Wednesday June 27th
OIL looks very strong, and Wednesday is Oil Inventory.
WTIC – This looks so strong since putting in a swing low on day 49, doesn’t it? But again…
XLE – I cannot understand why OIL/Energy stocks aren’t responding as bullishly. At least if this plays catch up after the Oil inventory report, you haven’t missed a move & can buy it ( or GUSH, ERX) without missing the move.
For anyone interested in Energy: ERX does NOT look good yet, but GUSH does as it bounces along the 50sma. This could be a buy with a tight stop, or wait until after the oil inventory report is released. If Oil drops, this may fail, since the MACD is a tad weak.
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EDIT: GOLD put in an even lower low over night. It has reversed higher as I write this at 6:30 a.m. Eastern. THIS IS A LIVE CHART OF GOLD THIS a.m. with a slightly lower low on day 26 here.
GOLD – On Day 25, we got another new low. It can get frustrating, but this is not a bad thing, the deeper we go, the more spring back it will have on the way out. In fact, let me show you something …
“It can get frustrating, but this is not a bad thing…”
GOLD ICL LAST JULY 2017 – I wanted to show you how the July 2017 ICL formed just 1 year ago. Notice that at that time,
1. We also had what looked like a possible low in the orange square…
2. Then a drop – BOOM!
3. Then another few days of a possible low at the blue arrow,
4. And BOOM! – Another DROP! THAT WAS FRUSTRATING TOO, BUT…
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” THAT WAS FRUSTRATING TOO, BUT…”
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ONCE THAT LOW WAS IN, LOOK AT THAT RALLY!!
THIS IS THE GOLD JULY 2017 ICL, AND THE RALLY WAS WELL WORTH THE WAIT! Those drops into the ICL faded away from your thinking quickly.
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SO IT IS GOOD TO JUST REMEMBER THAT THIS IS HOW ICLs FORM. THEY CAN FRUSTRATE YOU. THEY WILL TRY TO KEEP YOU AWAY & UNINTERESTED, AND SUDDENLY THEY TAKE OFF! LOOK AT LAST DECEMBER s ICL. WAS THAT ANY EASIER?? IT SOLD OFF TO DAY 32. WAS IT ANY LESS REWARDING?
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GOLD DECEMBER 2017– It was absolutely FINE until day 27. READ THE CHART PLEASE
While GOLD was selling off yesterday, Miners that usually get crushed were resisting the selling again. This hardly looks like an ICL type sell off in Miners.
GDX – As GOLD dropped further, GDX reversed higher and divergence is appearing in the MACD HISTOGRAM, ACCUM / DISTRIBUTION, and RSI
JUST TO BE REALISTIC I ASK, ‘CAN GDX DROP & THEN RALLY LIKE THIS?’ Yes, and that would be similar to last December, but so far many Miners are NOT selling into Golds sell off. Some like GORO, KL, etc are hitting new highs. MY GUESS? It seems like MINERS are leaving people behind as traders only focus only on what GOLD is doing daily. Gold drops and traders may say, “Miners aren’t safe with GOLD dropping everyday.” Then you look at KL, GORO, etc and realize the illusion.
I wanted to point out the ICL of July & December 2017, because it is important to know how ICLs form. I am going to be heading to North Carolina this week and will be limited in my ability to write long explanatory reports for Friday or the Weekend. I also will not be in the comments section as much ‘real time’. I will have to have a shorter report Friday, and the WEEKEND REPORT will also be more or less ‘to the point’. That means that I still will cover everything, but I need to focus more details on what is most important at that time (likely Precious Metals). That said…
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I know that it can be frustrating to see GOLD drop & make another low when we are waiting for THE LOWS. Just when it appears that each new low might be THE LOW, we drop again? Frustrating? Maybe, but each day forward is one day closer to that low, and as long as time allows for it, we have to expect it. THIS IS WHY it is safer to wait for a proper swing low, rather than just jumping in.
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The good news: There is a ‘time limit’ to the selling. This selling CANNOT and WILL NOT continue indefinitely. Almost all ICLs that I have seen sell down this way, as long as there is ‘time’. I tried to show you that in this report with the JULY & DEC 2017 ICLs. Sometimes we forget that they formed in a similar manner. Eventually, the selling does run out of time. It then becomes ‘Time’ for an ICL. ‘Time’ to bottom. And then, ‘Time’ to rally. We are closer to that TIME every day.
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ENJOY YOUR WEDNESDAY TRADING, AS WE CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR OUR LOWS IN PRECIOUS METALS!
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~ALEX
AGAIN, as Gold sold off, various Miners showed normal activity. GORO, NEM, SAND, EXK, KL, NG, and others ended up Green with Gold selling off.
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NG dropped to the 200sma Monday, but bounced as Gold sold off Tuesday.
SAND – I captured SAND at 11 a.m. to show a possible shake out if it closed this way. It did close at $4.41. A break out higher from this triangle (and above those moving averages) would likely signal that a nice recovery is taking place after the ICL is in place.
GOLD AS OF MIDNIGHT EASTERN TIME – As mentioned, we got a new low overnight, but this steep selling keeps buyers afraid to enter. Look at the rally that follows, THAT IS OUR GOAL.
