(Part 2) Sometimes They Just Get Tired
Nov 7 Weekend Report (part 2)-
Bear on a Tear! Bears can be powerful when on the attack, and Bear Market sell-offs are no different! Sometimes, however, they just get tired. In Part 1, I was pointing out a few other hated sectors that have been selling off viciously and showing how they are setting up at their lows in various ways. We caught Energy (XLE) the day of the lows mid October, and they bounced and double bottomed and so on. COAL / Uranium stocks similar…so what about Gold, Silver, & Miners? LAST WEEK I saw some interesting things and want to share them with you now. To The Charts!
Audio & what I wrote are almost the same, audio is 20 minutes, if you dont have time, reading it is almost the same. AUDIO = click here wkend report part 2
GOLD WEEKLY
Gold rejected the lower price/break down last week and closed at the highs, just shy of breaking back into that trading area. We want to see that this week. Will we? Look at the Middle indicator (Histogram) & the RSI. At new Price lows , they usually drops too. We hit new price lows, break down lows, and the Hist held up. I like that divergence.
At the end of Part 1 I said …As I write GOLD is dropping straight down $6 and it will again be difficult to post a BULLISH report, but I would actually like to see GOLD crash down to $1154!! I would! (He said as GOLD continues to drop) 
We are now down $12 to $1166. I am O.K. with that.
Both GDX & GDXJ had MASSIVE weekly volume reversals. Here the GDXJ WEEKLY shows that volume & a reversal candle. Getting back into tht trading range of the past 1.5 years is bullish. some wait to make sure it doesnt just “Test” that break down. I think it will recover.
GDX WEEKLY – Its a bullish set up with that reversal. The “SAFER” buy comes later, but then you have to deal with sideways moves and possible pullbacks soon after entry.
The volume was so high right off the bat that I was tweeting these charts to encourage others to see what I was seeing.
For example , GDXJ 4 million in the first 1/2 hr…we used to get that in an entire day. It was going to be an epic day in GDXJ & GDX I.M.O.
GDX – Similar note left hand corner = 12 Million in a 1/2 hr!
Some people may want to trade Energy / Uranium / Coal / natgas / or other sectors that seem to be a little more established at their lows. Here are where “SAFER” entries could be on Miners, but also you could look for a break above certain Moving averages, and then a pullback to higher lows? A break above trend lines and then a “TEST”? We’ll watch for it.
GDX
GDXJ
The Bears that gathered late at the feast , got smoked. Imagine looking at DUST & JDST Wednesday and saying , “I want a piece of that action. JDST $100 here we come as GOLD drops to $1000!!” Ouch. Maybe a bounce in JDST and a drop in Gold will help.
Next – I want to show you what is to me (SO FAR) an AMAZING feat of Tech Analysis . I have seen this on daily charts in smaller time frames over and over, but to see it in this time frame is something else.
This is the HUI– (CLICK TO ENLARGE)
1. In 2004&2005, Miners did a double bottom and took off upside
2. in 2008, HUI dropped ALL THE WAY DOWN to tag the Break out of 2003. It “BROKE SUPPORT” at theat double bottom low and recovered – rejecting lower prices and was satisfied in all areas.
3. We just sold off all the way backdown there, broke THOSE 2008 lows (Which were testing a 20043 break out) and we just broke down and reversed last week. That is rejecting that break down of the 2008 lows and getting back inside the trading range. In my T/A – this is a monthly chart, but if we continue higher, we have “Tested” and “rejected” the 2008 lows, and Miners should be done.
4. SO_ IF GOLD continues to $1000 later on in 1 final leg down, I would expect Miners to hold up better. This is a VERY bullish set up if it holds for the month of Nov.
5. P.S. Look at the monthly MACD.
Now if you thought that was cool (or was it only me?) – The next part was really exciting for me too! I believe that movements on a chart are merely human buying/selling/ emotional extremes/ and emotional recoveries and so on. The design painted on one chart is painted by investors and traders and thats why it often repeats…herds of people are the same throughout time and history repeats itself.
Follow me on this-
1. This is a UPTREND, gets a little frothy and a blow off top occurs. (#3 & #4) It drops and consolidates and then drops again! Forms a triangle (#5) and then BREAKS DOWN! This is obviously going much lower…correct? be afraid, be very afraid !! IN FACT- Think of how many shorts would add here on the break down!
2. THE CHART Below is GLD– Its a longer time frame, but human behavior has painted a similar pattern …
I’ll repeat the above RIGHT DOWN TO “BREAK DOWN OF THE TRIANGLE”. Think of the shorts adding here too.
