Tuesday September 11
I’ve been looking for this pull back in the General Markets, and we are in the timing for an ICL type drop too, so I would expect a deep pull back. At this point, the markets keep turning ‘Mixed’, so let’s just take a look at the current set ups, after last weeks pull back…
DJIA – The DJIA was holding up well, but it looked to be starting to drop on Monday with the MACD rolling over & more room to sell off on the stochastics.
QQQ – You can see that last week the QQQ broke below a trend line and is still under the 10sma & the trend line, so this looked to be selling down as expected.
NASDAQ – The NASDAQ itself is still above the 50sma, and that acted as support on recent dcls, will it hold price up here? I ask because even though the stochastics has room to sell down further, …
TRAN – MIXED MARKETS AGAIN. The Transports have been weak and choppy from February through July, then suddenly they gain their footing and break out to new highs while the General market is selling off? Unless this is a false break out, this is set to run higher from the pennant / flag consolidation.
So at this point, we now have a mixed market direction taking place in the General Markets again. They seem to take turns running here, so I definitely wouldn’t be shorting ( Surprises to the upside in bull markets) and I’m just watching the NASDAQ at the 50sma, and we’ll see if this drop can continue.
WTIC – Acting as expected in past reports. DWT & DRIP do look like they want to run higher, both broke above their 10sma. I am not personally taking those trade set ups.
GOLD – Gold is on day 16, the recent lows in August are still holding up. In fact, the pull back has been normal so far. Day 16 is getting late, and we would like to see a burst higher to a point above the day 8 highs to make this right translated. If not, it could be basing like Dec 2015, when the lows were tested near day 20 ( or it could even break the lows like Miners did).
GDX – We see that when GOLD rallied out of the Dec ICL, Miners rallied strongly too, but then broke down to new deep lows. It was strange action, but by dropping to a new low so quickly and deeply, it seemed to be the ICL for the Miners to me. Like 2016, when Miners ICL’ed 1 month after Gold.
Now we see Miners breaking the lows while GOLD is holding up above the lows again, but bullish divergence is forming too.
JNUG – The set up looks bullish, but the safe idea is to wait for a sign of strength here before trying to enter. That way you don’t risk any immediate downside from here, and can place a stop under recent lows or 10sma once price gets above the 10sma again.
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Along with the bullish looking set ups on some Miners that look to be leading the way off of the lows and remain above their lows ( Like HMY, SBGL, GSS, etc) , I see a lot of strong divergence on double bottom lows or falling wedge lows. It is still safer & best to wait for a break out above their trend line or close above 10sma to avoid a downside surprise, but here is an example…
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SSRM – This is the set up that I am talking about, and I see several Miners with this set up. Double bottom with divergence, or even a bullish falling wedge.
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At this point, I want to show you how, in the past, we have seen GDX put in a dcl or ICL.
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At times, right before a DCL, GDX doesn’t look too bad ( Like we see now), and suddenly the floor sort of drops out as a final shake out. It can be a 1 day slam, it may be 2 days, it may not happen, but I want to show you what I would call a dcl with ‘surprises to the downside’.
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GDX 2016 Drop to Final Lows – We all know what happened in Jan 2016, but look at GDX at this point. only 3 days before the lows and GDX was on a trend line, it made 2 closes over the 50sma, it had a peak late in the daily cycle. That looked fine. Then it began to drop into a dcl with the MACD crossing down. It shouldn’t have broken the November lows at this point,but…
GDX 2016 Drop to Final Lows – Suddenly it added 3 down days. It was actually only 2 days that took price lower, but it seemed like this was a steep scary drop. Why? The last drop was deep, almost a 5% drop, but then that was it and the lows were in…
GDX 2016 Drop to Final Lows – So when we look at it here, there were small days where price was doing ‘nothing’ right before the 3 day slam, and we are seeing that now too. So we COULD suddenly get a slam slam slam into final lows. We don’t know for sure, but I want to prepare everyone for the surprise to the downside, in case it happens.
GDX 2016 Drop to Final Lows – And now look at that ‘peak’ day late in the daily cycle. Very quickly out of the lows, GDX regained & surpassed that entire base of january with a short covering rally.
We are currently hoping for a drop & Rally that will quickly surpass this base with short covering too. We don’t know for sure what will happen from here, so if you were stopped out ( and most are on the sidelines, though I know a few others that have been accumulating miners), it is best to wait for the next proper buy set up. The last one closed above the 10sma & then failed while Gold held up. That is a part of trading near lows, but a close above the 10sma would be another low risk set up.
Enjoy your Tuesday trading or watching from the sidelines until a proper buy set up develops.
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~ALEX
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The MJ Sector remains hot and gains of 10-15% per day are t uncommon. As a warning: Buying an extended stock can be dangerous though, they drop in large percentages too. Enter near low risk areas, preferably just above support.
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APHQF – I sold another portion again on the way higher for APHQF. My first sell was early in hindsight, because this really does want to form the cup by running to JAN highs, but as APHQF rises, I noticed something. While APHQF was up $1.00 (and that was 6-7%) the portion that I sold and placed in another low risk set up was up 10-15%, so I will take profits on another portion, and add it to another set up.
CBWTF #1 – This is a set up that I bought, and I posted that CBWTF was breaking higher…
CBWTF #2 – I have to post in the comments as soon as I see these, because they are suddenly up over 11%. That does NOT mean that the move is over, this is Just breaking out, and… 
CBWTF #3 – You can see the potential, if this also forms a cup by running back to January highs. These go up 10% /day when they get running. Buy it under $1, and sell it above $2? Very possible if the sector remains hot.
TGODF – I posted this near 9:30 a.m. and have been posting TGODF since I bought it in August. It has been bouncing around, but I like this base too. If it forms a cup by running to June highs, it is still almost a double from here.
TGODF – It ended the day up 10% too. The way this moved in May was QUICK. It could just just break higher and keep running. Some have done that, check out TLRY as the next chart, but that is a special one and trades listed on the NASDAQ.
TLRY – Whoa! That was a 1 month long cup type base , and it just took off and never looked back. I missed this one.
EMHTF – This broke out from a flag consolidation Friday and I grabbed this chart before the close
EMHTF – It started the day down, and I mentioned ( to Tammie) that I still like it and I added to my current position.
EMHTF – It closed up only around 5%, so I expect more upside. If it pulls back , I may add again.
GRWG – Also mentioned in past reports, including the weekend report for the long base, This is still a Buy.
MPXEF – Tammie asked me about this one, and I drew this up and said that I would watch for it to tag the 50sma. She said she added some anyways, and…
MPXEF – Boom, it decided not to drop to the 50sma after all. This sector is really heated up.
CVSI – I changed my mind…Ignore this, it may be a bit too risky. I captured this at 2:41 P.M. It actually closed up near $4.50 ( up 36%) an hr later. I liked the reversal on the 50sma, and a run to recent highs could be a double, but this is HIGH RISK. It may be worth watching though. Another tag of the 50sma could offer a lower risk buy, but this may just take off higher now.
