FEB 14th – SPROUTS

/169 Comments/in /by

After Monday and Tuesdays trading, we are currently seeing ‘sprouts’ of growth but we’re  still also  waiting for some stronger follow through, so let’s discuss this stage of our growth…

 

We are also still seeing intraday volatility, which can make some positions difficult to ride, but it seems that the lows should be in place in a few areas.  While we are waiting for ‘confirmation’, things are improving.  I am mindful that the CPI INDEX REPORT for January is released at 8:30 a.m. eastern time today.  I expect  (based on all that I have looked into) an increase in inflation again, but they do have a way of fudging the numbers. I mean after all, how can you gauge inflation while removing Energy & Food prices?  🙂   CPI numbers could affect the futures pre-market.

 

SPX – There are now a few ‘signs’ that point to the lows in place, and it is only day 2.  If you bought this reversal you could raise your stop a bit off of the lows.  It still could be a choppy bottoming process, but this does look like a dcl that will confirm soon.

 

WTIC  – No change on my thoughts with Oil, it was getting late time-wise and this should be a dcl.

 

USD –  The USD rolled over after day 11.  Many seemed surprised, but I have been saying that this would not surprise me from the time that the lows were first put in place.  I’ve been comparing it to the lows of Nov & peak in December.   We want to see this break down and allow Gold to rally for a bit.   EDIT: The 10sma is at 89.56, at 6 a.m. eastern time we are now below it.

USD – In after hrs at midnight Eastern time, the USD is trading below 89.56, the 10sma.

 

GOLD –  Gold is pushing against the 10sma at 1330 .  Gold is on day 3, a close above the 10sma is bullish, and a break above the trend line at roughly $1340 is even more bullish.  The line is sloping downward so maybe even 1338 🙂 The 10sma is $1330.

 

GOLD – Sniffing out inflation in the CPI INDEX? In after hrs as I started this report, Gold is at $1334  (Above that 10sma). When it closed, it formed an inverse H&S , and it broke out…

 

GOLD –  This is the after hrs move on the 30 minute chart. There were a lot more green candles than red.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – And we have a trend line break.

 

EDIT GOLD 6:35 a.m. Eastern –  Gold dropped back down.  Is that viewed as a problem?  So far I see it as a possible back test.  CPI is released today and could affect Gold in my opinion. It could Pop or Drop prices initially, but what will happen as the day moves forward?    So far, it is looking like GOLD is breaking the trend line & trying to get above the 10sma to me  (Confirming a DCL). That is a stronger buy signal, and safer if your stop is closer to the 10sma.

 

SILVER  – Let’s see if Silver can push above the 50 & 10sma.  It is still very oversold. Watch $16.62 – $1668.

GDXJ –  Pushing on the 10sma, it looks ready to break out.  What about the lighter volume?  That can change,  see December.  I mentioned yesterday s report :  If we see a pause here, like we did at December lows,  it is normal, not concerning. A break above the 10sma is considered a safer entry with a tighter stop in place.

 

Returning to the Theme Picture at the top of the page.  Sometimes small beginnings of growth are what turn into larger moves.  Sometimes the baby sprouts gradually grow into larger blossoms. I’m thinking that we are seeing a move out of a daily cycle in Gold , Silver, and Miners.  I have bought this low and will use a stop as necessary.  I can always lock in gains later if this were to top early, but I cant make the gains from the sidelines if it keeps rising higher.   Again,  Start small?  Enter positions and use stops? Etc.

If we get a confirmed swing low in place on Wednesday,  I would imagine that we might start seeing a stronger  move higher in Miners,  so the next report will have some buy set ups as they present themselves.  Today is also when the JANUARY CPI NUMBERS are released and if they indicate an increase in inflation,  Gold should run higher.  Enjoy your Wednesday trading.

 

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~ALEX

 

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ENPH #1  ( reminder) – I mentioned this one last week and this week.  Tuesday it was Up another 7%,  this one tends to be a steady climber. If you see it pull back lightly, you may want to ‘add’  or ‘start’ a  position.

ENPH #2 WEEKLY – Just a reminder of the plausible potential

I’m watching the MJ stocks & BLOCKCHAIN stocks since the sell off, but many are still under the 10sma.  In my experience, I have seen many former flyers stuck under the 10sma and make no progress for weeks, so I am being patient in this area for now ( See many of the Block chain stocks for example, as they just drag along under the 10sma), Example below.

