MAY 19 WEEKEND REPORT – REST UP

Rest up this weekend, and we’ll review the markets and the action that we can expect as things move forward.  I’m really loving the way the Precious Metals markets are setting up for example, so far very much as expected.  Lets just get right into it and take a look at our markets…

 

 

SPX – After breaking out, we see a bull flag forming on the 10sma ( 9 sma used here). A low risk entry over the past 4 days, since your stop is under support. Always have a stop in place or in mind…

 

The set up is basically the same for the NASDAQ & SOX ( TQQQ oe SOXL) . They may have different paths out of the lows, but they all seem to be forming possible bull flag pauses on the 10sma, so with that in mind, you can look for any stocks that you wanted to buy or add on the dips and use the 10sma as a place to add.   AND ALWAYS USE STOPS.

 

MU – For example, MU.  Again, this is where you could look for any stocks that you wanted to buy or add on the dips and use the 10sma as a place to add. This COULD drop to a 50% drop, but it is at the 50 & 9sma- a good place to add if MU returns to former highs.

WTIC DAILY – Day 30 of this daily cycle and a wedge – I expect a pull back soon, as mentioned in recent reports.  $72 & $74 were targeted areas. We hit $72 this week.  Please read the chart.

 

WTIC WEEKLY- same as above.  A dip will be a buying opportunity, lets briefly discuss that idea…

OAS – I recommended OAS at $ 8 & 9.   I did not take the trade  🙁  – It was choppy and I  didn’t know just exactly how well this would run, but I mentioned forming a cup & reaching $11 as former highs.  Next chart…

OAS WEEKLY – My goodness, straight up non-stop and right past that $11 former high.   So if Oil pulls back and OAS does too, it could back test the 10sma and THAT would be a buy as it now look to be is on its way to 2016 highs! BY THE WAY,  THIS IS WHAT I AM THINKING WE MAY SEE IN MINERS AFTER AN ICL. I WILL DISCUSS THAT LATER.

 

WPX – Last week I saw what looked to be a possible topping candle on this daily chart, and said that we could buy a tag of the 50sma if we got a dip.

WPX – 1 week later, another topping candle. So again, put WPX on a watch list,  THIS IS A LONGER TERM BULLISH CHART.  A GIANT CUP & HANDLE break out so a pull back could be a back test.  (On my Watch list for a pull back).   THAT STRAIGHT UP RUN is what I’m hoping for in Miners after an ICL too.

 

The USD back In APRIL, I pointed out that the USD breaking from this base was really rather Bullish.  Read this chart.  To be honest, back in March, I was hoping for a break DOWN & an ICL in Gold in May, but THIS BREAK UPWARD WAS NOW TO BE VIEWED AS BULLISH, so I pointed out $92 & $94/95 as possible targets. Former highs as drawn here.

USD  – I posted this the other day,  the USD can move higher. $94/ 95  is getting closer.  This actually has $94 to $96 as resistance,  time will tell.  AT THAT POINT, I would expect the USD to start selling down and an ICL in Gold could form.

 

PRECIOUS METALS- This needs to become a focal point again.

 

Review: I posted this chart in April.  The month of MAY at the FOMC,  was possibly ‘time’ for an ICL in Gold, since it had been 5 months from the DEC ICL.  We have seen ICLS 5, 6, and even 7 months apart, so  MAY, JUNE , or JULY were targets.  We remain on alert. This chart was pointing to May or June  ( 5 or 6 months).

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  The end of April is when the USD broke out and GOLD lingered, eventually breaking down. Now we are deeper in time and should stay alert to conditions within this sector. This weekend report has 2 possible scenarios, so to minimize confusion, I will post them as what  I feel is ‘MOST LIKELY’, and ‘LESS LIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE’.

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GOLD – Last week in the daily report I pointed out after Golds $20 drop that it could now PAUSE, draw in some bulls, and then drop again.  See December 2017.  I used this chart.

GOLD –  I would say that so far we have that pause.  I think we need more time, and this is MOST LIKELY in my mind. A bear flag pause and another drop to come.  I would see this as day 13 of a new daily cycle, we closed over the 10sma for 3 days.

 

GOLD – This is less likely in my mind, but I discussed it last week too.  We did NOT break the downtrend, so was that an actual swing low on day 29 or are we now on day 42?  IF GOLD RALLIES BACK SHARPLY, this could be the count, but it really doesn’t seem to match Miners.

 

GOLD WEEKLY- I will point this out, at prior weekly sell offs into an ICL , the 1 week drop had a slight undercut the next week, and that was it.  Please see the chart.  The last 2 ICLs broke the 50 weekly MA 1 week & undercut that week the next week & then recovered.   IF I SEE THAT NEXT WEEK, it could be a buy. A Bullish reversal was next at the last 2 ICLs.  Golds weekly is also finally oversold.

