May 15th – Follow Through

 

 

SPX WKLY from the weekend report shows a break out, and that is bullish

 

SPX – When considering the daily cycle count, we either had a short day 23 dcl, or we are on day 30 as a peak so far.  I’m thinking that we could get a pull back that may be a back test & a dcl if we get one.

 

ANOTHER REASON WHY I THINK WE MAY SEE A PULL BACK AT THIS POINT

 

TRAN  – I wanted to point out that the WEEKLY TRANSPORTS  have been going sideways and are at the top of their trading range, so we may be due for a pull back here too. I  would watch for a break out ( a buy) or a dip back toward support. A break out with this consolidation from February would be  bullish.

IWM WEEKLY – The IWM or RUT also looks like a bullish pattern , but it may not be ready to break out.  The MACD shows divergence, and the apex is 2 months forward in time.  So if the TRAN & IWM are ready to pull back for a bit , maybe the SPX is too. Maybe it really is on day 30 and not on day 7.  Either way, the bigger picture still looks bullish at this point.

 

USD  – A swing high formed and the USD broke the 10sma, but tried to recapture it into the close.  I’d like to see more weakness in the USD.  I also would expect a deeper drop into a dcl.

WTIC –  From the weekend report , even though we had another swing high form (unconfirmed),  I am still looking at $72 – $74 as a short term possibility.

WTIC  – Oil reversed higher Monday.  Cycle count and a rising wedge do seem to limit Oils upside possibly to topping this week.

 

 

GOLD – Gold dropped and landed on the 10sma, and then bounced from there.  At this point, it looks like day 9 without any real change.  WE WANT TO SEE A HIGHER HIGH IN THIS DAILY CYCLE OR IT WILL BECOME A  L.T. DAILY CYCLE & WILL ROLL OVER. A CLOSE BELOW THE 10sma AT THIS POINT WOULD CONCERN ME.

GDXJ   – As GDXJ dropped, I captured this at 2:20 P.M. Eastern time. I wanted it to hold or bounce in this trend line & 10sma, and it did.   You can see that GDX  did the same  ( next chart).

 

 

GDX  AT THE CLOSE  –  GDX tagged the 10sma, bounced, and held up.  So Far , So good.  We want to see higher price here though, so we do not get a L.T. daily cycle rolling over. This is Day 9 with a day 8 peak.  If you bought at the 50sma, you can raise stops to lock in gains.

GDX- From the weekend report , I don’t want to lose that lower trend line, and Monday we didn’t.

 

 

So at this point, nothing really changed since the weekend report. I DID MENTION in the comments real time that I sold the JNUG that I Bought at $14.80 as a trade, but I  still own my first entry from the FOMC Day.  I will re-buy if it takes off higher, but as a trader, I took some profit and will raise stops on the rest.    I also sold AXU simply because I have better places to use that money.  AXU closed below the 50 & 200sma, and IPI popped and looks set to run, so I simply make that decision based on what I see real time.   A chart of IPI is below.   I have been in AXU for a month and sold for about a 10 cent loss.    I can always get back in, but I like a few other trade set ups at this point.

It will take some time to see how these sectors continue to play out.   Keep your stops in place, in case the Mines peak left translated.  If that were the case, some individual Miners that have been strong may pull back to a nice buy point   ( Like GORO, IAG, AKG, KL, etc).

  Enjoy your Tuesday trading, and below I have several charts of interest.

 

~ALEX

 

 

I wrote about the Medical Marijuana Sector a while back, and this is just a reminder that some of these are basing out, setting up bullishly, and others have already begun to climb out of their lows or bases.  Let me review some charts.  

 

Side note: For those in Canada-  you may want to look up the  NAMES of some of these companies and you will see that some trade in Canada too, and are not OTCBB stocks there.

 

KSHB #1 – In march I pointed out this set up- Breaking the down trend is bullish, and many started to line up this way after consolidating some tremendous gains in 2017. Look at that run in 2017!

 

KSHB #2 – I then posted that we had an inverse H&S , and this break above the 50sma is bullish. I mentioned that I bought it breaking the 10sma earlier and expected former highs to be reached.

