Dec 21st – Charts, Charts, And More Charts

I’m going to start by mentioning that Oil rose slightly on the inventory report, and now the XOP looks ready to break higher.   Now take a look at the XLE.

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XLE – This is unexpected, because even though I thought that OIL could tag the $60,  the COT remained strongly bearish, and most Energy stocks began selling off 2 weeks ago.

I am holding off on Energy for now, watching Miners more closely, but looking at SN, WTI, AREX, AXAS, DNR, etc and these energy stocks do actually look a bit more bullish.  The sector is a bit confusing right now, so I am not long or short Oil / Energy.

 

In yesterdays report, I showed the Numbers that I was watching for GOLD to break out.  Those were not taken out, however the way that Miners acted was very encouraging.

 

GDX – GDX ran to the 50sma, and instead of pausing or pulling back, it actually broke through. Can it push above this down trend line? GDXJ says yes it can…

GDXJ – Better than that was the way that GDXJ ran up to the 50sma, closed there Tuesday, and then broke above and closed well above the 50sma.  The 200sma is above at $33.46 and that would be the next likely target.

GDX – This is, in technical analysis, a normal break out, back test and then a run higher.  That is normally a very bullish chart set up.  Did you notice how Miners ran out of the lows last December?  With the 50sma not acting as resistance, this could be making a similar move, please read the chart.

I mentioned that I sold a small portion of my JNUG Tuesday at the 50sma (Sold JNUGG @ $15), but after watching the morning action in Gold Tuesday & Mentioning it several times in the comments section, I Bought my JNUG back a bit higher  near $15.15ish.  Miners were NOT pulling back and Gold was set to pop intra-day.  I held that position overnight, and looking at last December,  I may not sell any again for weeks if the ICL is confirmed.

 

ABX 2016 –  AS A REMINDER,  Miners like ABX in 2016 just slowly ran higher day after day after day.  Breaking above the 50sma & continuing onward, people waiting to buy a pullback missed the moves. This ran $7.50 to $14 before most knew what to do about it- no visible pullbacks.

ABX 2016 – AT CHARTFREAK, we did not let it run away.  Most people got left behind, but I was telling my readers that after a quick break above the 50sma, these look set to run higher the SAME WAY THAT THEY DROPPED.  That drop was relentless selling day after day after day, so we could see the buying in the same manner.  And we did. See the left side of the chart.

SO you should own some MINERS at this point, they may be starting to ‘melt up’ like in 2016, and you usually can’t tell for sure until later.   I was saying BEFORE the FED meeting that some Miners were no longer selling off with Gold, some even bottomed in November, and I showed BTG, SAND, AG, AUY and a few others  as Miners that probably would not hurt to hold a starter position, and then add when it seemed right.   I did think we could get more downside, but some Miners stopped selling off with Gold.   Miners became more bullish after the Fed, and I mentioned that I was buying GPL , JNUG, and I would own more too, but I was holding too many trades  (Blockchain and Medical MJ).  I said that I would be buying as I lighten up on those.  Add tot hat the recent COT reading, it now looks like we are at the ICL.  Miners seem to be responding bullishly,  I will show some Miners in the following section too…

 

I’m going to do something a bit different for your Thursday report. I’m just going to list a number of different stocks in alphabetical order, and I’m treating each stock individually. Now if you want to come back to the report and look up that chart of AUY or NAK, or TGB later,  they are alphabetical and you can get there quickly.   In the future, I will probably go back to grouping them by sector.

 

Alphabetical

 

ADXS – This is a buy, but it is a pharma / biotech company so it may have added risk.  It is a nice base that suddenly Popped, broke the down trend, and closed above the 50sma.

 

ALO  – This is just to show that MINERS are moving off of the lows one by one. If this flags under the 50sma, it could be bought.

 

AMMJ – I posted this in the comments section, looking for AMMJ to hold that green line 20sma again.

AMMJ – This was captured about an hour later, and it closed the day with a solid looking reversal, so this would be a buy with a stop under the 20sma. Volume remained very light, but should pick up as it moves higher.

 

AUY– Another Miner that I’ve been discussing, was AUY. This was Dec 14th at $2.40 and this was a low risk buy too, as it was near recent base lows…

 

AUY – You may recall that I was pointing out the Big Picture potential , since I think that Miners are returning to a BULL RUN.

AUY #1 – Since that day, AUY has not had a down day. Miners are slowly rising to the occasion. You can see that it is moving much like the run out of the July ICL. What might happen next?

AUY #2 – It could pull back and tag the 50sma, see the chart, that would be your next BUY, or…

AUY#3  – Or it may just run like Miners did in Jan 2016.  At that time, people waited for a pullback, but slowly, day after day,  Miners ran away. You may just see a cup form.  See that ABX 2016 chart again for an example of how these MIGHT move if we melt up & out of some bases.

 

CBWTF  – I posted this chart as a bullish set up in early Dec., and the potential is quite impressive if this gets going.  It is a medical marijuana company.

CBWTF– We have a break out of that triangle, and this could really get going based on that volume.  Yesterday it hit $1.00, but dropped and closed at $0.94.  If you bought this, I would not sell it  ( I own it), I think that this could really accelerate with that volume if it gets above this base.  Above $1.00 is a break out.

