I want to do a quick market review, and then I have some very interesting charts of Gold & The Miners pertaining to the situation that we find ourselves in currently. I want to use this Friday report to further prepare us for what is coming in the Precious Metals Sector…
SPX – Day 42 is late for a daily cycle and I expect a pull back eventually, but these markets are very strong. Last weekends report pointed out that the ‘weekly charts’ looked to be heading into a parabolic run, and this week may close at highs again! ‘Longs’ just continue to take advantage of this never ending gift with a trailing stop 🙂
USD – The USD is due for a bounce, which should Push Gold into a dcl. It often bounces around the lows before gaining traction, as shown here in boxes.
WTIC – Oil also is due to pull back, and that COT report shows Smart money extremely short. I have been waiting for a pull back and a break down below the 10sma into a dcl as a buying opportunity. This looks bullish, but could the dip begin here? 🙂 Well…
OIH – The OIH broke and closed below the 10sma, so maybe it is leading the way lower to a dcl. See the chart.
XOP– The XOP also closed below the 10sma. The XLE did not (yet).
PRECIOUS METALS- ARE WE THERE YET?
We seem to be close, even though daily cycles have, in the past, lasted 30+days. I want to explain why we could realistically find the DCL next week. The first 2 charts are where we are now, and then I will discuss the dcl (Daily Cycle low) a bit further. EDIT: I write the reports late at night, and proof read & release in the morning. As I proof read, Gold is up $8.00 ( Today is day 25).
GOLD DAY 24 – Gold peaked on day 22 so far and the 10sma is at 1325. Gold broke the 10sma, but did not close below it or the trend line, and we look for that to happen on a dip into a dcl. Even as Gold bounces here, I will show you something very interesting about that set up. This move higher should be a ‘fake out’.
GOLD – Zooming in, it does look like Gold closed below the trend line, but not below the 10sma. Let’s examine things a bit closer. I doubt that this is a dcl, but we have been encouraged not to sell anyway, if it ran higher from here.
GDX – GDX closed slightly below the 10sma again but not the trend line at this point.
Now I want to review some DCL’s and give you an idea of where we could be in the stream if time 🙂
REVIEW FOR GOLD CURRENTLY– WE HAVE A PEAK ON DAY 22 AND ARE ON DAY 25 TODAY (Friday), POSSIBLY ABOUT TO BREAK THE TREND LINE
NOW LET’s LOOK AT OLDER GOLD ICLs and their first daily cycle lows (DCL). Just an observation, but NOT necessary, many GOLD runs out of the ICL landed on the 50sma as a back test at the dcl ( Red Arrows) often roughly a 4-5 day drop.
Let’s zoom in on a couple of those DCLs
GOLD DEC ICL 2016 & DCL Jan 2017 – I wanted to point out that the peak was day 2o at first, then a 2 day drop to the 10sma, then the real Peak came on a bounce on day 25. We are on day 25 today. The DCL was DAY 28 near the 50sma. This is Very similar to what we have right now, even if we bounce today. Interesting.
This is the same chart, but I want to point out something else about the GOLD DEC 2016 ICL and JAN DCL 2017. Take a look again and take note of the date JAN 29th DCL on day 28. SO WE SEE THAT THE DCL WAS JAN 29…
GDXJ DEC ICL to JAN 2017 DCL. Now take a look at JAN 29th on the MINERS chart.
1. Yes the 10sma was broken, 2. Yes the trend line broke, but 3. The Miners DID NOT drop to the 50sma like Gold. This is a MILD DCL for Miners. THIS IS WHY I MENTIONED that maybe you do not want to sell out of positions completely, just because we are calling for a dcl. GOLDS DCL dropped for 4 days to the 50sma, MINERS WENT SIDEWAYS.
That said, Now I will show you the opposite:
AUGUST 2017 GOLD – Now looking at GOLDS ICL in JULY 2017 and THE DCL THAT CAME IN AUGUST- Please read the chart, you will see that Gold remained stronger than Miners at the dcl, but Miners still performed very well in the 2nd daily cycle.
AUGUST 2017 GDXJ – Now when we look at the JULY 2017 GDXJ ICL and August DCL, we see a deeper sell off in GDXJ than Gold had. The good news is that if you held positions or added, the recovery was solid and JNUG actually ran from under $16 to almost $26 in the 2nd daily cycle.
The reason that I wanted to point out these moves from ICLs to the first DCL is because they are similar to where we are right now. Visual aides can be every helpful when we see how these things have played out in the past.