DPW –  This is very close to turning bullish from what I can see, when I examine it in different time frames, but it has lingered under the 10sma & dropped steadily for weeks.  RIOT is one that leading the way out of the lows. I am watching this sector and it does seem to be shaping a bit too.

 

So when I start to see a few MJ or BLOCKCHAIN stocks begin to POP, I begin to watch them daily.

 

 

 

PURA  – So we had a nice POP in PURA Tuesday. They released some positive news, and it pushed it above that 10sma.  The MACD is about to cross too, so this may be bought with a stop under the 10sma.

 

POTN ( Mentioned by Tammie in our comments section) had good earnings result and Popped nicely. This one actually never crashed and became suck below the 10sma. It looks ready to make its next run higher.  It is hard to buy one extended a bit like this, but also this can run up very quickly to make higher gains.  Conclusion:  These are FASTER TRADES, and not for everyone, but this shows that the sector might be setting up again too.

URA –  URANIUM has been dropping since December, but it could break out above the 10sma before it hits the lows.  I am looking at it this way,  and I am watching  URG, UEC, DNN, UUUU, etc for signs of a sector wide move. When URA breaks, they may follow…

 

UEC – It doesn’t look like much, but UEC did pop 8.66%.  A break above the 10sma would be a good start, but as you can see on the left of the chart,  it gets choppy at times until a trend higher has started.

 

 

169 replies
  2. deshy
    deshy says:

    Thx for the great report! Just wondering…when I look at the charts I know you don’t count miner cycles per se (we go off $GC) but just wondering IF this COULD be a short miner IC and we’re on our 3rd DC now to hit a final undercut low as you suggested before in mid-end March?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, I’ve thought of that too ( Not a short IC and a low in March, but just a 3rd daily cycle) , but you wont know until day 8-12 or so, so I play it the way it is set up now.

      Gold could put in a daily cycle that rolls over too.

      P.S. I can’t write every scenario in the reports or you would have 50% bullish, 50% bearish. You have to go with probabilities. I went long MIners last week & added already

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        Thx. Got it. Just wanted to see whether the thinking even made any sense…trying to learn to fish myself (slow process). 🙂

  5. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex, if we are seeing the markets turn higher, its probably low risk to buy here. Can you recommend some buy and hold stocks for this next cycle? Maybe just buy TQQQ like Steve does?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      “long term” – how long is “long term”

      If inflation starts building & rates keep climbing, it could get choppy for Stocks.

      If those things take place, you could get sector rotation

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Oh, just a first daily cycle – The semis have done well in the past, I really haven’t run through many TECH charts , I’ve been pretty busy lately, but in the past moves, MU, CY, CREE, etc

          Look at a 1 yr chart of CY for example, with the 200sma. When price dropped to the 200sma in September, like it has now, it ran from $12.60 lows to $18 peak. So that might be an idea.

          I liked TWTR, but it is a bit extended.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            By the way, when I mentioned sector rotation, look at some banks using the 50sma

            BAC, JPM – they didnt get crushed in the market sell off, they did shake outs at the 50sma & recovered already. I mentioned banks last summer I think it was- they will do well in a rate hike environment

  6. RonB
    RonB says:

    I follow Inustrial Metals and Minerals using ix1110 in Worden. I believe the swing low is confirmed as it closed above the 10 which is above the 50. I would like to find a 3x to play in this space, but failing that I’m looking at CENX VALE CSTM TECK. Does anyone have a 3x that fits the bill?

  13. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    STRONG REACTION TO CPI for GOLD on a 5 minute chart, and General markets futures just tanked.

    I saw Dow up 100 pts to down 300

    Is that a False break down & buying opportunity in Gold – or real drop? Looks kind of knee jerk / fake for now.

    I can’t reember when a hotter than expected CPI ( inflation) was bad for Gold?

  14. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    So check this out

    GOLD gets dropped close to $10 and starts recovering

    GDXJ drops to where it was at the open yesterday, down 26 cents , BUT GDXJ was ahead of GDX,
    GDXJ was already at the 10sma, GDX is not. SO GDX has been a bit weaker, now ….

    GDX pre-market = down 5 cents .

