Tuesday August 7th
SPX – The SPX actually made a new daily cycle high on Monday. That is a peak on day 26 so far, and that leans toward being R.T. , but this also looks like it wants to continue higher. Prior highs and the upper trend line is a bit higher than current price. SPX looks like it wants to run to the circle.
NASDAQ DAILY – The NASDAQ is not at prior Daily cycle highs at this time, but moved higher on what looked to be solid volume. The MACD & RSI look to be weakening, and a large rising wedge is forming here, as mentioned in the weekend report and past reports. It too can run to the upper line and…
NASDAQ WEEKLY – From the weekend report. This really looks toppy, and there is no fear, so you have to imagine that almost all of the big buyers are already invested in it.
WTIC – Oil has been very choppy as we watch this daily cycle play out. I still feel that day 21 is too early for a daily cycle low, but this bear flag looks very similar to the June one, and that one broke out higher. I am just allowing this to play out, expecting a drop, Wednesday is the Inventory report that often affects Oil.
USD WEEKLY – I wanted to start with the weekly chart, because it is bearish looking at resistance and is quite overbought. That said, we really don’t want to see the USD break & close above the 95.59 area.
USD – I am honest with myself in my analysis, I have to be, so when I look at the daily chart , I see that the MACD looks bullish and the RSI looks bullish. I would like to see this go sideways or drop NOW. So far the daily price is held up by the 50sma.
UUP – At least the UUP looks like it wants to reverse & move lower from here. We’ll have to wait and see.
EDIT: USD Tuesday a.m., and its COT – As of 6:30 Eastern this morning the USD is dropping and we have a Bearish COT. Look how wide that spread is, that is very bearish for the USD.
GOLD COT – Reminder that this is GOLD COT is much better than the Dec ICL.
GOLD – Indicators are not following the selling at this point, so we have bullish divergence. We want a break above this trend line & close there.
GDX – I don’t like to use cycles for Miners, I like to just use the metal, but GDX is on day 26 , with new lows. Now look at the price- $20.90. People are saying that it just keeps dropping every day, lower & lower. Is that true? Well, again note that we are at $20.90…
GDX – When I showed this chart, the close on Aug 2nd ( lats Thursday) was $20.94. We are 4 cents lower. I even mentioned that we need to expect a possible flush to even under $20.00, so this is what we have to expect for now. Keep in your minds these prices in Blue on the chart, THAT would be a stop run. $20.50 would do it, but I have said $20.00 or less to mentally prepare us for something worse.
GDX – This was AUGUST 2 I mentioned that the last drops to that area were a ‘Spike down” in price ( or this acts as support). We are only 4 cents lower as of Monday. Please be mentally prepared for a possible spike down. If we just find support here again, YAY, but for now let’s mentally be ready for a drop.
GDX – August 1st, prior ‘shake outs’ at the 200 weekly MA. That 200 MA was at $20.94, so we have slightly broken below it yesterday.
GDXJ – GDXJ is really a complex sideways consolidation. I noticed that each Intermediate cycle has a ‘false break out‘ above its on trend line, and then a drop ( Green circles). The last move above a trend line was a long sideways move and now it sits on that break out as a possible back test. It is a complex little consolidation.
EARNINGS – One of our readers Gary M. sent in some earnings release dates that our readers may want to take note of, I wrote them down here. Some earnings releases have not hindered the Miner, others have, but since Miners are selling down, one may wish to sell if we reach that earnings day and the Miners are not yet rallying out of an ICL…
AUY – AUY had earnings and it popped and has held up rather well with things selling off. It popped and has had a normal pull back, but…
EXK – EXK released earnings and it had already exhibited warning signs. It broke the 50sma for 4 or 5 days and then ‘back tested it’ for 4 or 5 days and failed. That was 2-3 weeks under the 50sma. I owned it and didn’t sell before earnings. Earnings was the trigger for a drop to the 200sma, so I sold it that morning. I would say that it COULD continue to the blue line if Miners shake out.
MUX WEEKLY ( By request). It may be at support after breaking out & back testing. A stop can be placed under the support area, since a GDX flush out could possibly break it down.
My point is simply that with Earnings, we are getting mixed reactions and one may want to consider that if you are holding a Miner due to release earnings. Until we get an ICL, traders may not ignore earnings. Some that ddn’t seem bad still dipped down. If an ICL was already in place, they may have continued higher, so…
1. Know the risks in Miners, especially without a confirmed ICL
2. Always use and honor stops
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AG #1- I have been watching AG, this is one that I would like to own. It is pushing on the 200sma, should I jump the gun and buy it? No! A sell off ‘stop run’ in Miners could give this another reason to die at the 200sma. This could be a ‘back test and’ …
AG #2-
This could be a ‘back test’ and Fail like EXK, right? Also look at what an a-b = c-d type of drop could become. Ouch. I want to wait and make sure this is not a bear flag. I’ll wait for the ICL I see if this can recover & prove itself first, before entering. That was a great run higher from Feb ICL to July Peak, lose to $5 to $8.50, but it needs to regroup and draw buying interest in again.
SVM – Even SVM is one that I am waiting to buy, and this looks strong suddenly. I’d still rather wait for a GDX / GDXJ flush out or ICL. I COULD buy it with a tight stop at the 50sma, but I am personally going to wait, since NOW miners are not resisting Golds selling like they were in April / May.
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Reminder charts are below, enjoy Tuesdays trading.
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~ALEX
REMINDERS FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT
GDX – The recent drop (from $23 to $20.90 so far) should disappear once the coming rally unfolds. Also…
GDX Expectations- If we got even 1/2 of the 2016 Rally, this $23 to $20.90 so far will fade away rather fast, but I admit, this is one long drawn out process this time. 2016 was too!
CHECK THIS REMINDER OUT
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DEC GOLD ICL 2015– We did NOT know if this was the ICL at this time, but THIS WAS NOT QUICK AND EASY EITHER. October, November, & December 2015 saw 43 days of endless selling, and then a crash down on day 10 after lows were in? REMEMBER THIS 3 MONTH SELL OFF – it was VERY REWARDING LATER
GOLD 2015 ICL was a long slow sell off in October & November too! Day after Day after day, and then the bottom? Easy? No, That bottom went on for weeks too, threatening the lows, so it is not like we have not seen this before, it is just hard to endure without constant reminders. That January / Feb ramp up continued even higher and erased the pain of the slow sell off.
SPX: GOLD – THIS RSI IS EXTREME AND NEEDS SPX TO DROP OR GOLD TO MOVE HIGHER TO BALANCE. SPX does look like it now wants to run to the top of that channel again, so this RSI will get even more extreme.