I have mentioned that we are expecting a dip into a dcl, especially once Golds count enters the 20’s. It can happen in the 30+ day time period, but these charts show you that with Gold, the dip often was often a fast 4-5 day drop in the 20’s, and it wasn’t always all that deep. This helps us to be prepared.
The waiting is boring and it is the hardest part, but as a quick review, I will just say this…
#1 – GOLD IS ON DAY 25 Today ( Friday) and the 10sma is at 1325. The trend line break that we are looking for was close, but I tend to think we dip further next week.
#2 Just about 1 year ago, GOLD put in a DCL on day 28 after peaking in the same area that we find ourselves now, Day 25. It was a quick 4 day drop. We could get a DCL next week, and the normal buy is after a reversal is in place with a swing low. You can add as long as you know that we could drop next week and can weather that kind of temporary drop.
Are we there yet? Hang in there, it seems that we may be very close. The next run higher in the precious metals sector should be very profitable! 🙂
In the weekend report, I will return to the big picture view and cover where I think we are going from here.
Enjoy your Friday trading and thanks for being here at Chartfreak!
~ALEX
2 charts of AEYE – Not a trade / investment for everybody, but this over the counter company released earnings on Jan 11th, and seems to have gained a lot of traction. It Popped on strong volume after the earnings release…
AEYE WEEKLY– You can see that it has a long base and a run higher could tack on really good % gains over time. I am mentioning it for 2 reasons, the 172% increase in revenue and 232% growth. You can BUY & HOLD and see if it pays off, or you can put it on a watch list and keep an eye on it going forward.
Jan 18th – More Picks 
JAN 20 Weekend Report
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Hi Alex, top of the morning to you!
Do you see silver and the silver stocks pretty much running in line with gold and the gold miners or leading or lagging?
Thanks in advance!
They seem to be slightly behind in this first daily cycle
It is very educational. Thank
Nice report. I’ve been through a few ICL’s with you and this is where I have to fight the demons in my mind and not let the stops get hit without a good reason.
Yes, one thing that I have found that people learn from cycles is that we expect the trend line to break into a dcl.
My newer readers used to tell me that they always set their stops just under the trend line, and a break of the trend line stops them out for safety in a sell off.
In the bear market, that does work well, but in more bullish times, shortly after the trend line break, we usually see the reversal take place and they had to enter positions higher than they sold them.
Yes Alex. I’ve experienced the death by a thousand cuts. Hopefully knowing the cycles a bit better will help me hang on through this bit of turmoil. I intend to go for some NUGT real soon
Yes….well done, EXCELLENT Alex !!!!
I think you analyze is very good, it looks like you better can become a good doctor Alex.
You will then have a really busy clinic.
Great work ALEX, THANKS !!!
Thanks Geurt, always hoping that it helps us to see things as they are. 🙂
Thanks Alex, I’ll look to reenter JNUG next week. Id like to set a limit order to bottom fish. Just not sure where to put it? Maybe $17.06? The 38.2% retrace. Did you ever look at fibo numbers for GDXJ pullbacks into the 1st DCL?
Hi Bill, They vary.
As shown in this report with the different GDXJ charts
id realllllly like to add to my THM….
Yeah, It’s really hard to know which will pull back and which may just hold steady.
It did stay above the 50sma on that last dip
Hi Alex, do you think it’s worth holding HBM through this downturn?
Seems like it decided to reverse after I wrote this. You can disregard. Thanks.
Yep, it went green. That was odd 🙂
I held. Now have to get it back up again! Earnings apparently disappointed some…lower copper production, but higher precious metals. This has been a real winner for me.
Likewise. After that selling volume yesterday, I’m surprised to see it up. No complaints so far though.
Did not like the dip down early. Hope we don’t have lots more downside coming. Helps to look at a 3 or 6 month chart.
Alex, as you know many years ago we debated whether “cycles” were a reliable trading tool. You came around a lot sooner than me, but you are making me a believer. Your DCL predictions have helped me lighten up and reduce losses rather than holding long and strong through pullbacks. A few days ago I said I was “up to my eyeballs in JNUG” … I’ve been selling over the last couple days to lock in profits and reduce risk, and now I’m only “up to my knees.” https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f86f3e46a2c190e34e05c9c56c5bd34b80b969b4bab435b8b5fa534d7e232ed.gif
Well, It isn’t that “I came around” – I always saw the validity of them, and they have been a part of my trading for many years, but they are far more reliable if you use them as 1 tool in a took kit with many tools that compliment each other. I like to use them combined with many other things, usually that shows up in my detailed reports.
Various methods used in Technical analysis are very important to me too.