 

CSTM #1 – I owned this steel stock in the past, it moves well.  It looks ready to break out now that METALS are acting bullishly again ( See X or STLD).  Breaking above the 50sma makes this a buy candidate now with a stop under Nov or even Dec lows.  Notice that it already went $5 to $12 this year, and really only pulled back to the $9 area, but if this runs again…

CSTM – The potential for this one is great too. This can be a ‘Buy & Hold’ if that is what you are looking for. This looks like $5 to $12 on it’s way to $33 again eventually.

 

GPL – I posted this Miner on the day that I bought it as one with a 9 month base.  I bought that because it was a silver stock and Long Bases get explosive! It looked like a shake out and recovery and the FED Speech had ended. I mentioned that this was one that I bought, but since the 13th, GPL stalled a bit…

GPL – And then Yesterday it just burst higher and closed above the 200sma. The Miners are on the move. Look again at chart #1 above –  that BASE could make this continue to be explosive as time goes on. Look for Miners like that.

GSV– Another Miner that bottomed in November and is now finding follow through. This one will probably pull back before breaking out and would be a buy, especially if it tags the 50sma.

KNDI – This is an old tech stock that some of here have traded.  After a STRONG RUN  ( $3 to $10! ) in September, this consolidated and now looks ready to break out & Run again. This is a good low risk set up.  Low risk because we are either ready to break out now, or your stop is right below recent price.

 

MUX – Another slow melt up, MUX does have a multi month base. $1.80 – $2.20 is a nice trade, but this is just rising above the base, so this is still a buy,  not a ‘take profit’. If I didn’t own it yet and wanted to, I  would buy a little and hope for a back test of the 50sma to add more, but as we’ve seen, many of these are just rising to the 200sma. This could easily just run to $2.50 if we melt up.

 

NAK – NAK has dropped to the 200sma, performed a shake out, and reversed higher as buyers stepped in. That was a potential buy point with a stop under Wednesdays lows or the 200sma. Nak is obviously now inside of a larger consolidation as it consolidates ‘news’ of a partnership deal.

 

SAND – I posted this as a BUY on Fed Day as it broke above the 50sma and looked ready to break the down trend. SAND had NOT pulled back very much as Gold sold off, and was basically a $4 stock with great potential as a streaming company . I also mentioned that this was an inverse H&S.

SAND – It did break out, and yet it has stalled last week too.  This is still under $5 and THIS is a company that I think will do very good in the Bull Market. It is still a BUY in my opinion.  Notice how it handled the 200sma.

SAND – The potential for that $4 stock is nice.  It was a rough ride higher in 2011-2012, but it ran from $3 to $15.  THAT is great for the buy & hold  (add along the way) type of investor. I would expect this move higher to be a bit smoother than 2011-2012. More like that $2 to $7 run in 2016.  $2 to $7 is Big Gains.

 

SID – This is a steel stock that really picks up speed the last few times it ran higher.  June to September saw it tack on 100%+ In 3 months. I have made good gains on this one personally, and it looks ready to start a run higher again, now that Metals are perking up again.

SIFY – Another TECH stock that I used to trade,  SIFY ran from 70 cents to $2.20 recently, and then simply consolidated those gains into a triangle. It looks ready to break out.

SPRWF –  I own this and I know that some of the readers do too, so this is a follow up chart.  SPRWF has been dropping, but it looks to me to be a normal back test of the recent break out.  A bull run that is not easy to ride, but it does look normal.

STLD – I posted this chart in October of a Steel stock STLD. It is bullish and after a big run from $15 to $40, it has consolidated sideways.  A break out would start the next run higher to $50+, and this would be good for that BUY & HOLD investor too.

STLD –  It broke out, back-tested ( Like SPRWF is doing now   🙂   and is now continuing  the next run higher.

TGB – I posted this earlier this week as a ‘BUY’ now  or ‘BUY the break higher’.  I bought this, after showing a chart of Copper running higher.  I have owned this several times, and make good gains when it gets running.

 

TGB UPDATE – It broke out yesterday,  this is a buy.

TGB – And this is my reason why  (older chart).  It is now back at $2.40 and this has been a great recovery stock!

TGB – I knew that TGB would struggle for a bit in this $2 to $2.50 green resistance areaa, and that is why I sold it.   I think that it is time to get back in, it is now at $2.40 and above that Green resistance zone.

 

WWR – After bottoming in November, Westwater resources rallied back over $1.  Then , in December, they announced that they are acquiring a Graphite Company, and the stock dropped sharply for 2 days.  Actually, that is probably a smart purchase and I think that this company is ready to go again. I’m looking for follow through on yesterdays reversal.

WWR WEKLY – Long base and a possible shake out on the news of their new purchase.

 

So there we have a summary of GDX, GDXJ and a look back at the move out of 2016 lows.  For many miners,  that was a time of ‘Melting Up’, and currently we are seeing some Miners burn right through the 50sma and on to the 200sma.   Will we experience another slow melt up? Time will tell, but it does seem that we have the lows in place and have started the next run higher.   We do not have a confirmed ICL in Gold,  but we certainly have a confirmed DCL, and the follow through does not seem to indicate that this will be a left translated daily cycle.  THAT leads me to believe that the ICL should be in place.  The COT also greatly improved.

 

Above we also have a few Tech, Metals, and Miners set ups that look Bullish.  Some are short term trades, and can be bought and watched, others are even longer term trades or investments, and I base that on how they have been acting all year.

 

Enjoy your Thursday Trading!

~ALEX