 

KSHB #3 – And it just continues to gradually move higher.  It looks like tiny moves day after day, but it could be a double if it gets to former highs.

 

OGRMF  MAY 1st-  I think that I bought this one as it bounced off of the 200sma & broke above the 10sma.  It was now pushing on the 50sma as a sideways flag formed.  It is a ‘safer’ buy waiting for the break out.

OGRMF MAY 8th  –  And it did break the 50sma, and that was a buy.  I Posted this in the comments midday on May 7th, and in the report last week.

 

OGRMF  – Another 9% Monday and breaking above March highs, this is now trying to become an uptrend  ( higher lows, higher highs).   AGAIN, THIS SECTOR LOOKS TO BE HEATING UP TO ME and I made very good gains at the end of 2017 in these stocks.

 

CBWTF #1 –  I liked this one as a long base, and expected this one to eventually break out higher, it could do very well. I mentioned that I bought this on that pop above the 10sma simply for the base.  A break & close above the 50sma should be a buy.

CBWTF #2  – It broke & closed above the 50sma last week and the base still looks great.

 

CBWTF #3 – This close up shows that it closed over the 50sma for the last 3 days and is also breaking above a triangle, so I added to my current position.  I have owned this for what looks like a long boring month, but I’m hoping that it will be much better in another month.

 

 

APHQF- This one broke out today too. Closing above the 50sma for 2 or 3 days will be encouraging.   Please read the chart.

 

 

CANN  – CANN made a very big move from $2 to $6.75 in April alone.  It is consolidating those gains now, but a break out above this down trend line could get interesting pretty quickly-  put this on a watch list. It also MIGHT drop & tag the 50sma.

 

CBDS – This is on my watch list, and even though I didn’t want to own too many of these, I’d be willing to sell KSHB and buy CBDS  if it breaks out.

 

TWMJF JUST LAST WEEK – I was asked if I liked this one, because one of our readers Ron B. bought it over a week ago.  I did like this set up and it looked ready to break out, so I posted this chart.

TWMJF – It popped nicely on Monday. The RSI surged above 50% and  I cant be certain whether or not the gap will fill, but I would buy that gap fill if I see it, with a stop under the lower green line.

So you can see that this sector is slowly making good gains.  Mine have become ‘Buy & Hold’ positions for now, to allow them time to run.  Some are running  strong ( See MEDFF, CVSI, etc) , others are ‘basing out’ or ‘breaking out” and moving higher.  It’s important for me to mention that Due Diligence is recommended.  Finding out when their Earnings release is due can prevent any sudden surprises, but some in this sector are reporting good gains, since  legalization has begun to kick in in the US and soon  Canada.

 

 

IPI –  I think that this higher than average volume break out is a buy right here.  It is low risk with a stop under support.

 

TGB – This is bullishly pushing on the 50sma.  It is on my watch list, and I would buy a break higher. This is also a falling wedge, but I didn’t draw it that way.

HBM  – Break out and it may gap fill and crawl along the 50sma, but the point is that some of the commodities are shaping up again too.

 

And SOME TECH STOCKS are moving higher  ( see TWLO, CREE,  MU, TWTR, MSFT, NVDA , SQ, etc), while others are looking rather ugly…  SO BE SELECTIVE & USE STOPS.  If we get a pull back in the SPX, NASDAQ, IWN, TRAN, etc, we may see buy set ups on the pull back.

 

SGH –    One of the good looking ones that we traded in March , it is chugging along. Hold if you bought it,  add on the dip or buy the dip if you see one. A dip to the 50sma is not unusual.

MU –  Also moving higher in May.  This could pull back and become a buy if it doesn’t violate all support levels. I’ll keep an eye on it.

CASA – THIS TURNED UGLY along with  AQ and a few others. Being selective & even cautious around ‘earnings’ season is recommenced.

 

RESTAURANT STOCKS  ARE SUDDENLY LOOKING …..    QUESTIONABLE.  I don’t know why, but look at yesterdays dips.

SEE   CAKE, WING, EAT, DIN, etc –  I view those as a high volume drop breaking the 10sma, and I often step aside quickly to just watch how it plays out, if an entire sector starts to dip like that.