Thursday May 17

 

NASDAQ – I mentioned months ago that it looked like we could be starting a consolidation period  ( or a topping process) in the General Markets.   You can see that we are doing just that.  I also mentioned that it is possible that individual stocks may do well, so we will briefly discuss some individual stocks later in the report.  Also if this, over time,  breaks out to new highs, it would be very bullish.

 

 

 

LUNA– I owned this in early 2018, but only as a short short term trade. It dropped below the 50sma and seems to have been a shake out, since it recovered. Earnings already came out, so this could be bought right here, and a stop under the 50sma  makes it low risk.

 

QD – I would put this on my watch list.   It was quite bullish in Jan – March, but then it dropped from $17.50 to $9.50 in 2 months.  Now it has a round  bottom base and regained the 50sma.  It looked like a recovery story,  BUT—  Earnings come out next Monday. If they improve, I think that this will run back to highs.  Big gains.

 

SQ–  This break higher was a buy on MAY 7th

SQ–   Continue to hold if you bought it, it is forming that cup as expected.  NOTE:  I dont like the volume dropping as it gets to highs though. If that continues for the rest of the week, I PERSONALLY ALWAYS SELL IT.

MU In yesterdays report

 

MU –  This also continues higher to the former highs. If the gap fills and 50sma gets re-tested, you could buy it there and try to ride it from $52 to $62.

SPX – I still expect a dcl on the 50sma soon.

 

WTIC–  Day 28, I still expect a pull back here as this wedge hits the Apex.  ( $52 – $54).

USD – From yesterday, the USD ran a bit higher on Wednesday.

 

GOLD – Gold put in a doji. This can lower the parameters for a swing low, but I still think that it is too early.  Instead, yesterday I called for this pause when I mentioned…

GOLD  – I posted the ICL in Dec as a drop, pause, drop, pause, drop etc.  We now have a drop & a pause, so we’ll see what happens.

GOLD  – I also mentioned that a back test of the 200sma can buy time, so that the ICL doesn’t break  DEC lows.

 

FINALLY,  GOLD as an outside possibility to keep in mind : I posted this yesterday, that GOLD never broke the down trend line to confirm a dcl.  So IF this count was true, we would have a day 40 low now.   Since Miners did not sell off with Gold, it is an odd set up.  IF GOLD SNAPS BACK, that may be a shake out.

 

AND MANY MINERS REMAIN HEALTHY

 

GORO  – While GOLD sells off,  LOOK AT GORO. NEW HIGHS.  Some Miners are very much out performing now, and this should help us to see that the next ICL for gold should be an EXCELLENT BUY for Miners.

 

AG WEEKLY –  Look at the RSI.  We are seeing bullish change in these Miners.

MAG – MAG looks ready to break out too. This is Silver, but basically shows that some of the  Miners have ignored GOLDS break down below the 200sma.

And that is encouraging.  Below I will discuss some trade set ups as we continue to watch and wait for what could be the last great buying opportunity in Miners.  Enjoy your Thursday trading!

 

~ALEX

 

 

TGB – Talk about  FRUSTRATING!   I have been pointing out TGB for a couple of days. I decided to buy it ahead of a break out above the 50sma yesterday.  I put in a limit order at $1.17 and had to leave for the day.  When I came home, TGB had surged higher in the final hour, and it only filled a small  partial of my order  🙁    I own 1000 shares of TGB, but want more.  This looks ready to break out higher, doesn’t it?

 

CLF APRIL 18 –  This was a BUY and I posted it in the April 19 report. The set up looked proper, and this should run to prior highs of $9 minimum.

 

CLF MAY 10 –  Last week  I posted that CLF is getting follow through and other ‘Metals’ stocks are starting to look good too, like X, AKS, etc.

 

CLF– CLF continued higher to the former highs of $9.  It could form a handle when it gets there, or it may just break out.

 

 

AKS – Breaking out, this is a buy.

 

HBM – HBM has been in recent reports too.  It has moved above the 50sma, and needs to break above the 200sma, and then technical traders will really step in if conditions are right.

 

X- US STEEL –  X tagged the 200sma, and that held as support as a first buying opportunity with a close stop.  It is now breaking above the 50sma after a 4 day pause underneath that 50sma. Another buy with a low risk stop.