I agree, I like to use your chart analysis and cycles to compliment my own charting system. The cycles have helped me limit draw downs when my charts are still longer-term bullish, so I like that .
Me too, except that the way these things plays out changes from time to time.
Like in todays report, Last year at this time, GDXJ did not pull back at the dcl for Gold – it went sideways.
In September, it over did it to the downside in my opinion, but the good thing is that the 2nd daily cycle usually makes up for that with new highs.
How to best play it is the tricky part. I have a tendency to partially sell 3x ETF and add on any dips.
I hold my Miners and ride that out, possibly add at the dcl.
Well you know me, I used to always load up heavy and swing for the fences. Now I’m willing to settle for a double, single or even a bunt. Easier to to hang in and wait for a “fat pitch” (reversal after a DCL) if I’m not watching my accounts taking huge hits every day. THEN I will go in heavy and go for the quick triple or home run.
Wondering if potential government shutdown will give us our ICL in stocks and final pop in precious metals in this DC..
I really thought they would avoid at the last minute and it could give us the DCL. Glad I stayed in some miner positions (only dumped leverage- still have regular holdings).
A couple of weeks ago I pointed out RNN as a nice long base, with some good POPs along the way. I liked the set up but not quite enough volume to get me interested.
I bought RNN this a.m., because the Volume was quickly 500,000 , and that has been the full day volume in the past.
I am hoping for some follow through in the coming days. Not a BIG position, Just something to watch and fight the boredom – lol
I did the same with ARLZ today.
Nice, I’m watching that too from yesterdays pop. A little follow through could get it going, but sometimes these stall, bull flag, etc. I still like it.
Thanks, but yes, it was mostly out of boredom lol.
LOL- I have to say, the trading that we were doing from Blockchain to the Medical Marijuana stocks, up 20-40% per day, on and on…. I totally got spoiled.
My JNUG from $13/ $14 to $18 used to be quite satisfying. Right now this weeks trading has been like watching paint dry (And in some cases, paying to watch some paint dry on the down days ) lol
ROCKVILLE, Md., Jan. 18, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE American:RNN), a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing next generation therapeutics for the treatment of cancer, announced today that it will present clinical data from the completed Phase IIa clinical trial in metastatic pancreatic cancer at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Gastrointestinal Cancers (ASCO GI) 2018 annual meeting on Friday January 19, 2018 in San Francisco (CA, USA).
I hope its great news, and not because I own the stock, but that pancreatic cancer survival rate is so dismal.
my boy TAHO taking a beating today.. glad i hadnt doubled up on that one yet
Whoa, I hadn’t seen that, I’ll have to check the news .
And when I read about that companies acquisitions and so on, I always think that it is just going to take off and go to $20.
now that would be worth staying in for.
as far as i can see… its just putting in a very deep ABC r/h shoulder, so long as it holds up here
Yeah, here is the news that came out 2 days ago – go figure
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tahoe-achieves-record-gold-production-in-2017-2018-01-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
hmmm.. been selling off since exactly the date of that news.
is someone with deep pockets trying to shake everyone out so they can buy up the lows?
Hi Alex. I may be wrong but from what I read on their web site the jewel in their crown is the Escoabl silver mine where because of local protests, production has been and still is suspended since Jun ’17. I think this is by far the most important element to the company so if they can’t get this restarted things will look pretty dire for them. From the latest news releases I’m not sure how close they are to getting an agreed resolution to Escobal and I think the mine is still physically blockaded by local residents!
Thanks for this.
Any news of starting operations will probably catapult it, but I dont understand selling off after the recent report, because everyone already knew that that production was not there for the last 7 months It would be reflected in last quarters report too. It wasnt a surprise, and they’ve talked about increased record production & ‘all in costs’ dropping going forward in this recent release, so it confuses me that those holding it all this time decide to sell now.
It doesn’t seem to explain ( to me) Why those already holding it and knowing about the draw down in Silver production since last summer would decide to bail out now & not back then.
Maybe there is something more to it, but thanks for the input Chris
I can’t remember who they bought, but it was a big Silver company, wasn’t it? Or was it SWC?
Lakeshore Gold – Timmons camp in Ontario
Oh, that sounds familiar. I owned LSG and sold it when it ramped up from a buy out. I think LSG was Lakeshore.
Thanks Glennfidd
Something that caught my eye is that this is NOT their earnings report but is like pre earnings one month early. Why? Isn’t this odd? Do they expect a surprise response to the actual earnings…good or bad?…
More detailed information relating to production and costs as well as updated gold guidance for 2018 to 2020 will be provided together with Tahoe’s fourth quarter and full-year 2017 earnings release on Thursday, February 22, 2018, after the market close. Tahoe will host a conference call on February 23, 2018 at 10:00am Eastern Time (7:00 a.m. Pacific Time) to discuss the results.
