August 25th – Do The Weekend Swing Dance
Friday seemed like some sort of an anti-gravity day, with most sectors climbing nicely higher. We even had Swing Lows enter the dance floor, so let’s take a look at our current market set ups…
RUSSELL 2000 – We looked at IWM and TNA earlier this week as buy signals, and we have follow through. Raise stops and see if they continue higher …
SPX WEEKLY – The SPX is at resistance, and started to push through on Friday. I honestly expected this to drop down to either that middle line or bottom line, because we are due for an ICL in the SPX. If this continues higher, that is fine, but in the back of your mind, expect a pullback ( tighten stops), because…
NASDAQ WEEKLY – This now really looks to be reaching near the apex. It does have a little more room, but they tend to break BEFORE the apex. IF this breaks and runs higher, it could be what we saw in Nov 2016 -Feb last year ( See chart). No ICLs showed up.
WTIC FROM WEDNESDAY INVENTORY REPORT – I’ve been discussing day 42 as a dcl and it Popped on WEDNESDAY above the 10sma as confirmation. Notice the 50sma at $68.79.
WTIC WEEKLY – We did NOT break $68.72 yet, so Oil is still under the 50sma on a daily, but now we see that Oil put in a strong reversal by the end of the week, and this is a weekly swing low (unconfirmed).
OIL – The same chart – I am expecting an ICL and so I expected a drop below the June lows, probably to the 50weekly ma, and that didn’t happen yet. So I have to say that This MIGHT be the ICL, but look at that reversal low from June. It too was a weekly swing low that ran straight up for 2 weeks ( remember the day 11 peak? See the daily chart above too.) So This could also do that and then roll over into the deeper ICL, so it is playable as a long, it just needs watching. Several Oil / Energy stocks looked bullish at these lows.
USD – The USD finally dropped, bounced for 1 day, and dropped again. That helps GOLD to bottom. This could be an a-b-c down, and Gold would bounce that way too. Notice that this drop is not much deeper than prior drops of June or July, but shows up as worse than others on my lower indicator. A sign of weakening.
USD WEEKLY – We do have a swing high on the weekly chart and it is very overbought. I discussed a ‘False break out’ a week ago, if this rolls over, and we may have a false break out to get the $Dollar Bulls loaded long.
COT – This is absolutely beautiful to Bulls. The Specs are now short ( Dumb Money) and Smart Money (which is always short as a hedge) Are actually not short & even long. VERY ICL – like.
GOLD DAILY – That 1 day drop Thursday panicked a lot of people out of Gold & Miners, but the POP Friday was a break above the down trend & close above that 10sma . The volume at the lows was capitulation type selling. This looks to be the ICL, day 6 and GOLD is a buy.
GOLD WEEKLY – No weekly Swing Low yet, but that final plunge was so deep that we have to climb back up. Notice the 2 indicators below price. This selling was SO STEEP, that it compared to the major sell off of 2016, so the lower indicator crossed up, but can’t cross the zero line yet. At an ICL, both indicators usually cross the zero line, except for 2016. That was week 2. This is as extreme, so I believe we are in week 1, at the ICL.
GOLD WEEKLY – That was a strong reversal candle for the weekly chart
GOLD S 30 MINUTE CHART SHOWED ACCELERATION
SILVER – Reversal at the lows too.
GDX – If you think you ‘Missed the move’ in Miners, this should help. 🙂 It is a BUY due to the fact that GDX & GDXJ Closed above the 10sma on the daily charts. Stops are below the recent lows. Look how this ran in Dec 2016- you have NOT missed the move.
GDXJ THE BULLISH MOVE – With so many extremes, the FLUSH OUT CAPITULATION, the sentiment, the Extreme COT, and ‘timing’ for an ICL in Miners ( Dec or Feb to now), THIS IS WHAT I EXPECT. YOU HAVE NOT MISSED THE MOVE 🙂
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However, to be fair, I feel that I should show the bull & bear view. The Above chart is what I expect from an ICL, but this would be a bearish view.
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GDXJ BEAR – If you were a bear (and there are still many), you would see it like this and you would “Short” the trend line tag. I’m thinking that That phase of short cover is what could lead to the next blast higher, but for now this is what a bearish view would look like in their eyes.
I am excited for the Precious Metals over the next few weeks. GDX & GDXJ are a BUY, since they closed above the 10sma ( Gold is a Buy) and I will look for good ‘set ups’ to form over the next several days in individual miners too. Next week should be a LOT better than the past few weeks in this sector.
Also, as pointed out in the reports last week, the Medical Marijuana Sector has been absolutely ‘Smoking’ – just killing it, and other areas of Tech & Biotech are set up nicely too. Please go back to Thursdays report for a list of Tech stocks, if that is your preference, many are following through and remain bullish. I will point some out at the end of this report too.
I will be extremely busy with individual set ups, but I will try to cover as many sectors as I can. Again, the MJ stocks have been popping 15-30% each day, and some are day after day, so there is a lot to cover.
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Enjoy your weekend, I am going to rest up for what I expect to be an active week of trading next week! As always…Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!
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~ALEX
ADDITIONAL THINGS OF INTEREST
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– If I tried to fit in the end of this report everything that I wanted to show you, it would become another even larger report, so I just want to cover a few things of interest.
APHQF FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS REPORT & AUG 20- recommending for days .
APHQF LATER FRIDAY – These are Popping, flagging, Popping, flagging, etc. The down days are hard to ride, down 7-14% at times, but the run is very profitable. This is up almost 100% since AUG 14.
CRON – I bought this above $6 and $7 and recommended it here at the 50sma, it has almost doubled in 2 weeks too.
I mentioned both CGC & CRON on the Aug 14th lows, this is where I bought CRON and added CGC on a gap open and attempted gap fill the next day. They were LISTED MJ stocks, making them more attractive to some. CGC was $24+ and …
CGC – It is now $45! CGC gapped open on bullish news and traded there for 3 days,. It has only had 1 down day since that gap open. This is up 80% from the shake out lows.
CBWTF – This initial POP was mentioned and bought by me near 65 cents. I added again as it flagged. NOTE: hese flags seem to run to the 8 ema.
CBWTF – I put this in Fridays report and it was up another 11 %. Doesn’t it look like the potential for higher price is quite valid? It’s at $084 now. Look at last Decembers run .
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I had a list of TECH and other stocks in a long report Thursday. As a reminder, Many are still valid, even though they moved slightly higher.
For example: Here are a view of those set ups…
PVTL – It is slowly spreading out higher. A but above the 50sma. This can run to former highs, a nice trade.
TRXC – This is pushing higher, but is still a buy.
This was my first recommendation of VSTM AUG 14 at $8.00
VSTM on AUG 22, buy now it was at $8.82. Nice trade, but still pushing higher as a Buy ( or add).
VSTM is still moving slowly higher and is currently at $9.38. This has been a good trade and can just continue higher, so I would continue to hold on, but also buy any dips to the 10sma.
FINALLY –
VJET – I posted this BASE and that DDD has had a great run in this sector. Notice the divergence in the RSI &MACD.
I posted this close up too, it really looked set up to pop. I did not buy this one because I was buying a few different set ups , but …
VJET – It sure did POP on Friday. I know of at least 2 readers that took this trade after looking at DDD and seeing the base that I pointed out as a low risk set up. I literally have hundreds of readers, so I’m sure there were others looking for a Tech set up that entered this trade too, and congrats!
