FEB 18 – WEEKEND DIGGING

I have done a little more digging, looking for the best way to answer your questions. I think that you’ll be happy with much of what I have found…

 

SPX – At day 5 of a new daily cycle, price has gone straight up and it has been safe to be long with a stop.  The question is, was it an ICL or just a dcl that eventually drops again? Time will tell, so let me explain further…

SPX WEEKLY- This caught my eye, please read the chart. An A-B-C drop would take this to the lower channel.

 

SPX WEEKLY – A bullish sideways crawl would too, but this would be a multi-month sideways move like 2015. We could go sideways & Chop for the next 2 weeks  too. *You will see this chart again later in the report

 

SPX WEEKLY– Using a LOG SCALE , we simply have a back test of the 50 week MA, inside of a channel. You could still get that a-b-c down to the lower level though, or a burst higher to the top in this Big Picture view.  We use trailing stops when price continues higher.

SPX WEEKLY – Just a visual – Past ICLs were almost always 2 dips of varying length ( Like a-b-c).  Even just sideways moves happened with a slight break of the lows, so I can’t ignore that. We simply watch to see if the markets run to new highs or go sideways over the next 2 weeks.

DJIA – Same idea here, so I am short term bullish with a bit of caution in the big picture. The run did look a bit parabolic as mentioned in past reports, but this CAN still go higher too, so we shall see.  Rate hikes also could begin to stifle things.

 

DJIA – It looked parabolic, but that doesn’t mean that it DID top. It could go further, we will know in a few weeks.

DJIA – I don’t expect a drop like 2008, but it basically took 1 year to clear the extreme sentiment & Flush excess from the markets.   Will a rate hike environment stifle  growth or will the New Tax Environment help Growth?

 

WTIC WEEKLY – I have been saying that I expect a daily cycle in Oil to form as Left Translated, and roll over.  The COT agrees.  I may eventually short the bounce.

 

WTIC WEEKLY – Notice the 1 week pause in the past 2016 drop. THAT was a weak bounce, so I want to watch Oil and see if the bounce weakens sooner than later too.

 

 

UUP AS THE USD – SO FAR, the recent bounce started with light volume compared to the first one.  It CAN pick up, but so far, I’m thinking we bounce to the 10sma and could continue down.

USD Daily – In the drop of March to September, the USD was trapped under the 10sma and dropped, went sideways, dropped, went sideways. This Could do that too, it looks weak to me so far.

 

USD WEEKLY – The drop has stalled at support, so we could see that bounce.

 

CAN YOU FOLLOW THIS?  I KEEP HEARING THAT AN ICL IS DUE. IS IT?

 

USD – SO YES, ICLs are due roughly at 20 weeks, but do they always come then? Look at that RED BOX. That is either a 24 weeks ICL to ICL and then followed by only a 12 week topping on week 3? Or it is all one 36 week  ICL to ICL!  And then do you see what follows?  A 16 week CYCLE in Magenta?  So …

 

USD – RED BOX 12 weeks or 36 weeks?   BLUE BOX, if that 1st Cycle is a 22 week ICL to ICL, then the next one was 31 weeks.  Or is that first one to the number ‘8’, making it a 30 week?  SO, our current count of week 23 COULD be an ICL, but now you  have seen them 30 & 31 weeks long & even 36 weeks long. So this may or may not be due for an ICL, it may be a bounce.

 

USD  WEEKLY –  What if it IS an ICL?  I would say that even a weak bounce would be the Most that it can muster up in the big picture.  I measured the last drop ( Purple line) ICL TO ICL, so again, this could drop further.

 

 

GOLD –  FridayGOLD CLOSED AT $1346.50

 

GOLD – Just a note: STOCK CHARTS  FAILS AGAIN. They have $1356.20 close, $10 higher. Based on the chart above & other areas, Gold hasn’t seen 1356 since 11 a.m. Friday, so…

GOLD – SO I took my weekly chart and drew in the closing price. Gold bounced off of the 10 weekly MA, and does look like it wants to break out. I drew  a-b-c type moves higher simply to show an expectation. This is not E.W. THE RSI turned up off of the 50% line at ‘b’.

 

GOLD DAILY – We are only on day 6 of a new daily cycle.

GOLD : $SPX – If this breaks out, it is bullish Gold. This would be from a Gold move higher, or SPX sideways or dips over time.

SILVER COT – The SILVER COT is back at ICL levels, as expected & mentioned in last weeks report. This is quite Bullish.

 

SILVER – We have a reversal on what appears to be week 1.

 

GDX DAILY  – The daily chart shows that GDX fell to the 10sma on day 5, and bounced off of it.  So far, nothing has been broken.  Reminder: I did say to look at Dec. lows, and “if this pauses above the 10sma, it remains normal’.  That drop had 1/2 the volume as it did on the way higher.

GDX WEEKLY – Last weeks reversal had follow through.

 

GDX WEEKLY – A weekly swing formed.

 

GDX : SPX – Looking at the 50 ( or 30) weekly MA, Miners look set up possible break out from this ratio. It would take acceleration in Miners (and markets can still climb), or especially Miners UP, SPX sideways or down. NOTE: It broke above the 50wma in Jan 2016.  THAT was a BULL RUN in Miners.

GDX : SPX – The last time the GDX:SPX  broke out from a wedge/ triangle like this was also … the 2016 run.  That was QUITE profitable, and the SPX ran higher too.

