March 14- Big Picture Review

As mentioned in many of the 2018 reports, and especially in the weekend report delivered 2 weeks ago, we are seeing many changes slowly taking place in the markets. Today we will do our very important Big Picture Review, and along the way , I will discuss what I am seeing.

 

 

SPX DAILY – So far we still have our low on day 34. The SPX is going on day 10, and we are awaiting an upside break out.

 

 

So the daily chart for SPX is bullish, but the weekly charts gives us clues about the longer term action that we should expect. Keep in mind that it is normal for Long Term ideas to morph or change along the way as time & price begin to reveal future strength or weakness.

 

SPX WEEKLY– I do see a indications of a weaker market, but if this breaks higher ( as expected) it is best to wait and see how things look then.  Currently I am expecting a break higher out of a day 34 daily cycle low, so  I am positioned on the long side.

 

DJIA – The moment of truth is the apex, and markets usually break before they reach the apex of a triangle. On this chart, I do also see signs of weakness at the double bottom lows. We will monitor it as time goes on. I do still expect a break out.

 

NASDAQ – We broke out of this channel, and then back inside. Though I expect a rally in the short term, I have mentioned that this is starting to resemble a topping process  ( OR JUST AN EXTENDED CONSOLIDATION SIDEWAYS).  Please read the chart and I will post a LINK at the end of this report for you to consider later.

 

WTIC  WEEKLY – Oil is breaking higher after breaking from this long multi-year base.  I do see strong divergence, so I am thinking that it will pull back after this 5th wave completes what is probably wave 1 of 3. Inflation?

 

USD  – The USD is weak, and the daily cycle already sems to have formed a swing high, closing below the 10sma.  The Big Picture break down that occurred in mid-2017 should eventually  lead it back to the lows.   Gold should rally.  (Inflationary?).

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD  #1 – Gold has been Bullishly climbing out of the lows of a Giant Base. ICL after ICL has now been a higher low. I believe that we are going to break out soon, and that 2018 will be an exceptional year to be invested in this sector.

 

GOLD #2  – Cycles have a deeper dip or an ICL ( intermediate Cycle Low) that come roughly at even intervals. The last one was in Dec, so the next one should come in roughly May or June. The big question becomes will GOLD dip into the FOMC meeting, like I originally was thinking? Maybe an ICL in Mays FOMC Mtg?   See the chart, Or…

 

GOLD #3  – Is gold about to break out and the ICL comes later as a back test, as shown here? I have to wonder, because many Miners have begun to Pop.  I still lean toward a pull back & ICL before a major break out & run higher, but things are changing to bullish rapidly.  Only time will tell.

 

COT SILVER -This COT remains very Bullish for Silver.

 

 

 

SILVER#1 – The weekly chart , if drawn this way,  would also have time for an  ICL in Gold in May or June.

SILVER #2–  Drawn this way, we are almost at the APEX and Silver would break out one way or the other very soon.  My indicators have become ‘pinched’ bullishly.  Look at the Volume on that small push higher-  That looks ready to break out.

As mentioned 2 weeks ago, Silver miners began to ‘set up’ properly, and now Silver Miners have begun to lead the way. I mentioned that I bought FSM, CDE, EXK ( EXK was just for a trade), and AG is looking good now too. We will look at a few at the end of the report.

 

GDX DAILY – I wanted to throw in the daily chart,, because it turned very bullish recently

1. I mentioned that possibly Miners put in an ICL in FEB ( Then it formed a triangle).

2.  A break from the triangle starts the daily cycle count, and we just saw a peak on day 17- This should be  Right Translated, and can continue higher.  I drew it this way.

3. Miners now look very bullish after an ICL in Feb to me.   I played JNUG & bought Miners coming out of the Triangle lows, but I sold JNUG in the next sideways move.  ( Look close, that sideways move from day 4 forward is a small bullish triangle too).

 

The email Question:  ” I didn’t buy Miners when you did. Did I miss the move in Miners?”

