JULY 6TH- FRIDAY
It is the final trading day of the week, so this report will just be a quick summary and will also include a few trade ideas
SPX – I think that we have a dcl. In tech analysis, you would expect a possible run to the upper trend line, but…
…I WANT TO REPEAT THAT I still think that we have an ICL drop ahead. A move out of these lows could be a bit shorter than normal, but with a 40 day daily cycle, you still may get 2 weeks higher out of the lows, and still see some nice trades. The set ups in the Tech Sector look bullish, so I will post some trade ideas with the idea that I am expecting the next Daily cycle to be L.T. & an eventual drop into an ICL, so the trades MIGHT be a bit more short lived. A day 15 peak on a L.T. Daily cycle is still 15 days higher ( 3 weeks). We’ll see how things play out.
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COMPQ – The NASDAQ has been strong and ran to new highs. The TECH SECTOR has been a good place to trade in 2018. Some simply use TQQQ ( which is a buy now) or UPRO, others want trade ideas, so let’s look at a few Tech companies.
SQ – I have traded this several times, and it has done very well. It only dipped 38%. I’d consider it a low risk buy with a stop below the 50sma, but a ‘back test’ of the trend line also would see this tag that 50sma & 38% again. It is a bullish set up though.
TWTR – TWTR is bull flagging. This just ran from $27 to $47. TWTR remains strong.
AMD – This has been a very strong run and the pull back has also been minimal. It regained the 10sma yesterday and could be bought with a tight stop. It MIGHT still want to tag that 50sma with an a-b-c type drop, but if the sector rises out of a dcl, I think this will just run higher too.
CREE – CREE has made some nice gains coming out of the lows. Notice that many of these tech stocks have Higher highs and higher lows, and that is bullish. This would not be an easy BUY & HOLD, but it looks like a BUY here at the lows again. Look at the chart. Buy the low, hold for 2-3 weeks, get out at oversold. That worked in Feb & May ( & July?).
CY – The same with CY. It makes nice %-Gains on its run higher every other month and is at the lows again. It looks like you buy CY at the lows, hold for 2-3 weeks, and get out 🙂
WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN = CONSOLIDATION OF GAINS
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IQ – Not all Tech stocks are simply a buy here, look for a proper set up. These 2 are the IPOs that ‘just would not die’. They have basically been cut in 1/2 in 3-5 days as they consolidate their gains. They are still being rejected at the 10sma, may drop to the 50sma, so they may need a bit more time.
HUYA – $50 to $28 in 5 days and still rejected at the 10 sma (so far).
GOLD – I feel that GOLD has put in the ICL, because the Miners have been running higher since last Thursday, but we really do need a bit more follow through. This would be Day 1 as of Thursday. We will look for follow through, Gold is very oversold and has plenty of room to move higher in the coming weeks.
GOLD LIVE – This is Gold as I wrote. It looks to be a bullish set up, flagging sideways after a small rally out of the lows, but it can go either way from here in the short term.
GDX – You can see that Gold bottomed Tuesday, and the Miners bottomed a week ago. This looks like day 4 out of the lows, and GDX & GDXJ have regained their 10, 50, & 200sma. So did GOLD put in The Lows? This makes it seem likely. Miners are leading.
I have been discussing buying Miners fro a while now, and we have had plenty of ‘set ups’ to choose from in recent reports. You can see yesterdays report for a few ideas, for example. I mentioned buying AXU under the resistance, and it broke out further yesterday, so what we are seeing is good follow through & it is accompanied by good volume…
AXU
AUY held up yesterday and still looks like it wants higher prices. So I am still holding my Miners, I have added to some of those holdings like AXU, FSM, EXK recently, and things look Bullish in this sector.
ICL PLACEMENT – How is this for homework? 🙂 One of our readers, CAL, was wondering what day of the week is most likely that we see an ICL in Gold? He went back & looked up past ICLs to see which day of the week ICLs took place, both in GOLD & GDXJ. He emailed it to me, but I Just had to share it here ( I have not had time to do a double check, but I want to post it anyway). I was even surprised to see how many FRIDAY ICLs there were. This list below basically shows that an ICL can come on any day of the week. I Think that Golds ICL is likely in place, and the Miners really are acting that way, but this is how I think that this kind of homework can also help us out…. Should you be afraid to buy on a Friday? According to this list, many ICLs actually occurred on Friday, so I wouldn’t hesitate to buy on a Friday if I see a Miner set up that I like and I feel that the ICL is in or Due. Thanks Cal. The Green mark meant that GDXJ bottomed before Gold, similar to what we are seeing now.
The weekend report will cover the Big Picture, and if you have been following along for the last few weeks, then you already know that things are starting to shape up nicely! The weekend Report should be released by sometime Sunday evening, I have a family reunion on Saturday and will be driving there tomorrow.
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ENJOY YOUR FRIDAY TRADING & YOUR WEEKEND!
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~ALEX
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THE REMINDER FOR THOSE BUYING INDIVIDUAL MINERS:
I personally do buy individual Miners, but there is the added risk of a company specific ‘surprise’ that could cause price to temporarily drop, even though Gold is rising. IT may come with an earnings surprise or the dreaded announcing a public offering. Some of the Miners need to raise funds to do business, so they offer their stock in large quantity at a discount price to a Big Buyer. It is a sale price to a Big Buyers and allows them to raise some funds quickly. I have found that this often happens after the stock has made a nice run higher and looks attractive. FOR EXAMPLE: You may have a company stock that ran from $2 to $3.50, and behind the scenes, they offer 1 million shares at $3 to raise a quick 3 million. The stock will open at that $3 price. 🙁 It doesn’t happen all the time, but it only takes 1 time to leave a bad taste in your mouth, and it is often difficult to know which Miner will or will not do that. To avoid the pain of a public offering, I try to make sure that I own a basket of Miners. That way, you likley have 5 Miners that ran higher, 1 may drop on a public offering, but the other 4 cushion that blow & still run higher.
You also can stick strictly to ETFS like GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, etc, ( or leveraged ETFs, but they offer risks of their own). When Silver gets running, AGQ is only a 2x leverage to Silver that usually acts correctly.
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CVSI – I posted this in the comments section and mentioned that I bought it yesterday, even though I am focused on Miners. It had a break from the down trend, recaptured the 10sma, Volume was good as of 2:30 p.m. and the sector seems to be recovering.
CVSI – By the end of the day it surged up higher & closed up 20%. This sector may be coming to life again.