I haven’t checked the very latest updates but maybe buried in there is news about Escoabl that is more negative than previously anticipated!? Investors and rationality do not always walk hand in hand!! Lol I have it currently sitting in my ‘bear trend’ list so not even on my radar at the moment with so many better trending stocks to chose from. I only looked the other day when I was trawling the bear trend list to see what was still in there.
Just another thought but it certainly has been a component in some of the ETF’s and just maybe their criteria could have seen it ousted from the ETF at a quarterly or annual review!? Just a thought.
Found this from mining.com from 4 days ago:
Canada’s Tahoe Resources (TSX:THO)(NYSE:TAHO) is laying off 250 employees, or roughly a quarter of the staff from its flagship Escobal silver mine, in Guatemala, as a legal battle to having the mining license for the site reinstated drags on.
The Vancouver-based company had to halt operations at the mine last July after the country’s Supreme Court provisionally ordered so following an appeal from environment and human rights organization CALAS. The group alleged the Ministry of Energy and Mines had not consulted with the Xinca indigenous people before awarding the license to Tahoe’s local unit, Minera San Rafael.
Tahoe says the Guatemalan Constitutional Court heard appeals of the Supreme Court’s decision to reinstate the Escobal mining license on Oct. 25, but has not issued a verdict of its own despite being required to do so within five days of the public hearing.
“If the Escobal licence is reinstated in the next several weeks, the need for future job cuts could be eliminated, Tahoe said.”
Originally, Tahoe was prepared to face a three-month mine suspension, period during which 5.1 million ounces of silver production were expected to be deferred, and about $10 million lost. But after six months of waiting, the company had to take cost-cutting measures and warned it may have to lay off even more people down the road.
Escobal, the world’s third largest silver mine, began commercial production in 2014 and drove Tahoe’s record cash flow and strong first quarter 2017 results. Prior to the licence suspension, it employed 1,030 people, 97% of whom are Guatemalan, with at least half of them from the Santa Rosa region.
The underground operation, located in southeast Guatemala, about 3 km from San Rafael Las Flores, produced a record 21.2 million ounces of silver in concentrate in 2016.
But it has also been a source of polemic. Last summer, protesters blocked access to the mine, delaying shipments and supplies. Tahoe is also facing action in Canada’s court system by a group of Guatemalan for alleged violence at a protest outside Escobal in 2013.
The mining licences of the Tahoe’s Escobal unit as well as the smaller Juan Bosco have both been suspended since July 5.
If the court decides to reinstate the licence in the next few weeks, the need for additional job cuts could be eliminated, the company said.
” Originally, Tahoe was prepared to face a three-month mine suspension,
period during which 5.1 million ounces of silver production were
expected to be deferred, and about $10 million lost. But after six
months of waiting, the company had to take cost-cutting measures and
warned it may have to lay off even more people down the road.”
That indicates a change in expectations for sure.
That last sentence…. “If they get the license…” , I would expect a flood of buying if they do.
Thx
Thanks for that update Nancy. Plenty of other fish in the sea without these kinds of problems. Well at the moment at least!!
I note that silver is lagging at this point in the cycle, so may fall to the mid $16 level next week. If that happens, I’ll be sorely tempted to buy a 2x silver ETF, to add a bit of diversity to my GDX/GDXJ and individual miner holdings.
Yes AGQ fits that 2x , and USLV is the 3x ( You may have known that, but just in case others didn’t know. I dont mention AGQ as much as I should).
Thanks Alex. In the U.K. I use LSIL which is listed on the London Stock Exchange. New regulations in the U.K. are making it difficult, if not impossible, to buy more ‘exotic’ ETFs. The sad consequence is that I can no longer buy NUGT or even GDXX because the regulators think i’m incompetent. Actually, come to think of it, they may be right if they looked at my use of them in late 2012/early 2013…!
LOL – well you just tell them that you use Cycles to find the ICL and now you want to show them a thing or two 🙂
Hi I’m in Belgium and currently we still can buy them over here
I asked a friend who has an account with IB and he told me he still could buy them
which broker are you using ?
Thanks Ray. I tried with Halifax Share Dealing – they are flatly refusing. However, since seeing your post I tried buying GDXX (2X Gold Miners) using my other Share Dealing Account with Interactive Investors. Although they also complained a few days ago, today they let me buy with no problems. Weird!