  17. GoldenFace
    GoldenFace says:

    ACBFF….looks real close to a break out….above 9.15….already own it just sitting and waiting…..

  19. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    HMY has very very high volume right now.

    They declared a profit decline in their earnings, but had an earnings call this morning at 8 and the volume is very high green,
    and I mean VER HIGH – SO I Jumped in a bit heavily..

  20. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    JNUG opened up down about 40 cents, flying up over 40 cents already.

    THAT was a gift when you consider all that I mentioned below ( Hot inflation report tanking Gold?
    GDX down 5 cents, GDXJ down 27 cents. etc etc

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      The time to grab it was premarket when gold dumped. I had limit orders in NUGT and JNUG and haven’t hit regular hours.

  23. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    I got FRLF before the close yesterday…popped this morning, sold in one account and still have in another…..MJ’s are a mixed bag this morning, some up,some down

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        I’ve traded in and out of FRLF before so I keep my eye on it from time to time ….it’s a good one to pop and you can get in and out and make a little….:) LBUY is another like that…..but it’s up this morning and I don’t have that one….

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      POTN still finding good volume follow through ( I Took this trade when you mentioned it , maybe just as a trade until maybe it reaches former highs- maybe longer? I’ll have to see how it goes) so thanks!

  30. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    man… i wish I added this AM…. my miners got late adds, luckily locked in some nice gains on JUG, but now regretting selling for 1.30 gain… coulda had a bigger piece of pie today.. oh well.. CF, give me the green light on what to ad lol

    • Ralph Wiederzane
      Ralph Wiederzane says:

      I actually sold some of my miners just now as GDX and GDXJ are back at the 200 MA and volume is light, as you said. I feel wrong, but have to sell into big strength. Not sure when I will buy back.

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        whew! I thought I was the only one to do that in this strength (i.e. possibly wrong footed). Lots of juniors also nearing that 200dma so I’ll wait till they hop above and have clear stops below. At least that’s the plan…

  35. Chris Fikis
    Chris Fikis says:

    10 year about to hit 2.9%. Most so called experts feel that 3% will take down the market….. we’ll see.

      • pankef
        pankef says:

        Major bear markets have previously commenced with an inversion; and the inversion I am referring too is the 3month t-bill rate going above the 30 year yield; that is how we used to look at the curve back in the 70’s, a real difficult task and has only occurred a handful of times in the past 100 years with devastating effects

  36. Robert Peyser
    Robert Peyser says:

    ICL ahead of us in gold? Alex do you think we have an ICL in gold ahead of us. Was this just a DCL we just had?

  37. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    CF, what do you make of how hard the miners pulled back to find their DCL after the 1st daily cycle, are you concerned by the severity, or instead thinking it means even bigger potential upside for the 2nd daily cycle?

  38. GoldenFace
    GoldenFace says:

    call me crazy but this looks like on the gold chart that we are about 20 bucks from breakout with no resistance for about 300 bucks…..AND a trap just got snapped shut on the bears!
    New target March 31 GDXJ 65? JNUG 45? Could it happen?

  39. Bill
    Bill says:

    I often hear these conspiracy theories. The big boys sell miners when the stock is high and then buy low. BUT, when the price of the miners gets low, they dump a bunch of shares to drive through the stops. IF they sold their shares at the high prices, how do they have any left to sell later to drive the prices through the stops? If they held a massive amount of shares to be able to do that, then they rode the price all the way down and sold at the bottom. Doesn’t make sense, what am I missing?

    • miller
      miller says:

      Bill, read up on Wykoffs methods of distribution and accumulation phases..he explains how they do it pretty well. They sell at the top, on on the way up, and then short it to force prices lower , buying and shorting the all down..always accumulating on average in lower ranges. Opposite for distibution.

  40. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    well I was too scared to buy some bigger boards the last few days… and theyre all rocketing out again… kinda sad about it

  41. Jeff
    Jeff says:

    All I know is I am having a great day. Staying strong and holding on which has not been easy. Alex’s charts help me stay bullish in the big picture.

  42. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    I´m not a fan of New Gold, but when is the last time we saw it up 10% in a day? Do I have to start buying back some of the miners I sold recently, and today?

