Tuesday May 1st

/74 Comments/in /by

 I have been expecting this to be an active week, so as we approach FED Wednesday, lets review how Monday traded…

 

SPX – So far, the move out of the April lows has been weak and appears to be struggling at the 50sma.  With the daily cycle count ticking away, this needs to break above that 50sma soon, or it will get caught up in a sell off when the ‘time’ is up.

 

And don’t forget this…

 

 

I’m just re-posting the same old chart that I look at daily, to remind myself that SO FAR there has been a pattern of disappointment when the Fed Chairman speaks.  YES –  That can change, but right now I look at this chart everyday, and I am no longer in Tech stocks.   Maybe a FED Surprise will send the SPX, DJIA, and NASDAQ surging above the 50sma, but for now I continue to recommend caution.  ‘Time’ for a rally is slowly running out.

Some stocks that we’ve discussed are fine, but some of those beautiful Tech stocks are stagnant or worse, selling down below support now.   CASA, AG, SQ, CREE, CY, etc have not been continuing their bullish run.  Let’s take a quick look.

SQ – trapped under the 50sma

I wrote a special warning or cautionary note in one of my reports, pointing out that SOX, SOXL, CY, KLAC, etc etc all started looking weak.

 

CREE – Earnings came out and CREE Gapped open highr in a big way 4 days ago, drawing in bulls, and then sold off below the 50sma. Bull Trap.

 

CY – Another Semiconductor selling off.  These are getting oversold, but a bounce & a back test of the 200sma may be all they will get if they keep selling down lower first.

 

I REMAIN  CAUTIOUS ON THE GENERAL MARKETS

 

OIL STILL LOOKS TO BE HEADING TO THE $70 AREA, AND IT IS SHOWING UP AT THE GAS STATIONS IN MY AREA IN A BIG WAY.

 

 

GOLD – We had a reversal near the lower support, but this is a FED WEEK. It can get quite volatile during that time. A break above the 10sma, which is currently at the 50sma, would be a sign that the dcl is likely in place. I do have to still expect more of a sell off though. I have pointed out a drop below the 200sma as possible……

GOLD – This was in the weekend report, and a stop run at the 200sma is just the kind of market action that we usually see.  If we get this, it M-I-G-H-T be an  ICL, but if all we get is a tag of the 200sma, it is probably just a dcl.  I’d like to see a sharper drop into the FOMC personally.

 

GDX – Pretty mild selling so far.   I know people want to buy this, because it is holding up, but I  expect this red trend line to be broken before we see a dcl. Selling could accelerate.

 

CDE –  CDE also had a large 1 day run up last week and has sold off ever since.  I expected the 50 & 200sma to hold as a back test of the blue trend line, I was very surprised that it gave way.  I STILL own this. Under any other circumstance, that 50 & 200sma would have been my stop, but I held in case Friday was a shake out.  Monday saw more downside.   Lets zoom out..

 

CDE–  Obviously I am expecting CDE to stabilize and recover as Gold & Silver find a DCL, hopefully near the FOMC Mtg. “Zoom out”? Is that an oxymoron?

 

GORO – Other MINERS are very strong, even though GOLD & SILVER are dropping.  Look at GORO, it is still trading right up there at the highs.

 

TRX– I sold my TRX to lock in what I thought were excellent gains, and a bull flag formed. Now I missed a  22% surge Monday.  So some Miners are definitely out performing and even ignoring Golds dip down.

 

So I want to make mention of something that may be a misunderstanding.  I am not necessarily expecting a DCL or ICL  ON FED WEDNESDAY.   Yes, It can happen that way, and we have seen that in the past, but THE LOW can come on the day before, or even  1, 2, 3 days after a Fed Mtg too.  We can get a sharp slam down day after day after day , and then a reversal next week.  For example…

 

GDX FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT–  We can sell off day after day after day, or we can rally, we are at the mid-point.