You did? NICE!! – I’ve had several people lamenting this, and Ray had mentioned a friend using IB as a solution a week ago. Worth a try, right? :0
THX RAY
sold JNUG for 3%
3% of $100,000 is $3000.
Lunch is on Fred!! 🙂
mine’s a burger w/o ketchup..
tia
Ill take the same please! but u can give me SOGs ketchup
sadly I only made lunch money for 2.
A win is a win- 🙂
at least my account keeps growing
I’m still watching this pull back / consolidation phase in the Medical Marijuana stocks, and trying to figure it out.
So far they pretty much vary, but CNBX is sitting on the 20sma, and others seem to drop to the 20 or 34 sma.
CNAB dropped to the 34 sma and reversed & Bounced today.
Interesting to watch, but not really gaining an edge so far, except that MOST bullish runs do tag the 10ma on a weekly chart eventually, whether that is a drop or a sideways move over time.
I was really glad to get out of EMMBF this morning so now have some $ to spend at the DCL. Jeff Sessions really caused my MJ holdings pain. Still have more I am hoping to exit…..but I will keep my CNBX as a longer term bet.
Yeah, Sessions really messed me up too. RMHB, HEMP, SGMD all trying to come back…those might have turned the corner now….watching MCOA, PURA, and others…waiting for a good signal that they’ve turned….think they will come back but wow I gave back all the gains I hadn’t cashed in on 1/4
I still have AGTK, EDXC, CNBX, MCOA, OWCP, PURA, MYDX….yik!
I still have a number of them also…sold some at losses, got back in some and then they are down again…..duh. I actually dumped my OWCP this morning at a loss, couldn’t stand to keep looking at it. PURA will come back, MCOA is trying to come back (I don’t have either but am watching because I’d like to have them again…..)….have small amount in MYDX so just letting it sit….I got POTN yesterday at that turn…so had a nice gain this morning, then it all withered away….:( I think these are all just consolidating and will come back…in time…I think it will be sooner than later…I don’t think it will be like last winter when they all fell after the govt. spoke out and they all stayed down a long time….it’s different this year ….I hope….
I’m holding my EMMBF…still have slight loss in it …hoping to get it back…..
I made $12! LOL.
Yay! Lunch money for Nancy!
LOL…So glad I have free trades!
Yeah, I’m waiting on some to come back enough to get out….I’m trying to trim what I’m holding….I overtrade. Have to stop that….
I think I am the queen of that…and not in a good way. I said this in a post about metals but it applies to all sectors, and is actually a happy problem overall: Alex gives so many good looking charts, I wind up over-indulging!
I know what you mean! 🙂
Sometimes Miners at an ICL look just like a box of mixed chocolates 🙂
Just realized that today is Option Expiration Day – might affect the big stocks/ETFs
Yes, I think the banks were trying to bring GDX down to take out the 23.5’s but haven’t yet. Still early.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…..wake me up at the DCL
Re: Tahoe Don’t think this was posted.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2018/01/tahoe-resources-taho-thoto-serious.html
Looks like a pretty nasty spill in Peru.
Sorry it’s a blog – but in a hurry and wanted to share.
That could be a lawsuit on the way.
It really highlights the perils involved with individual stocks no matter how good the story and the reason to always have a basket as Alex always stresses and not too many eggs in one basket. I suspect political risk will become an increasing one going forward if prices go anywhere near where we are all hoping!! Tanzania has already reared that very ugly head with the miners based there which has/is costing them dear!
How about the downfall of too many eggs in the basket!? LOL… Alex gives so many good looking charts, I wind up over-indulging! But I took the run up in metals with him 2016 just after joining and am anxious to ride it again!
I know exactly what you mean Nancy. Excessive exposure to a single sector is high risk no matter how many stocks you’ve spread it across. But always a challenge to balance maximising gains in a hot sector against proper risk management, so that in a ‘worst case’ scenario we aren’t wiped out and live to fight another day. And a big difference in approach if we are trading fun money we are prepared to lose or at the other extreme managing total life savings!!
Can we be doing both approaches simultaneously?! LOL…I think that is what I am trying to do!
I would say yes. Split your pot and have a fun, high risk/high reward trading account you are prepared to lose/take a big hit on at worst but also might make great gains. And then have your major investment portfolio, which if its truly important to you (mine definitely is!!) should be run with strict risk management rules. I regard that pot as a marathon rather than a sprint and slow and steady hopefully wins the day. But there is plenty of psychology involved in all of this and in many ways that’s the toughest part I think!!
End of the working day in my part of the world so heading off to a local pub now for a few beers with some good friends. 🙂 Enjoy your weekend. 🙂
Have fun!