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        I am there with you, and I don´t take it lightly being I am ok with riding drawdowns. The only good thing is I had about 25% of my positions for this bounce still intact, but even those I sold today. I feel out of touch with miners, tough because I spent so much time looking for the December low to load up and hold for a couple years.

        We will get another chance, the hardest part for me now is to decide how much to buy back into this strength. I hate paying up, and ESPECIALLY in this group, so it should be very light. Maybe I will just buy back a little less than I sold this morning, get accounts to 20% invested. Then I won´t care what happens, I´m just trying to get my head screwed on straight!!! )

        • Hawaiifive0
          Hawaiifive0 says:

          Yes, me too. What has me stumped is the movement in GDX and GDXJ. They just don’t look like 2nd DCL because they retraced too much of the first DCL. So unless Alex can put me in something that hasn’t already moved too far, I guess I’m stuck waiting for the next real ICL in May or June.

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            I was down huge but didn’t look at my account on Friday and just kept listening to Alex. I’m not out of the woods yet, but getting there.

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            You were scared??? Some serious character building, let me tell you. 2.5% more then I’m out of the woods in JNUG. Honestly, if it wasn’t for you I would have sold and then been too gun shy to buy back.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I grabbed a good size position at JNUG $13 and it was not bad for a day or 2, and then when it broke down, I had to stop out at $12.70 & try again later.

            THAT is the harder part, trying again…especially because we saw selling for something like 9 out of 11 days. It felt relentless, but the reversal at the shake out area was telling. Volume kept growing, but price started gaining traction and it looked like sellers drying up & BIG buyers adding- so I jumped back in , used a stop, and decided to join them & try to figure it out on the weekend

            I was scared for those riding JNUG down, because I have done that before and it has a sickening feeling to it . Day after day selling adds up on 3x etfs.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            H50 – I’m a little baffled, did you not read the weekend report?

            I made such a big deal out of my research, and what I found, and how amazed I am at what I found.
            How could anyone miss that? I thought that I was extremely clear?

            I need to go re-read my weekend report, because I played this exactly how I felt in that weekend report.

          • Kathleen Chow
            Kathleen Chow says:

            CASA still undervalued here, thinking 25ish target if you want to watch. Or watch for SNAP near key moving averages for entry on mkt pullback. There’s a character change in this one since it reported last week. It held up in the market carnage, as did TWTR.

          • Kathleen Chow
            Kathleen Chow says:

            CF, I get a bit confused reading it at times (really my dyslexia kicks in), so if you could do a quick one or two sentence conclusion, it would be really helpful. Thanks:)

      • Kathleen Chow
        Kathleen Chow says:

        I know the feeling well. The first thing I sold were my triples when the bottom fell out of the market (Thurs, if I recall) and of course it was so difficult to pull the trigger. I’m back in with only token position in JNUG avg mid 13ish.

        • Hawaiifive0
          Hawaiifive0 says:

          Yes. I held even longer hoping for a reversal and just trashed my account. Then I held the individuals miners even longer finally selling at the bottom on Friday. Awful timing. Sad part is I was up nicely until the 24th and should have sold everything immediately on the 25th.

  48. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    MINERS popping 8 , 10, 15% all over. Sure, we have had a 15% POP in something in the past & watched it pull back 5 % the next day & 5% again, and that becomes a buyable bull flag, but this move seems to be he real deal.

    Think about what has unfolded before your eyes….

    This
    was a shake out this morning after CPI. & Inflation came in HOT, and
    Gold dropped $10?? C’Mon??

    I wrote below at that time that that is a fake drop. Now
    when you see things just take off and go up & Up & up – you have SHORTS that
    probably doubled their positions on that DROP Pre Market,

    They are bailing
    out- plus you have buyers jumping in –

    and some shorts probably waiting for a pull back to
    get out & They are not seeing one, so they may hold & hope for
    one tomorrow, or they may cause even more of a short covering going into the close ( That one I dont know what will happen)

    If we continue to go higher, they’ll cover & push it
    higher.

    I’ll explain more in the next repor

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Two weeks ago inflation crushed miners. Today is boosts gold!! (Inflation should be bullish).

      Man, I woke up at 430 and saw the inflation data and had a chance to buy a 2nd tranche of options and did not. Grrr…lazy!! I have a first tranche but man it’s a light position. I was too scared at first (that’s the right feeling, eh). A pullback here and day 4 though sounds right to add?!!

