Friday – Let’s just Talk Bull

Today is Friday , and it is the last trading day of the week.  Armed with the last 4  rather intensive reports on Gold & The Miners, let’s just talk Bull here today…

 THE WEEKEND REPORT WILL COVER THE BIGGER PICTURE, FOR NOW…

DJIA ( SPX) – Oh it’s a Bull, no disguising that! We had a swing high yesterday, BUT we had one 8 days ago too, so this MIGHT keep climbing. Notice how this acts around the 10sma in Sept & Oct?  So either use a tight stop at the 10 and risk selling out, or a looser trailing stop & keep riding the bulls  ups & downs. NOTE: We are becoming due for a top and drop to a dcl, but it is not necessary right here – at times we get that holiday week rally before Christmas, because light selling tends to float in bull markets, not sell off. Next week and especially the following week are slightly shortened in the US.

OIL – Oil and the XLE look to be in a “topping Process”, which can take time to actually TOP  & DROP.  I visualize it this way –  Buyers keep buying the dips, but Smart money often sells into the buying, so it goes sideways at the top. Eventually, if a top is to form, more Sellers overwhelm less buyers, and even the top buyers give up and begin to sell.  TOP & DROP. Oil is due for an ICL.

PRECIOUS METALS

I just wanted to start with a chart from yesterdays report.  I wanted to point out yesterday  that even after the lows are in,  you can get a 1 or 2  day pull back that make people nervous. See Magenta arrows.

GDX – we did see a back test of the 10sma yesterday, but so far this remains fine.

SO GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS SOLD OFF YESTERDAY IN THE MORNING, AND SOME WERE CONCERNED

THEN THEY STARTED TO BOUNCE INTO THE 12 EASTERN TIME HR.

AS I WRITE THIS MORNING, WE MAY GET OUR USUAL FRIDAY GOLD UP DAY.  I believe we now have a confirmed DCL in GOLD too   (Possible ICL).

2 reasons for this chart.  1. It shows those small 1 or 2 day sell offs along the way  after our recent JULY ICL. See the Purple writing.   2. The red square on the left also shows a fake 3 day rally that was convincing, but that sell off needed more selling to form an ICL. The next low was not that much deeper, it just shook people out.

IN MY MIND- I feel that Miners are bottoming, some individual Miners bottomed already as shown here this week (BTG, AXU, FSM, ETC), so I had positioned on WED after the FED, and added a bit on the pullback yesterday.  GOLD has me puzzled a bit, so I want to see that COT report tonight, since I felt that GOLD could drop further.  THAT SAID-  I have explained this to a degree already in past reports, and I will explain further in the weekend report.

LET’S REALLY GET BULLISH

I DO EXPECT A RALLY IN JANUARY, FEB, MARCH and  after a pullback, it could even continue.  In 2016 we basically saw precious metals take off in December & January and run through July. I’ll throw a BIG PIC from the coming weekend report in now  🙂

GDXJ – This looks crazy and beautiful at the same time, but in my eyes? It also looks possible over time if the Bull is to recover.  It is a massive inverse H&S.  Now compare this Bull Run to the 2016 run that made us loads of income 🙂 . I could have drawn a 1-2-3-4-5 and if I did, I would have made my ‘3’ higher.

AUY– SO with that in mind, now take a Miner like AUY.  It looks like it is near the lows, but it is forming a solid  base, as many Miners have.  2016 saw $1.50 to $6 in 6 months! See the chart.

AUY – And as crazy as this looks, if we get a resumption of the BULL, it is also very possible  over time. It actually happened before, it can happen again. $2.50 to $20 for the longer term investors here ( Or traders trading the cycles) can be very rewarding, because we are still near lows.

So if you got stopped out of a Miner recently  ( like IAG, GG, AG, CDE, etc in any of the selling this year) –  May the above charts and my next weekend report give you confidence to ‘get back on the horse’ , as they say. EVEN IF GOLD was to drop 1 more time, I think most Miners will resist that selling, but if you get knocked out of a position- saddle up at the next low risk set up  🙂

WITH THAT BULLISHNESS IN MIND…

SAND – I posted this yesterday, expecting a break out, but GOLD DROPPED IN THE MORNING.

SAND – Gold dropped in the morning?  This is a good company with good fundamentals and I expect it to do very well when the bull resumes. In fact, it has done very well since JUNE LOWS, and is pretty much already back at the highs, right? My ‘Investors’ –  the BUY & HOLD crowd,  should be looking at this as a future break out candidate to new highs already.

GSV– DID I SAY THAT GOLD WAS DOWN YESTERDAY AND MINERS WERE BACK TESTING THE 10 SMA ? SOME MINERS BOTTOMED IN NOVEMBER, so I am not worried if GOLD does a quick sell off, some didn’t follow it in November/Dec that much. ‘SIGNS OF BULLISH ACTIVITY’.

SBGL – I got an email about this one ( Thx ED), and that looks like a capitulation Low. The candle can be tested, price could drop down inside of that candle body again, but usually THE LOWS are in place.

NAK –  In Yesterdays report  I pointed out that NAK was actually finding support repeatedly on the weekly chart at the 50 weekly ma.

NAK – And then it started moving higher with good volume, so I repeatedly pointed it out in the comments section. It has recovered the 50sma. If Miners are set up to run, NAK is the one with a load on ‘stuff’ in the ground  ( a solid buy out candidate).

AG – The break out was pointed out Wednesday, yesterday was a buy again.

So in our discussion yesterday, I was showing that Miners bottomed in MAY,  that’s 7months ago, and should be due for a meaningful low (ICL).   In my opinion, Gold needs to prove itself a bit more.   Today I just wanted to point out that we not only had a back test of the 10sma, and then price went higher again, but we also did have more miners breaking out Thursday, though Gold was down.

Enjoy your Friday trading and the weekend report will mostly focus on the BIGGER PICTURE, and review a few bullish signs in the miners again.  And as always – Thanks for being a Chartfreak with me, I think that some very good times are yet to come! 

~ALEX