I’ll do my best! 🙂
Buy SILJ if you want the lowest vol play…..but it did run from 4 to 19 last year, so that would be a nice replay!
Thanks….added that to a watchlist. Why would you want a low volume play?
meant low volatility……and spreads the risk to the basket….but if the sector runs so shall SILJ
Now that makes sense. Thanks for the correction.
sure thing!
The Biggest difference in my trading came from learning not to ‘fall in love’ with a stocks, as they say.
So to sum it up, I would have a big basket of Miners ( Let’s just say that it was back in 2006).
I would read up on the companies, love the ‘future prospects’ and just love the company. If it started to sell off, I’d begin to hope or ‘wait’ for the good news, and the losses can really pile up as it drops for no apparent reason. The reason is obvious, Others are bailing out on me. 🙂
Most important lesson in my basket of miners became …
“Always cut your losers, there is always another trade!”
And that ‘other’ trade may be the same stock if it does turn around and recover & do well, but if the chart says that there is danger, I had to learn to cut my losses to keep the losses small and the gains bigger.
It is a hard lesson to learn and obey, it takes lots of practice. Once you sell a few & see how low they actually would have taken you, then you are thankful & appreciate it.
Great overall reminder. I am TRYIN’ boss! LOL.
Thanks for all you do here Alex and how supportive and attentive you are. I just also really appreciate this great daily thread. People here are so helpful and generous. Look what just one comment by SOG about TAHO taking a beating today created! Amazing. You should be proud.
I am, it is a very good trading community. And this is on a slow day.
When things start taking off, I love it when people point out ‘XXX is up by 9% at the open’
or they post ” I like XXXX because of the way it is breaking above the 50sma”
Good traders here, and its usually a really good 200+ comment section on a good day.
I’m hoping we get that DCL next week and take off higher for a couple of weeks after that 🙂
Have a great weekend…and we’ll be ready for next week.
The wisdom of a master trader! 🙂 So much truth in that. 🙂
Good points and you can always buy they back!
Is there a percentage you use to know when to cut your losses. How do you know when to just get out of the trade and cut loss, and the move on. Thanks CF.
It varies, sometimes a % will get me out, but other times it can simply be an honest assessment
I just have to ask myself (And the answer can be obvious at times)…
“Is this still doing what I thought it would, when I entered this trade? ”
If not, “What are the chances that something has changed vs a normal dip?”
Then cut the umbilical cord & don’t allow it to keep draining my account 🙂 -lol
Great advice. Going to post it over my desk and read when I smell trouble. 🙂
I use a % of my portfolio and won’t risk more than a certain percentage of total portfolio on any single trade. It helps me determine position size per trade and how far away from my stop I can/Should enter , if that makes sense. If the reward doesn’t justify the risk I won’t enter at that point or position size is small enough that the risked loss cant exceed my % of total portfolio amount. If my entry is close to stop, I can go in larger and still only risk same amount. My stops are all determined by chart supports, and areas that let me know trade is wrong if broken.
Thank you for responding. Much appreciated.
Very good advice. I’m learning this lesson on Novo and Artemis right now.
i copy that verbatim…it works for me… i literally say it out loud…(yes, i often talk to myself & laugh at my own jokes) giggle
You taught me that several years ago now… i still use it
I say it out loud too….there’s always another trade. 🙂 And my daughter says “it’s only money, we’ll just make more” 🙂
Added to my HL at the open and pretty happy I did. Avg now 4.25 Not too worried about a draw down for the next dcl n this one.. seems to be holding up quite well
That RNN is picking up speed.
GSV is as well .. well for gsv
That actually looks pretty good for a lack luster day.
never seen gsv make a intra day move like this before….
yes .. nice.
tx chottttfreak .. 😉
Vacation Maria- Are you looking at Palm trees yet?
tomoro…;)
Be safe, have fun, stay in touch (Maybe a Miners DCL next week).
ill take it… 😉
will try and chk in when i can.. prob at nite..;)
toodles
yes… ill take that .. (again) *smirk
Have a fabulous trip! Send pics 🙂
Wow- up 22% now. Caught a possible giraffe neck
dang gina…. 😉
Sell yet?
You could lock in gains, I’m letting mine ride for a bit.
It is coming out of a good base, but I cant tell what the test results will be.
They must be good if they are announcing at a conference………
I wanted to re-post these comments up here, for my readers outside of the US, it may be helpful.