  49. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    It’s a tiny bit funny, but this is a true story….

    I got from a personal friend of mine …..” Hey, I need something to buy in the Miners sector. I wanted XXX and XXX but they are up 10%, I dont want to buy after that gain.”

    So I said, “What about AUMN, it seems to be coming out of a base” and he reply,s
    ” I dont know, it doesn’t look to be reacting to Gold as much as the others, it is only up 2 cents ”

    The funny part is that AUMN up 2 cents is 6%, but it looks like it is just getting going. That person didnt want to buy anything up 10%, but 6% isn’t enough. I dont know if I can help , unless I push the buy button for him – lol . And I AM NOT making fun of anyone, I’m just saying – if 10% is too much, and 6&% is not enough? I’m kind of struggling looking for that 7% gainer 🙂

  50. Jeff
    Jeff says:

    My account recovered well enough to let me lighten up to 70% long just now. Want to have some cash on hand in case we give back some here.

  52. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Alex, I know miners have taken all the oxygen out of the room but is it time for a oil trade before the bell?

  53. Lisa Giangreco
    Lisa Giangreco says:

    Alex- are you thinking the miners are showing the same or similar pattern as they did in January 2016? The sudden move down breaking the prior lows (at least on GDX) followed by a launch?

    • Ralph Wiederzane
      Ralph Wiederzane says:

      I read the weekend report again, CF was making comparisons to how we came out of the bear market low in Jan 2016! I am buying some shares back, not going heavy, and not going leverage, need to get back in sync.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes H50 – That is what I was trying to say. 🙂
      We saw this in 2016, but over time, we tend to forget . I was writing reports then, and I remember the shake out and
      I was wondering why Miners broke down. THEN after that rocket launch in 2016 & rally , you just know BIG MONEY wanted in – and to gain big positions, they need to make it look ugly and weak and get people to sell, so they can load up.

      • SonOfGud
        SonOfGud says:

        problem is … this recent 15% drop in GDX is nowhere near the ugliness of that 40% drop in summer 2015.

  55. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    FWIW, I have noticed that after a big 10-15% up day like today, JNUG/NUGT typically drop the next morning down to roughly 50% of the previous day’s candle. So you MIGHT be able to buy JNUG in the $14.75 to $15 range tomorrow morning, typically in the first 30-45 minutes of trading.

    No guarantees! Just something to watch for tomorrow if you are feeling left out of today’s action in miners.

    Fortunately, I took the risk of loading up heavy in TQQQ and some JNUG last Friday and it’s paying off. As Alex says, sometimes buying a possible “bottom” works, other times it doesn’t. This time it is working out and both TQQQ and JNUG are now strong confirmed “buys” (UP trend) on my daily charts.

    Good trading to all!

    • Peter
      Peter says:

      I would think at least a back test of the 50 and/or 200 day is in the cards for GDX/J. Total speculation though.

  56. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    I went ahead and added back some shares in miners, sizes that will allow me to hold through a pullback which could come as soon as tomorrow, I have no idea.

  57. MarkMarin
    MarkMarin says:

    Standing ovation….CF nailed the turn in miners, provided lots of past examples and also various miners to consider. In my opinion, for those not positioned, buy any pullbacks.

    • Faye
      Faye says:

      I’m not at this time. Probably should but I’m waiting for awhile. Just stay in the miners. That’s where the $$$$ is right now.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I tend to agree, I was just posting above that THM, TRX, NG, HMY, CDE made great gains, and using cycles, we should only be on day 4 . This could get pretty profitable as a sector, the way Miners usually move

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      You could, because the lows do seem to be in, but I find that awesome days in TQQQ can be 4-6%, maybe a bit more.

      And in just regular Miners, they also can have 13-16 % gains ( Crazy) THM, TRX, NG, HMY, CDE, etc all made great gains .

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I have TQQQ, SVXY from the Friday lows. Trailing the stop. Probably should have added more but a bit late to add.

    • fubsy_cooter
      fubsy_cooter says:

      I bought on the first bounce which was followed by a drop and again on friday…
      QQQ XBI MSFT ATVI
      Intend to hold them for a while if last week proves to be the lows.
      Also bought SLV GDX GDXJ on the way down, and added to GDXJ, JNUG on Friday.

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