue for an ICL in Gold  ( Dec to AUG) I didn’t always use a stop at my buy price or slightly under.

I tried not to say that I bought JNUG & held it, because as a trader, I trade based on my current situation anyway.     I didn’t want people to follow me into JNUG.   Why?  I also owned MJ stocks and gaining   70-100%  on a few  MJ stocks  like CRON, APHQF, and CGC helps me to ignore small losses in my JNUG position.   Other MJ stocks have doubled since then too.  Some here would not buy MJ stocks until just now, but I was buying them over a month ago.  I’d rather that others follow the system recommended here, because it works.

SO GOING FORWARD, IF YOU ARE GUN SHY ABOUT BUYING…

You should not fear entering a position with the current set up if you  USE & HONOR Your stops.   Yes, You could lose a little,  but  stops limit your risk and offer you the opportunity to take the trade presented with low risk.  Also, if you enter a trade and it runs higher,  you can then raise your stop above where you bought it or higher, and if you get stopped out, it is at a   small gain. You really can enter and  not fear ‘ riding the Miners down’, because you dont just ‘ride the miners down’ –  but you may risk a small loss.

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Lets see what Thursday throws our way!  If this is THE ICL,  we have weeks and weeks of trading above the lows, and hopefully a strong rally higher out of an ICL in Miners.  We may finally be at a place where all can make some good gains  together  (some do not trade the MJ stocks) .

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Happy Trading!

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~ALEX

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CLF  – CLF was a buy here…

 

CLF Wednesday – It is following through higher…

 

CLF BIG PICTURE  – I posted this on Sept 7th to show that this could be a BUY & HOLD if you do not wish to trade it.  $10 to $25 wouldn’t be bad  🙂

I am watching some other Commodity (Metals) stocks too.  CRC on a 6 month chart is excellent.   HBM is at the lows, TGB was in the report yesterday,  AKS, X, and others may be setting up too. They are on a watch list at this point.

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Finally

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ACBFF – This shook people out yesterday when it ramped higher and then sold off to red, only to go back to Green.  yes- I still view it as Bullish and I still own it  ( I added). We’ll see.

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THCBF –  I owned this MJ stock,  I sold it,  but now it looks ready to go higher again.  It had Good volume Wednesday and was breaking back over the 50sma when many were pulling back.  I’d put it on a watch list,  just in case it takes off.