Friday 12-29- 2017

Well, this is the last trading day of the week, before another long holiday weekend.  We will be entering 2018 next week  (Can you believe that?)!  It might be a good time to decide what you want to hold over the long weekend,  or maybe what you currently are invested in is just fine.  Let’s take a look at our Final Trading day of 2017.

 

Please ignore typos, I didn’t proof read this report, so I could release it by 8 a.m.  – Thanks!

 

SPX – With a day 22 peak, this leans toward being right translates ( R.T.), and it is holding the 10sma so far. I have mentioned just using a loose trailing stop for weeks and you would still be long these markets ( Some just ride the UDOW, UPRO, TQQQ, etc). This will be due to drop into a dcl in January ( Daily Cycle Low).  A cycle may last 30 days on into the 40’s lately.

NATGAS  WEEKLY – I just wanted to throw a weekly chart of Natags up.  This weekly swing looks real ( Like an ICL) and I’m pointing out that volume because it is a weekly chart and it is missing Monday (Christmas) and Friday  (today). So that is only 3 holiday days of volume, but it is impressive.  This set up may finally break out and run.  If you trade UGAZ, BOIL , or even UNG – Your stop is basically under recent lows.

 

USD–  This now looks like a H&S breaking down, but the USD is within its timing to put in a temporary low. The USD is breaking down ( pointed out in every weekend report), and that will be good for Precious Metals and Commodities in general.  Steel, Aluminum, and Copper stocks are doing very well.

 

 

GOLD –  It is only day 11, this should continue higher.  I am going to discuss this pattern again, using Miners.  I pointed it out in a prior report using AUY. Let’s look a bit further into how this pattern  should form a CUP.  That means a run to Sept highs (minimum).

 

GDX from yesterdays report-  The chart used for the opening picture of this report is a CUP & HANDLE,  but it is a bit different.  It overshoots the cup, and becomes a CUP & HIGH HANDLE.  I just wanted to use that to show you that it is real, and our Miners could form a cup like I showed yesterday,  or some may even form a cup that over shoots with a high handle.  GDX & GDXJ paused Thursday,  and I pointed out here yesterday that it could, so I think that this cup will still complete.  We are holding on to our Miners position. A dip is a buying opportunity  ( I will discuss this).

 

VALES CUP – Vale has formed a cup & Handle ( or a ‘Pan and Handle) and broke higher.  THIS IS WHAT I EXPECT MINERS TO DO.   This handle would most likely form as the next daily cycles low  (DCL).  This is why I drew the chart above yesterday.  Now you have an actual visual in this Vale chart.

HBM – I recommended HBM on Dec 18th as it breaks out. I drew a pan and handle here too.

HBMs CUP- There it is. So it could rest and form the handle ( That could be a buying opportunity similar to vales handle) OR this could run and form a Pan & HIGH Handle. See the opening picture for that.  This copper stock has been strong.  THIS IS WHY I am recommending TGB too (Copper).  FCX ( 1 yr chart) took off like a rocket also.

 

SAND #1 – When I recommended SAND here, it was about to break out,  and…

SAND #2 –  This is an example of a cup & high handle possibility forming. SAND dropped yesterday, so I am watching the 10sma as possible support for a handle to form. It is a strong stock, and this would be a good place to add if it holds at the 10sma.

 

TGB – This was my TGB Chart,  pre-break out.  I bought it here.

TGB  forming a cup – It has slowly been moving higher, but when you look at other copper stocks like FCX and HBM, it builds confidence in TGB. I added yesterday simply because I didnt want to wait for a possible high handle and have to add later.  My stop would now be below the 50sma.  This is a $2+ Stock that could see $4 or $6 in early 2018.  We actually rode this from $1 to over $2 this year too. 100% gains, and it can happen again.

 

HBM – Again, a copper stock moving slowly higher  day after day.  I would still buy this if it stalls.  Did you notice the run from June to September? It had plenty of stair-steps to buy.

 

 

BY REQUEST – Click to read, I imagine others have the same question.

 

The question actually asks, “Are the Laggers ok? Will they eventually move too?”  My answer was that I have seen this before, I distinctly remember us catching TRX WELL AFTER the ICL was in place and it doubled & kept flying higher.  Let’s review…

 

AUMN –  So this is AUMN now, and what is happening here is that it is forming its lows.  It is in a ‘Bottoming Process”.  It is building a base,  but buyers haven’t overwhelmed sellers yet. Moving averages are both turned down, so the selling likely has some that bought and hold still trying to get out.