Click to enlarge
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/769d6827f55fff6c8c80349eea16018c7043bf180feec8b451b69828fc9a97fc.jpg
Just a dashed reply before I head to the pub! But new EU regulations came in Jan 1st and its all a bit of a mess right now IMHO. But from my own experience I’m seeing some restrictions with Hargreaves Lansdown on leveraged ETF’s but so far no issues with IG Sharedealing or Saxo Bank. But I think this is still a moving feast and some firms are possibly still playing ‘catch up’. Total overkill by regulators IMHO opinion though!! 🙁
The Pub!!
I’ll take a Boddingtons on draft please , or a coffee stout 🙂
thats good to know…
GDX/J are VanEck Vectors DUST/JNUG are Direxion… these companies have none of the necessary KIIDs documentation.
GDXX (x2 +) & GDXS (x2 -) are ProShares, and they obviously satisfy the EU requirement.
VelocityShares who do UGAZ & DGAZ also provide the necessaries.
Check out HEMP 10 day chart
ISOLF 3 mth, 6 mth, 1 yr chart….tagging 50 day
thank you CFfor RNN
Ur welcome, it kind of popped up fast – I have been watching for it to go daily.
If I jumped in really heavily, I would sell 1/2 and ride the rest, but so far I want to see if this can continue next week, so I am holding it- do or die style.
yeah.. once in a great great while… he’ll get one right…
L
O
L
if u manage to find yourself in FLA in the next 7 weeks… give a shout out.. I’ll buy you one of those slushy fruity drinks with an umbrella in it… i know they’re your favs…
😉
I’ll have to make sure I do vacation there
( …In 8 weeks).
HA HA HA
HAHAHA
Hey Alex….did you see KSHB hit $5.78 and now is back up some? I’ve been watching it the past 2 days since it seemed to go up forever and not let anyone get in…..
I have been watching KSHB since I missed it a few weeks ago, but I’m not sure where to get in on the pull back ( or if I will- I do still own a good amount of OGRMF, SPRWF, CNBX, & ATTBF)
Id like to get in that as well.
I took a chance a week or so ago and got in even though it was up….and got out the next morning with some profit…..but I was looking at it when it was $4-5 but never jumped in because I thought it was already up too much…ha! Then it ran to over $8…..I think I jumped in between $5 and 6 somewhere and got right out because I thought surely it would pull back ….then it kept going without me…..if I’d been paying close attention this morning when it fell to $5.78 I might have pulled the trigger then..it tagged the 13 day and reversed….so far….I want to make sure it’s not going to fall to the 34 day as some of these have done……their revenues have gone up….2017 was a good year, so I figure….I’ll be getting back in sometime…it has been a strong one….kept going when all the others fell…. 🙂
It could act like MOCA and drop quick to the 34 and rebound. Have to have a limit order in place or youll miss it.
Or even like MCOA 🙂
I’m just filling in for Maria, she is too busy packing to pick on you
haha! My eyes read it correctly and didn’t even realize the typo til I read your post…..lol
KHSB already pulled back to the 38.2% fibo, so that might be it?
Yeah, might be…..keeping my eye on it…..there is still that 13 day sitting below….so….or it could just reverse and go up from here……it has been so strong….so.. but kind of rounded looking on the 10 day and 1 day so watching to see if it still wants to fall a bit more…
So it did pull back from then but now popped back up while I was paying attention to something else….:P
Feel like a kid in a candy store….too many colorful things and goodies to look at
MOCA leaves a better taste in my mouth. #CF
Yeah,
#MocaTreeHouseStout
Haha!
CVRS just caught my eye, it has that look, sitting on the 10, 20, & 450 sma all converging together.
I didn’t buy any at this point, but I like that chart for a short term trade
IDRA is good, but I have to ignore the low volume rise.
NVAX had that POP a few days ago & climbed back up there.
Still like RNN
Corindus Vascular Robotics’ Recent Financial Performance
For the three months ended September 30th, 2017 vs September 30th, 2016, Corindus Vascular Robotics reported revenue of $2.43MM vs $0.69MM (up 252.47%) and basic earnings per share -$0.04 vs -$0.07. For the twelve months ended December 31st, 2016 vs December 31st, 2015, Corindus Vascular Robotics reported revenue of $2.84MM vs $2.73MM (up 4.14%) and basic earnings per share -$0.28 vs -$0.25. Corindus Vascular Robotics is expected to report earnings on March 21st, 2018. The report will be for the fiscal period ending December 31st, 2017. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was -$0.08. The estimated EPS forecast for the next fiscal year is -$0.14 and is expected to report on March 21st, 2018.
Trade got hit in Lhsif this morning. In it just for a trade . I like it here on the 50d ma for quick trade and easy stops.