Scrolling up & down looking at chart 1 & chart 2…they arent very different. They are more similar than different. Did you know that everyone thinks chart #1 is going much higher, yet the same people think that chart #2 is foreboding and doomed to crash? Time will tell, I dont know what will happen, but …
3. Chart number 1 is …here…Killing the shorts . And look at that volume out of the lows!! Shorts on the wrong side?
( It is almost the same chart pattern in different time frames, we’ll see what happens to chart #2 )
I wanted to share that comparison that I found in my “Outside The Box” research, because BIAS and Emotions need to be set aside. Often the MKTS do what they want and its RARELY what the crowd think. The crowded trade. I read the blogs and here a lot of “GOLD broke those lows, Gold $800- $1000 by yr end! Maybe, but if we reverse here first and put in a shake out, you dont want to be short. IF GLD does as NATGAS did (and we are starting to see commodities rally all at once)…it could be a sweet bullish trade.
Its early yet, and we have to watch things unfold, but as of last week…I went long . I said in PART 1 that I’d like to see GOLD drop actually, to about the $1154 area. WHY?
My chart of the possible “Final Flush” that I posted Friday was this … This was my BUY
This is how it played out (click to enlarge) . Bullish, but I see on this chart reasons that it may drop to the orange square. Could it “TEST” the break out at NFP? Yes. I”d rather it do it overnight tonight (Sunday) then later. Its also like pulling a slingshot back to give it energy to push above $1179 . If & When we break above $1180…I want Gold to not look back for a bit.
SO there is a lot to discuss, I’m out of time for now. I may post again soon, if things are still acting correctly to share with you again what I am watching. DO NOT EXPECT a straight move up. IT MIGHT…like NATGAS, just take off higher, but it doesn’t have to . THAT is what I will discuss next time, and of course….there will be plenty of charts! 
Thanks for visiting – I hope this was helpful, please share with others if so& thanks in advance!
~ALEX
Great job Alex. I’m bullish. I think a lot of us are, just hard to pull the trigger after that multi year bear.
Hard to pull the trigger on todays sell off, but in my next report, I will show the bullish side again. (And thank you)
Great job Alex. I’m bullish. I think a lot of us are, just hard to pull the trigger after that multi year bear.
Hard to pull the trigger on todays sell off, but in my next report, I will show the bullish side again. (And thank you)
NFP?
Non Farm Payroll report released Friday at 8:30 a,m. Eastern
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/11/05/gold-traders-watching-to-see-if-payrolls-report-reinforces-fed-view-on-labor-market/
NFP?
Non Farm Payroll report released Friday at 8:30 a,m. Eastern
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/11/05/gold-traders-watching-to-see-if-payrolls-report-reinforces-fed-view-on-labor-market/
Energy sector is nicely building up, UEC is on the move, is it too late to step in? 😀
I’m sorry ARU – I was away today & didnt get this question in a timely matter. These Uraniums are ROCKETS..but they will eventually have a pullback, and for a low risk entry, you really need to buy on the way down, or just breaking out, etc.
UEC is breaking to recently new higs, butIF it pulled back say 50% of the recent move and you got in now…it would hurt. IF I got this on time, DNN was closing a gap, I would have said try that (less extended).
Thanks for being here tho , ARU
Energy sector is nicely building up, UEC is on the move, is it too late to step in? 😀
I’m sorry ARU – I was away today & didnt get this question in a timely matter. These Uraniums are ROCKETS..but they will eventually have a pullback, and for a low risk entry, you really need to buy on the way down, or just breaking out, etc.
UEC is breaking to recently new higs, butIF it pulled back say 50% of the recent move and you got in now…it would hurt. IF I got this on time, DNN was closing a gap, I would have said try that (less extended).
Thanks for being here tho , ARU
Looks close setting up for “a safer GDX bet”
Closer, yes….yet scary to buy, right? : )
Looks close setting up for “a safer GDX bet”
Closer, yes….yet scary to buy, right? : )
Wow, I thought it would retrace today also but not so deeply or quickly. +25% for NUGT Fri and back -20% at the lows today. Too much in each direction. So I playing a short snap back for tomorrow, but hard to trust long term in a bear market with this kind of volatility.
Hi Cason- I will have a report in the morning, I am still seeing things the same, nothing has changed overall (I wanted less volume in GDX/GDXJ selling, but its within the parameters that I go by).
Looking forward to it! Major inflection point nearby with historic volatility here. Vol last 5 minutes was incredible. Appreciate your reports very well thought out and insightful. I’ll be ready when miners are…
Wow, I thought it would retrace today also but not so deeply or quickly. +25% for NUGT Fri and back -20% at the lows today. Too much in each direction. So I playing a short snap back for tomorrow, but hard to trust long term in a bear market with this kind of volatility.
Hi Cason- I will have a report in the morning, I am still seeing things the same, nothing has changed overall (I wanted less volume in GDX/GDXJ selling, but its within the parameters that I go by).
Looking forward to it! Major inflection point nearby with historic volatility here. Vol last 5 minutes was incredible. Appreciate your reports very well thought out and insightful. I’ll be ready when miners are…