 

GDX #1 – The answer is , ” Not at all.”   This has a LOT further to run when the ‘time’ is right.  We are only 1/2 way into the consolidation zone.  As seen on this chart, last weeks move was really just a was a minor miner move. 🙂  From here, My thinking leans bullishly, let me show you why.

 

GDX #2 –  Can Miners continue higher, running back to the highs, and then dip before breaking out in a Big Way?  Absolutely, it could look like this.

 

GDX #3 – It also could be the start of a major move higher, so I think that it is a good idea to at least own a couple of Miners, just in case this scenario did play out.  I like Silver Miners, since Silver looks pretty explosive.

I  have mentioned in past reports that I actually bought some Silver Miners, because I like Silvers set up very much.  I bought TRX, FSM, AXU, CDE, for now.

 

MINERS – It even gets better

 

REVIEW: Among other stocks, last week I also stated that I’m watching NEM, as a Gold Stock leader.  It is a bit of a slow mover, but it is acting correctly, so let’s take a look again.

This chart was from March 27 and was a break out & back test. It ran from $37 to $39

 

April 11-  I used this in the weekly report last week to show how NEM is putting in higher lows at each ICL.  That means we do have leaders leading the way, even though GDX & GDXJ have gone sideways.  THIS is telling me that when GDX breaks out from that sideways move,   IT SHOULD BE UPSIDE. The question last week was  “it looks like it wants to run to the highs near $45, will it?”

NEM WEEKLY – $41.60 and the ‘cup’ formation looks excellent.  Downside risk looks small compared to the potential upside.

 

The THEME PICTURE indicates that I’ve been taking note of some CHANGES this week. In past Weekend reports I mentioned that I’d be looking for the possibility that  THE GENERAL MARKETS may have started topping ( Or beginning to consolidate for a while), and if so, I am thinking that the Miners would start seeing money flow into them.  I have been saying all along that I think 2018 will be a year of strong gains for the Miners.  Let’s look for evidence of a change, and be ready to benefit from what we see.

THM – Here’s a big change!   We are looking at a weekly chart of THM, and a 42% pop this week alone.  These bases are going to be explosive, and THM already did a shake out at the DEC ICL.   This is obviously VERY ENCOURAGING for those that believe in the upside that I have been pointing out for Miners in 2018.

 

TRX – Here is another change.  I own a good amount of TRX, and had a nice surprise gain of 26.5%.  These bases are starting to burst higher.  Look at the potential here too.  Is it too late to buy?  Not for the Long term, but…

TRX DAILY  – It is not considered a ‘safe’  or ‘low-risk entry’ when price gets extended above a base, because they can pull back sharply too. When the measured move is done,  I always  look for a ‘bull flag’ or other form of consolidation to the 10sma to add. TRX has 2 ‘measured moves’ and the blue one is complete.  It could extend to the Magenta top.

THM– They DO pause along the way, and there will be pull backs. It becomes a ‘Buy the dip’ situation.

 

BACK TO A POSSIBLE CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN MINERS

 

CDE WEEKLY– Is this a small sign of a coming change in CDE?  Did it start to break out this week? It is close to a break out and it is rising from a thick congestion area. Those can build a lot of energy for the push higher.   I wont sell this unless it breaks below the apex, and was mentioned as a low risk buy. It still is a low risk but if you use a stop.

 

AG WEEKLY  (Silver) –  This is a very explosive set up after boring & frustrating people for over a year too.  This also may be ready to break out, and that may have been the final ‘shake out lows’ on that Feb drop (an ICL for AG) that miners experienced.

 

EXK WEEKLY – EXK was basically going sideways for the past 2 ICLs.  CHANGE?  It is now breaking out and is a Silver Miner that put in 16% gains this week. We ARE seeing a change taking place with some of these Miners. A Bullish break out of their bases could indicate that some Silver Miners are starting to lead the way for Silver.