Now we all remember that JAN 2016  was THE AWESOME LOWS for MINERS.  🙂  What a great run that year.  Take a look at  THM in its 2016 lows – It went sideways for the whole month of January after a POP & Drop.  ( AUMN just did a POP & DROP).  Eventually – it ran up by 400% in 6 months.

TRX 2016 Lows – TRX actually did a shake out After the 2016 lows. I’m sure that you could hear people that owned it yelling, “What a piece of JUNK this is!!” It was at the lows in April!  And suddenly  20 cents to $1.50. over 600%.  We actually caught that – and I labelled it a “Giraffe Neck’. Many here remember that.

TRX -These are a few of the actual charts of our trade back them

 

TRX –  WHY I SAID TO HOLD ON –  This was a long base with plenty of upside, and I LOVE long bases that have the right characteristics. This is similar to what we are seeing in many medical marijuana stocks now.

 

This was what we enjoyed & it just kept going.  BUT look at it in Feb, march , April.  They do not always all just run at once out of an ICL,  that I why I have not recommended AUMN in my reports yet.  The chart set up is not quite right yet. I do believe that it will go higher when it is done basing out.

 

 

JUST CHARTS OF MINERS AND TRADE SET UPS

 

AG – Ag started to break out & then it faltered recently, with a down grade.  When I look at it like this, it seems to be back testing a recent break out and the selling may actually be drying up. This would normally be a buy, with a stop under ( Lets say) $6.50, because this is at the 50sma and shouldn’t drop much more.  I AM NOT BUYING YET.  I want to watch it and see if it holds up or does a ‘shake out’  at the 50sma, but if I owned it, I’d hold it for now.  It looks to be firming up.

AG WEEKLY – Here we see that it tagged overhead resistance & backed off. I think AG will burst through this resistance and run nicely, despite that downgrade. Those that downgraded it are watching it, they will probably buy it and upgrade it, saying that conditions improved and higher price is expected.

 

BTG –  I called this a solid Miner, a future winner.  It did NOT even break down in recent selling and now it was breaking out. That run in 2016 could be repeated…

BTG – And now it is bull flagging. If I owned it, I would add here. If I didn’t, I’d buy it here, because to me this is a $3 Miner that is on its way higher.

EGO – Breaking from a base, it is a low risk buy of a rather risky stock ( Does that make sense?).   The low risk is that it got above the 50sma, and your stop can be placed at the green arrow, and this may have the worst behind them – based out – and are now trying to move up to the 200sma & Fill that overhead gap.  That is actually a 100% move possible for a weak Miner that used to be a winner.  The risk is that it may remain weak.

 

IAG –  I have mentioned this summer that IAG is deceptively strong.  It is a leader among the miners, and now it has begun to run again.  Can you picture a cup forming here now?  A run to above $7 is a good run for starters, and let me show you why it is a leader to me…

IAG WEEKLY – Since 2016, this left the $1 area and formed a beautiful CUp & HAndle on a weekly bases. At the July  ICL, it broke out, at the DEC ICL, it back tested. This is a stock that is falling within the bullish expectations of technical analysis. If we get a strong run in 2018, I dont think that you will see IAG in the single digits anymore, similar to it not dropping below $3 again since the 2016 lows. IAG is still a buy to me, oversold on a weekly chart.

KLDX – Progress and support at the 50sma, this could be a break from a base and a move higher.

 

NSRPF – A possible ‘buy’ with some risk.  Well, it has dropped to the 200sma, and that is what I had been saying I expected way back in November.  THEN we would look for signs of strength.  At this point, it is doing a shake out below the 200sma & recovering.  We now have a down trend line.  Is the selling done?  You can see that the 2 biggest selling days were ugly, and that could happen again- so it is tricky here. If I took a chance that this was the lows ( and it looks like it might be) , I would have a tight stop at the trend line.

MXSG – MEXUS GOLD – This was my Dec 22 chart.  It is only a 6 cent stock, so yes this is risky for that reason, but it also could have big rewards if it breaks out higher with this nice base pattern.