SPX WEEKLY – Remember this chart? A bullish sideways crawl would still be a multi-month sideways move like 2015. THIS would cause the above GDX:SPX break out too, if Miners rise. in 2016 Miners run, notice that SPX ran higher too, so we do not need the SPX to drop, we really just need Miners to run higher.

 

LET’S JUMP TO GDXJ MONTHLY- BULLISH OR BEARISH?

 

GDXJ MONTHLY #1 – Currently I see Volume almost as high as Jan, and Feb is only 1/2 over.  I see tightening B.B., I see a reversal candle, so far so good. This is a Bullish Monthly chart long term.

 

GDXJ MONTHLY #2 – IF Feb miners price moves higher, you’ll get higher volume & a strong reversal like I have drawn here. We see that Bollinger bands are Tight and the  MACD is rising above zero on a Monthly chart, it is a matter of time.  If Miners move higher in Feb, and the chart ends like this, and you are still on the sidelines, I will be SCREAMING  Jump in!  🙂

” If Miners move higher in Feb, and the chart ends like this, and you are still on the sidelines, I will be SCREAMING  Jump in!  🙂  ”  Until then, we take it 1 step at a time and look at probabilities.

 

GLD:GDX –  After the Big drop in Miners  over a week ago while Gold was holding up, I’m surprised that this isn’t worse.  After tagging the 200ma, it turned down last week. A move higher by Miners next week will likely push this down. A drop in Miners with Gold steady could lead to a break out.

.

That was your  WEEKLY REVIEW, the Digging Deeper part will follow.The General Markets are early in a new daily cycle, so what do we look for over time?   It will either become a confirmed  ICL and rip to new highs, or we could  have a possible lower low ICL later with an a-b-c type drop as seen in the past.  Thus, using a stop ( Trailing as price rises)  is appropriate until time reveals the facts.

 

OIL  – I have been clear on. I do not think that the recent drop was an ICL.  The COT is still very bearish, so I look for a bounce ( I will not play it long) and then an additional drop ( That I may personally short. I used DWT on he last drop , and SCO is available to short Oil).

 

As you can see, last Fridays sell down in Gold & Miners did NOT do any damage to the charts, so the Bullish expectations going forward remain in tact.   Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but the analysis stands in tact after the strong reversal a week ago. At week 23, The USD is ‘within the timing for an ICL’,  but we looked at a chart showing us that they have arrived at week 22 and 24, and also week 16, 30, even 36 host ICLs, right?   So the USD is at the low, but it has been weak, and it could still break down further or put in a weak bounce. Stay tuned.

Please allow me to exaggerate here for a moment:  I received almost ‘a million’ emails declaring that people feel that the Chinese New Year holiday starting next week (& it runs for 1 weak)  – will kill Buying in Gold. I am told that GOLD & Miners will drop due to this Chinese New Year.  Have you been hearing that too? I will dig a little deeper…

 For now I wish you a great weekend and in the US, Markets are closed Monday too,  so we’ll see you Tuesday in the Comments section.

 

And thanks for being here !

~Alex

.

“CHINESE NEW YEAR KILLS GOLD & MINERS”

.

Below is a Chinese New Year Calendar  –  The holiday runs for a week, and the starting date is given.  You can see that it starts on Feb 16, 2018 (Now).   I keep hearing from many that on the week of the Chinese new Year, the big Gold buyers are gone & Gold & Miners will drop.

See the Schedule below , We are in the ‘Year of the Dog’ at 2018- so I want to know …

#1 – What happened to Gold during the week of the last ‘Year of the Dog” in 2006

#2 – What happened on Chinese New Years for the last 2 yrs, when we were coming out of ICLs in Dec?   THIS IS HOW WE DIG DEEPER

 

ABOVE the last ‘Year of the DOG’ was  JAN 29 , 2006. Basically it was the First week of Feb 2006.  Gold was Green 4 of 5 days, Then it was due for a dcl and dropped later in early Feb.

 

Just for the record, according to the above Chinese New year Chart, the following year (2007) was on Feb 18th. That Chinese New Year week Gold moved higher too. Then a dcl was due in March.

THE PAST 2 YEARS had Chinese New Years running into Feb also. They use a Lunar Calendar, so it is on a different date year after year, but  you can see from that chart that Jan or Feb is the week that it falls on.

The chart tells us that the week following Feb 8, 2016 was the year of the monkey

GOLD FEB 8 – Gold ran higher

 

GDX FEB 8 – Choppy, but higher

 

IN 2017 – JAN 28 was the start of the Chinese New Year

GOLD JAN 28  – Please read the chart, Gold ran Higher

 

GDXJ JAN 28 –   Juniors ran Higher from $37 to $42 , I’d love that right now  🙂

 

HUI  Jan 28 – Miners ran Higher

 

I never just believe whatever I hear someone else say,  I dig Deeper.

 

So based on what you see above, should you be overly concerned that it is a Chinese New year and Gold & Miners will drop?  I didn’t check all of the dates,  just the last 2 years and the one that matches the Chinese New Year celebration now ( The Dog) and the year after that and Gold was actually Bullish  in all years.

Conclusion: If Gold drops next week,  yes many writers will blame it on the Chinese New Year, and ‘Asian Buying is absent’,  what will you think if you read that now?