I mention this because I did get an email saying , “When you buy on the FOMC WEDNESDAY, what are you buying? Miners or JNUG?”  To be clear, I never said that I am automatically buying the Fed mtg, and I didn’t recommend that here either.  I usually recommend a safe entry, which is waiting for a deeper cycle count, and then a confirmed DCL.  So if we sell to new lows on Wednesday,  and swing cannot take place on that same day.  Obviously, anyone here can buy whenever they want, my analysis is here to assist you with your own trading style, but a SAFER buy with less paper-cuts comes from waiting for a swing low.

 

Tuesday is the day before the FED decision is announced, let’s see what the markets throw our way today.  Enjoy your Tuesday Trading.

~ALEX

 

 

CBWTF  –  I have been pointing out that I think the Medical Marijunana stocks have been slowly ‘setting up’ to bullish. This is pushing on the 50sma, a break out could be all it needs to start rising higher.  I bought early as it crossed the 10sma, but other may want to Buy the close above the 50sma.

 

CNAB – This one rides above the 50sma area.

 

 

OGRMF – This is also apparently crawling under the 50, and they usually break out higher. It did a perfect tag off of the 200sma, so these are acting correctly  ( fairly  predictably).

MEDFF  – This also seems to be starting to Move higher after running above the 50sma.

 

The General Markets are choppy and have made Tech stocks that we were trading choppy, but some of those FOOD stocks that I mentioned have been less affected. You can check that list daily too, if you wrote those names down.  The sector is doing well.

CAKE  –  Cake broke out and pulled back as a back test, but now looks like a bull horn or megaphone pattern. It may become a buy again on the blue line.

CHUY  –  I pointed this out last week as a ‘W’-Pattern.

CHUY  – It broke out with the markets selling off yesterday. This can be bought or wait & watch it daily – for a back test in the future.

 

 

I am in BLOCKCHAIN STOCKS, because I mentioned that BITCOIN looked ready to put in some upside.  This was how BITCOIN ran as of last week…

JUST A THOUGHT- NOT A PROBLEM AT THIS POINT – BITCOIN- It is either putting in a bull flag now, or it MIGHT dip down to $7000 again, to continue to form this base.  If so, I am keeping an eye on my block chain trades.  So far, they look fine  ( SSC, MARA, MGTI, DPW, BTCS, BTSC, etc etc.) . I just wanted to mention that there could be a relationship between Bitcoins progress and theirs.   Just a helpful reminder, but SSC. ,MGTI, MARA, etc are holding above the 50sma. That will be my mental stop now.

 

MGTI FOR EXAMPLE

74 replies
  1. Bill
    Bill says:

    CBWTF, VLO and EDXC are the only stocks I have left. Stopped out or sold off everything else. Every sector is just churning sideways.

  2. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    NAK just took a big hit this morning on this news.
    “VANCOUVER , May 1, 2018 /CNW/ – Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE American: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) announced today that it has agreed to extend the deadline date of the framework agreement with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (“First Quantum”) (FM.TO) to May 31 , 2018″. To hold or not to hold.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          We’ll see how it trades today. As far as the news is concerned, they didn’t extend it out to Nov or Dec, they extended it to May 31. Today is May 1.

          14,000 shares traded, so it kind of seems too early to see how the majority feel about it

  3. Peter
    Peter says:

    Hi Alex, thanks for today’s report. So the VIX is in a triangle pattern, but so are the general markets. Is it just a gamble at this point which one is going resolve bullish and which one is going to resolve bearish?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Peter,

      I’m sorry , but I dont think that I really understand the question of a gamble.

      Tomorrow is a FOMC MEETING, Cycle count is moving forward, Markets have acted rather weak so far, things are rather up in the air. I’m not trading either here

  4. James S. Crawford
    James S. Crawford says:

    Great report again Alex. With the Fed @ 2:00 eastern tomorrow we need to be
    mindfull of another possible market mover this Friday prior to the bell as the employment numbers will be released. Another big miss could really raise hell. They are expecting 190,000. Also worth watching will be the revision number for last months disappointing 103,000 jobs. Iv’e bought a few silver miners down here and hope to go at it like I was killing snakes on a swing although I kind of expect a DCL instead of the ICL based on the USD chart. Stay tuned and buckel up!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, and it is a big earnings week too, AUY, RGLD, KL report this week, but for now I am focused on WED FOMC, taking it 1 thing at a time.