 

AKS – AKS popped out of a consolidation and broke above the 50sma.  When the 50sma is slanted down, I find that price often runs and drops back to ‘test’ it, but this may just run to the 200sma and crawl, until the 50sma curls upward. It is still a buy.

 

I LIKE CSTM FOR THE LONG TERM-

 

CSTM #1 –  Last DECEMBER, I pointed out that I really like the Big Picture Chart of CSTM as it ran from $5 to $12.50 & pulled back to $10. It was in a consolidation phase, but looked ready to go again. It then ran to $14 and is now at $11 ish again.  I believe that it is a good long term buy & hold, let’s zoom in.

CSTM #2 –  So it ran to $14 in February, and dipped to support at the 200sma.   It is at the 200sma now.  Shall we zoom out again to see the potential the BIG PICTURE?   Chris?  My long term patient buy & hold guy.  🙂

CSTM WKLY – This looks to be breaking out from a down trend line in that almost 1 year consolidation,  and this has great potential.

LUNA – Just a reminder,  LUNA looks to be recovering as a low risk buy here.  MAY 2 was earnings release, and that gave it no reaction.  I don’t know why it dropped on May 11, but it has recovered.

QD – ALSO QD for the watch list.  EARNINGS ARE NEXT MONDAY.

 

IPI & ENPH  are playing out very well

161 replies
  1. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Great report, clear and concise. I see Bob Moriarty says the DSI is finally at 10 on both gold and silver as of a couple days ago. It can go lower, but he has been waiting patiently to buy until it got here.
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty051718.html

    To me, it feels like we have lower to go first, but it would be nice if I was able to avoid stopping out considering Moriarty has been pretty accurate on the major turning points the last two years. I would hate to have to exit just before they turn up.

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        I think so as well, though it might be more of a general area as in the next few weeks or month, rather than somebody rushing out and having to buy today. When these guys make big calls, I wonder how they decide what specific day to start buying, or do they just start small now and keep adding over 6-8 weeks?

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Just an FYI to help the readers here–

        That DSI can drop under 5 at an ICL too. I use sentiment as an indicator, like a contrary indicator, but not an exact timing tool. Same as BPGSM, etc.

        So if anyone was to think that sentiment is a good timing tool, and bought JNUG when DSI went under 10- they could watch JNUG drop $3 or more from there if Miners got caught up in the ICL sell off

        Hyst a heads up for those not understanding sentiment. .

        • Hawaiifive0
          Hawaiifive0 says:

          Oh yes, I know. But it’s one more indicator that says we’re getting close. I’m thinking the stochastic says we have a ways to go also.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yes, I posted under your name just so it would be on this thread, but not posted specifically to you.

            Some readers might read that someone said DSI under 10 means we are at a low- and start buying right before a deeper sell off. I’m just posting a cautionary note. = )

            It can go lower at an ICL.

          • Ralph Wiederzane
            Ralph Wiederzane says:

            Yes, more of a general area than a specific trigger. We are getting close, but probably not there just yet.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Even though I often look at the FOMC Mtg as a trigger, it may be sooner than that this time.

            I just like the way Miners are holding up, GORO, AKG, & KL at highs, etc

            Accumulation of Miners does seem to be overcoming the Sharp drop in Gold recently.

  2. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Does anyone remember the oil stock that someone posted, I can’t remember who, that pays a great dividend?

      • Hawaiifive0
        Hawaiifive0 says:

        I think it was in the general market. I remember something like the symbol MLVP, but that doesn’t come up. This person thought it was a great oil stock with a great dividend and asks what you thought. I went back a few days but haven’t been able to find it yet.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, it was you I was thinking of. =)

      Not that this is your kind of stock, and it certainly has been a bit of a rough ride during consolidation, but I do like that chart Long Term, and it looks ready to break the down trend.

      • Chris
        Chris says:

        I had a feeling it might be!! Lol The description fits, especially the patience bit!! Would probably take most stocks if they eventually end up higher although I do prefer less of the roller coaster ride along the way. But then don’t we all!!? 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      In technical analysis it is a ‘buy’. I find that they can break & run, but also often they break, move higher and come back & do a back test, so it kind of depends on the sector & is that sector Bullish? , is it overbought by a lot? Should I start a position and add on a back test or just go in strong & hope for no pull back , etc

      It is Bullish, but you may have to endure some consolidation.