 

GOLD WEEKLY – I pointed out a possible 2 leg sell off  in a prior report, and I mentioned possibly around the $1250 area as a target.  See this chart for an update.  Basically, We seem close to a LOW both Price wise & time wise.

 

GOLD – The last ICLs were also ‘Stop Runs’, breaking below a support area as a shake out. We are there now. Look for a reversal.

 

SILVER #1 – Near the lows, we could see a shake out ICL like we have in the past. This would match GOLDS most likely scenario – a dip lower out of a bear flag for gold, and a shake out for Silver.

 

SILVER #2  – So we could see this, and a shake out should be a buy .

SILVER #3–  Less likely is that Silver just holds the lows and then takes off.  If that happened, it would be a ‘Buy the break out’ situation.  I (or We) have actually been holding Silver stocks for over a month, since Silver stocks have held up well.  That chart should say

 

GDX : GOLD  – Miners started to lead gold, and we have seen GORO, KL, AKG, etc moving higher nicely, even when Gold dropped last week. GDX  could pull back with Gold into an ICL, so we would expect the dip in this chart last week.

GDX DAILY – Some Miners are resisting selling, as mentioned in prior reports.  Again, we’ve discussed KL, GORO at highs, and others like NG still heading higher.   GDX Could sell down to the lower end of this trading range though, but draw down should be fairly minimal if it does.

 

GOLD WEEKLY – We had a down week last week and 1 more large drop could tag the lower trend line.

 

JNUG #1  – For the  JNUG crowd- some were asking last week “Why not just buy & hold, in case it takes off? It should be over $20 this summer, right?”  I think that JNUG should be, and I totally understand that thinking,  but the draw down in JNUG can really hurt and can start to cause doubts. I can never recommend buying JNUG with an ICL possibly ahead. Read the chart…

 

JNUG  – For example: If you bought JNUG last week at $15.50 or $16, you’d already be below $14 at one point Friday. Now picture a solid sell off next week alone, and JNUG hits $12 or $11.  What if you put $10,000 on it at $16, and it sold off to $10 or even $8?  CUT – IN – HALF.  Yes, it may go to $20 by the summer, but buying last week would have already hurt a bit.   I recommend patience on leverage.

 

 That is your weekend report.

1. The General markets broke a down trend and paused, they look set to continue higher for now.

2. Energy could pull back , giving us some lower entries on energy stocks, and that can be a good set up.

3. The USD is in a rally from a base, but does have resistance overhead that can stall it and help the precious metals sector.

4.  Some of us have been trading many sectors, others are actually invested in a few Miners and in cash just waiting to go all in.  I am personally trading various sectors, but I am also very ready to flip into Miners in a big way when the time is right. This report should show just how close we are to an important change in that sector.

 

  This report shows you that Day after Day, Week after Week, we are getting very close to an important meaningful low in Precious Metals.  I think that some of these Miners will make explosive gains, especially when GDX & SILVER finally break free from that massive consolidation.  Large bases like that lead to large gains  when they break out to the upside. I will discuss this a bit further at the end of this report.

 

  And of course, I will continue to cover these areas day by day in the daily reports.  For now, enjoy your weekend and Rest Up! We want to be ready for whatever next week will bring our way.  🙂

 

~ALEX

 

Let me also repeat this, some of those OIL / ENERGY stocks lingered at their lows, like OAS & WRP –  they looked choppy and weak, but then suddenly broke out & ripped higher just like 2016.  That is how I feel MINERS may spring out of this MAJOR Consolidation that we have endured ( yeah, that’s right, we’ve ‘endured’ that sideways chop).

 

The BPGDM from last weeks weekend report verifies that several Miners are leading the way.

 

GORO – As mentioned in past daily reports, GORO, KL, NG,  AKG, and a few others already resist Golds selling, so we are seeing bullish action as Gold sells down. GORO looked choppy in December through March, then off it went.

GORO WEEKLY – BULLISH

THIS CHART FROM MAY 5TH SHOWS HOW BORING & CHOPPY GDX HAS SEEMED.  A BREAK OUT FROM HERE WILL PUT $$$ IN YOUR ACCOUNT QUICKLY.

 

DO YOU SEE ANY INDIVIDUAL MINERS ACTING LIKE THIS? –  We have seen some in the comments section become frustrated with certain Miners as they Chop & Bounce at the lows. That is understandable.  Maybe you even remember the famous quote from our comments/char section   ” Mux Sucks man!!”   THAT is how people feel at lows, and the danger is giving up even though the overall set up is Bullish, because…

That chart above was really OAS right before lift off.   Several Miners look the same and can make incredible gains when the ‘time’ is right.   With an ICL approaching and the overall set up Bullish, now is the time to stay alert.

 

MUX –  Who knows, someday I may show this chart and the readers will say, “Man, I wish I bought MUX when it was $2 bucks!”

MUX BIG PIC POSSIBILITIES