AXU –  AXU was up almost 10% this week, as another Silver stock that has a solid consolidation. This ran well in 2016, from $0,20 to $2.50 an that is about 1200%! Sometimes the beaten down penny stock is the REAL Winner.  I can tell you that NEM will not run 1200%  🙂   AXU  has NOT dropped below $1.00 again.

 

FSM DAILY –  FSM is just starting to break out.  This also looks like it may be ready to change from a BASE to an UPTREND. Will it back test the base break out?  They don’t always, but this one may, because …

 

FSM DAILY – When I zoom in, it could be a Cup & Handle back test too. I own it and I will be adding if it does.

FSM WEEKLY–  And the bigger weekly cup & handle potential is inviting too. You have not ‘missed the move’ in FSM either.

 

HL #1 – HL has not been doing very much, but was that a slam down final capitulation low?  It is still lingering at the lows, so

1.  Is it ugly?   Or

2.  Is it an opportunity that may also enjoy some bullish change soon?

 

HL#2 – It might actually be ready to break out. A break out is a ‘BUY’ and it could happen any day.  That DOES look like a ‘shake out’ low.  My lower indicator is pointing out bullishness in this otherwise tired looking stock.

 

HL Weekly #3 – The BIG picture from 2016 is simply a 61.8 Fib retrace with a descending wedge likely finishing up the job. Again, a break out would be a good low risk buy.

  I traded Miners exclusively as they were coming out of the lows of 2008, and also many of you were here as they rallied sharply  out of the lows of 2016.  Many of my ( our) trades were gaining 100% – 700%. The timing of catching stocks right before they move higher and riding them out is thrilling, rewarding, and I believe that it is coming to all of our trading accounts in the near future.  This is my favorite sector to trade when it gets running!

 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST – MORE CHANGE

 

DBC COMMODITIES –  On my March 23 chart 3 weeks ago, I said that I have been monitoring this as a possible Big Change too.

1.  The Commodities sold off sharply in 2014 to 2016 and then rallied in 2016, similar to Gold, Silver, and the Miners.

2.  DBC then began forming a big base, similar to what Gold has done.

3.  So, the Precious Metals bottomed with the DBC in 2016 and formed their own base, but recently I saw DBC (Commodities) lead the way &  break from that base & back test it this year.

4. My thinking is that Money is flowing into commodities and should now start flowing into Miners too.  GOLD is ready to break out from a similar base.   AND…

 

DBC WEEKLY –  3 weeks later we have a break out to new 3 year highs.  At this time GOLD has also moved to the highs of its base too.  This report shows that this week several Miners are starting to Pop higher with large %-Gains.

Are you now beginning to also see the changes that are coming, that most are still missing?

 

  Some have openly stated that they feel Miners are in a long bear market after 2011, despite me repeatedly pointing out what a basing process looks like.  Many in other blogs also feel that way. If what I am reporting continues to play out, eventually they will catch on too. Usually by then the Fuse will have been lit, and we will already be invested in this sector and holding large gains. The rest will pile in later & just continue to drive this sector higher.

  So even though it may be a bit choppy at times, I think that owning a few Miners, especially some Silver Miners, may be a good idea. I will obviously be covering miners in future daily reports as things continue to play out.

 

 

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND, and thanks for being a Chartfreak with me!

 

~ALEX

 

An important Big Picture Report was written 2 weekends ago.  This picture is a link to that report, and if you have time, why not  re-read it and see why my Big Picture discussion on the General Markets is  important to me.  I am not calling for a CRASH,  but the Monthly & Quarterly Charts were a warning sign.  I am monitoring things as we move forward.  We could eventually be topping, or heading into a multi-month consolidation, as explained in this report.  No matter what I do in the day to day daily cycles ( meaning that I am currently ‘long’ a few tech stocks), this report is in the back of my mind, and the changes that I see taking place are too.  Soon I may personally be shifting my holdings to very heavily invested in the Miners ( Though other sectors like block-chain and medical marijuana are very interesting sectors with bases too).