      ENPH is kind of at that point now too. It broke to new highs, but it may now stall

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Thanks for the input. I think of it as a BUY, but I need to catch these earlier. Perhaps the MACD cross would be a better spot.

        • Steve Tytler
          Steve Tytler says:

          Bill, if you want a simple “buy” signal take a look at one of my favorites: the 9 EMA / 10 SMA cross on a daily chart. Notice that signaled a “buy” on CREE on May 3rd. If you didn’t want to buy on the first day of the bullish cross you could have waited for confirmation the next day and bought on May 4. The key factors to watch are:

          1) Did the 9 EMA cross above the 10 SMA.
          2) is the 9 EMA angled up (rather than going sideways)
          3) The 5 day EMA is an “early warning signal” I watch, it should be angled up. Notice that the 5 day EMA turned up on May 1 and confirmed on May 2. That’s an even earlier “buy” signal but a “safer” bet is to wait for the 9 EMA / 10 SMA cross.

          Once you see that “buy” signal it remains in effect as long as the 9 EMA and 10 SMA are angled UP on the daily chart, which they are. So CREE is still a “buy” but it’s a lot safer to buy closer to the turn.

          Hope that helps. Everyone has their own charts and trading systems, that’s just one of mine. If I traded individual stocks that would have been a good one to buy at the beginning of this month. But I’m waiting for the major index ETF’s to give me a deep dip buying opp.

          Good trading to all!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Above the 50sma too.

      POTN also rode along the 200sma, and tagged the 50sma this morning.
      It does seem like this whole sector is slowly perking up

      • Edward Bernhart
        Edward Bernhart says:

        Yes. Acutely aware of REFG’s progress anyway (above the 20 and 50). I have been holding since Dec 29th. They are somewhat unique offering banking accounts in the US.

  3. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Our OIL plays are so strong… DNR, LGCY, CRC, OAS, RIG, SN etc….m man even CHK from the 3.00 lows…

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      So true!
      I posted about OAS, WTI, WPX set ups and missed all 3 , buying AREX and SWN, which were going no where for a while.

      A traded a few on the side, but got out WAY Too early. Made pennies instead of dollars

      and LGCY! Waited for a pullback that never came.

      Strong run in those for sure!

  4. Cason
    Cason says:

    CF, got into ERX but late compared to oil cycles. Since you expect oil AND market to potentially drop here would you just sell now and take profit on today’s pop? I’ll at least tighten stop either way. Thanks!

  5. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    sadly looks like GDX might fall 21.10’s.. started small position DUST this morning.. stop under yesterday low

  6. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    BZUN in 2 hour lower vol bull coil .. nice run on strong ER… IF pops coil thru 53.90 ATH with vol targets 55/56

  7. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    CARV.. the low float du jour today… hard to believe a bank stock.. didn’t trade it .. halted now

  8. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    IMLFF sitting at the 10 day, trying to push through…MPXEF seems like it’s trying to move higher….

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Yes, I remember this one….for some reason it’s not in my watch list anymore, will have to go check it out….

  9. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    Inspector General Finds FBI, DOJ Broke Law In Clinton Email Probe, Refers To Criminal Prosecutor

  10. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    CARV just broke out of wedge 9.60’s with vol… tagged 11.94.. from 3 to 12 today

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I did end up filling my order for TGB, but I am early. A more bullish buy is if & when it breaks above the 50sma, but at this point, earnings have been released, commodities looked good, and WRN broke out big today, so I will just ‘jump the gun;’ a bit and see what happens.

    This COULD still just base out for a bit longer.

  12. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex…do you think CRON could possibly continue down to the 200? I know, it’s a crystal ball question…:)

  13. Bill
    Bill says:

    If you can time your entries an exits on EDXC, you can make some good $$$ fast. 12% swings all the time.

  14. deshy
    deshy says:

    watched a great video on $CRSP last night…then forgot to pull the trigger this am…#alwayslate

  15. deshy
    deshy says:

    CF, thoughts on MJ stocks? Some a took a bit of a hit today but on relatively low vol. compared with last few days. Maybe just a backtest? e.g. $APHQF

  16. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Alex,Thanks for commenting yesterday on VALE. I went ahead and sold some shares that I had bought near $8, but held onto the ones I bought way back around $4. Like that company.

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