Thanks for that…..I got in when you mentioned it 🙂
We got an solid run into the close , hopefully we get some follow through Monday as well.
NINE IPO
MACK
crapBOT
…not popped yet.. but keep a watch
So bored of crapBot!!
GRPN? daily looks inviting
took a starter in GRPN at .51
I like it, breaking back above the 50sma
bounced off the 618 – looking for initial PT of 6
MGXMF – Continuation
Woohoo! So glad I held and didn’t sell yet!
me 2
IPI starting to wake up
Nice. A close above the 10 dma may mean it’s ready to actually get out of bed.
it looks like GSV is about 4weeks in advance of other miners for some reason… and I wonder if it might serve as a p/b pattern for a few of the others which are following a similar path..
it reached up to just over the 200sma and dropped to the 50sma… then took off again .
my VGZ just reached the 200s started to drop, so i took profits…. now will look out for a 50s re-entry at near 0.70.
AUMN never reached the 200s, and the 50s is still only a few clicks below, so keeping hold of that one.
Correction: after zooming way in, I see that wasn’t right
It is really lows, however…
I’m willing to bet that they add a load of volume in GDX & GDXJ at the end of the day, and change that.
CF, when u add to your JNUG or GDXJ – please let us know. Im currently No longer in and happy with the gains I made.. Looking to catch the next leg up for sure
anyone DUST/JDST hedging for the DCL p/b here?
The only reason that I’m not is because of that chart of last Jan 2017 GDXJ at this time – just going sideways and bouncing around.
GDX & GDXJ did drop under the 10sma, maybe that is all they do?
I’m just going to add on the dip
and then… surprises to the upside
Thank you for boosting my confidence, CF:) It was looking so well all day and then BOOM the eod pushdown lol!
Hope you and everyone else here has a great weekend!
second that emotion
KEM breaking out daily as well – strong chart today
Hi CF, do you think MTL looks good here? It backtested the downtrend line and tagged the 200 sma today.
It’s one of those set ups that looks good for the longer term, but it MIGHT have a little more selling, because the stochastics isnt quite in oversold areas. it did reverse off of the 20sma today. I personally would either start small, or keep watching it and wait for it to get back over the 10sma.
Thanks. I decided to take an end of day position in RNN instead.
Huge volume came into GSV
rcgr.. over .50
What does rcgr mean? It’s not a ticker as far as I can see
Rich Cigars RCGR.. fyi Chotfreak
*in in Pandora or id post chart. 🙂
has anyone seen her dog?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ff1b37cb5ba99205de5d1edf7488d84e52a215aa9c3e447ef1c657f3911ef8a.jpg
Too easy, I have to be nice #HB
i’m reading your mind there… and i don’t like what i see. LoL
Have a good weekend all! Hope we do have our bargains in metals next week!
Me, too. My limit buys are all in, just got to adjust a bit and watch them hit. Want to back the truck up when we see the right timing!
I should re-evaluate my blockchain stocks. RIOT and MARA do not have great fundamentals and it’s showing through their price action. Hopefully a weekend rally gives me an exit on those.
There’s a new ETF, BLOK which actually looks more like a tech/financial ETF, with the exception of a HVBTF and DLGEF.
Looking for MARA exit as well. Never pays to be last to a party that has already ended!
CF, OSTK is a blockchain stock. I’ve been in and out, but thinking of getting some and just sitting on it longer term. What do you think? Thank you:)
Hi Kathleen. Maybe I might help. I saw your post after I got off work. I know you were asking CF but I thought you might be interested in this OTSK CEO Video. Alex liked the OSTK chart day before Thursday morning I believe. I jumped in around $71 and its up 9%. Here is the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COQvMsbb-Cw&t=419s
Wow! I didn’t mean to post a video. Just the link! Oooops. It came up mid vid on my screen. you may have to start from the beginning. Sorry Alex.
Thank you Johnny:) I didn’t realize that CF had mentioned it already.
I asked him about it but I didn’t mention as a long term. He let me know the chart looked good. I would be interested in the long term view ’cause I like this company:)
Johnny, I used the search function but couldn’t find where he’d mentioned OSTK.
Hi Kathleen, I found it from Jan 17, I ask Alex about OSTC (typo) This was 3 days ago, things may have changed. I did not mention in the long term. This was his reply
chartfreak1 3 days ago
If you mean OSTK – It looks really good. I was thinking that it would drop to the 50sma again, but todays reversal could be all that we see to the downside right now.
I think that it recovered the 10sma too
CYH, breaking out of a base. Bull flagging, keeping on watch for a first PT to 6 then 7
The weekend report was released