MSXG –  It did just POP from 3 cents to 7 cents and is bull flagging under that 200sma.  It is a good lottery ticket.  It DID run to $0.22 last year, as seen above. I DO NOT KNOW THIS COMPANY, so I am going to do some reading about it.

 

 

  Bad news can hit a Miner at any time, so please be aware of that.  I recommend a small ‘basket’  of Miners.  Hold 5 or 6 so that you are protected if one of your Miners takes a dump, has a public offering, etc.

RGLD may have just done a shake out with some bad news – I believe that it was simply news of a delay in a project.  It isnt THAT bad ,  they will continue the project in a few months, it is just a delay.  So … it looks like Buyers may have stepped in, shorts may have covered, and price did  recover.  We’ll see if it can stabilize from here.

 

CLD – This was a buy last week, and I still view it as a buy with a stop below the 50sma.

 

SID –  Some of us  made good % gains on this summers run higher in SID  (Steel stock).  X, STLD, AKS, and other steel stocks have been doing well, SID looks like it based out and is trying to break above the 50 & 200sma.  LOOK AT SID at the 50sma in June.  That type of struggle may happen here, and then a break out. I would buy the break through.

FINALLY …

 

EMMBF –  I posted this BASE with the right characteristics in yesterdays report as a buy.

 

EMMBF –  It popped 11% .  I am pointing this out because …

1. It shows how the set ups are often reliable ( Picture this possibly forming a ‘cup’ now) and

2. I think it goes higher, but if it pulls back first and back tests the break out or throws up a bull flag,  you can buy or add to current positions.

 

NWGFF –  Some have owned this one for a while and it suddenly has been taking off. It was up 40% midday yesterday.   I posted this in the comments section and also pointed out that this run looks similar to the one last year  (But that didnt last).  Then suddenly…

 

 

NWGFF – It is up 90%.  I got the big question, “When do I sell this?”   Well,  USUALLY this doesn’t last forever, but many MJ stocks have been continuing higher  ( I sold TWMJF, MEDFF and APHQF after strong runs,  and have been unable to get back in.  They just bull flag and move higher).  I can’t tell you when to sell a move like this.  It could keep flying, it could do what it did last year. Take your money and run? Let it ride?  Sell 1/2 and let it ride? You must decide, this is now unpredictable.

 

VBIO –  This is a medical marijuana stock that looks like it may be the next one to run.  I mentioned on this chart that it needs to break above the 50 & 200sma.  We have been riding CNBX, CNAB, AMMJ, OGRMF, SPRWF, etc etc etc-  the sector is Smoking hot.  It may end at some point, but for now I am dancing the dance as long as the music is still playing.

 

VBIO – It actually ran up into the close and closed almost as a break out. I own this one, if it breaks out, it may be the next to go.

EDXC –  I love this base  🙂  This is the company that sells  PHYTO-BYTES.  Dog chews that have pain relief for hip displacement & anti-anxiety.  Their sales have been increasing, so I bought this one at 2 or 3 cents, as a buy & hold.  IF it ever reaches $1, I’ll be so happy.   I’m just holding because I do like what I have read about the product for animal pain relief.    MY THOUGHTS ON THIS ONE NOT POPPING YET:  It is a medical marijuana stock for animals,  so I think that it is NOT being affected by recent promise of ‘legalization’.  It would not be affected by that, but this does look like it may be ready to go higher. Did I mention that I love this base  🙂

 

RMHB – This one also popped and is pulling back. I do not know the company,  but they are ALL running like the ‘Running of the Bulls’ race, so add it to the lower risk entry category.

 

That’s it, and maybe that is too much for the last trading day of the year?

I will have the weekend report out hopefully by Saturday night. Enjoy your Friday trading, and enjoy your long weekend, it is another holiday weekend and whatever you do – have fun, but be safe, we have a bright new year to look forward to!

And thanks for being a Chartfreak!

~ALEX

 

I had a couple of new readers sign up recently in November & December.  PLEASE feel free to email me if you have any questions.  I try to answer all emails within a day, and often sooner.  All questions are valid,  there is no stupid question. If you want me to look at a stock chart that you have been interested, I will do that too.  Thanks for being with us and giving Chartfreak a try.  Also if you need help with cycle terminology –  go to the support tab,  click on  FAQ  and 2 links there will lead you to explanations of  ICL, DCL, etc