      If we get a confirmed swing low this late in the count, it may be low risk enough , the downside should at least be limited.

      Killing snakes on a swing, never heard that one 🙂

      • Crawdaddy
        Crawdaddy says:

        Had to throw somthing at’cha so you knew it was Crawdaddy. Having issues with Disqus. Will figure it out later damn eyes giving up again. A little rest will fix em up

  5. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    GLD getting to its 200 MA this morning. http://schrts.co/ZDJ18c

    Now if my miners can get weaker I am looking to add. At the moment, they are hanging in better than the metal again, so will have to wait and see. It´s also interesting to see silver down less than gold, not typical.

      • fubsy_cooter
        fubsy_cooter says:

        I’m liking the depth of the slow stochastic on SLV. Typically a good place to add and can just hold for it to reach overbought again, then reassess based on point in the int and/or daily cycle.
        Bought SLV in my IRA and my kid’s UTMAs.
        Waiting for a reversal in GDXJ to build in ny trading acct, but getting tempted!

  6. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Stopped out of MGTI for a win,but should have sold earlier at 2.13 versus 1.62.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Was gone , came back with 5 min left and sold for 1.64. Profit, but should have sold all at 2.15. Greed and/or high hopes optimism get me every time.

  12. RonB
    RonB says:

    amazing how much more volume there is on the Canadian exchange for some of these MJ stocks. For instance right now Canopy Growth TWMJF (US) has traded 188k shares, whereas WEED.TO was traded 1.2M. I don’t see how you can get a feel for these unless you are watching both exchanges.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Many Miners trade on both Canadian and US Markets, and other stocks also trade in foreign markets- it doesn’t alter the charts at all, from my experience.

      I trade based on the chart for the index that I am using

  15. marinho
    marinho says:

    Alex,
    do you mind to put up a daily silver chart, I think it has gone down 5 days in a row and would like to assess the situation in light of an upcoming dcl and/or ICL

  16. Cal S.
    Cal S. says:

    XAU was the lone miner ETF in dropping below 50day MA, but it’s clawed it’s way back above it (so far)

    It’s hard to know if the miner ETFs’ outperforming the metals so well today is bullish action – OR – if it’s the big boys setting up for a slam down tomorrow

  18. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    I am getting more comfortable with my miner longs, now that I have seen how they hold up in the face of very weak gold recently, not just today. Lets see what they can do when gold finds it´s legs and finally makes a move higher.
    I also like that they are making them hard to buy, I keep waiting for a smash which doesn´t come. I was only able to add a little to my MUX today when it was red by a couple percent. Plus, I´m almost past the FOMC BS.

  19. RonB
    RonB says:

    Alex – I’m just trying to wrap my brain around what could happen tomorrow in the market. If the fed does not tighten, would you expect a reaction that would be strong for equities and bad for PM’s?

  20. LeChiffre
    LeChiffre says:

    excited to see what the FOMC brings.
    depending on reaction (I’ll wait a good 10min), I may grab some JNUG for a ride. Let’s meet up in chat/comment tomorrow.

  21. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I keep asking myself:

    Are these miners ( GDX / GDXJ) leading the way, with GOLD & SILVER down & GDX / GDXJ moving higher off of the 50sma

    or

    Are the just waving a Red Cape at the Bulls – drawing us in for the Fed Reaction?

    • fubsy_cooter
      fubsy_cooter says:

      Exactly…there have been several ICLs in the past where things held on held on held on then cascaded for a couple weeks straight down. And it’s not hard to imagine a fake break here to grab stops and reverse like a sling shot..
      But the miners have been supported for a while and the weekly chart is solid consolidation. Good thing we can’t see the future!

  23. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Loaded up a second tranche and now fill sizd on AKG with a 1.10 avg and half size in HL 3.81.

    Stayed away from tech despite seeing a bounce – ‘‘twas hard to do but cf hasn’t given a green light yet so….

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