Dec 1- Buy Day Friday

Friday is the last trading day of the week, so let’s just look at a couple of the important things and some possible buy opportunities.

 

I think that BIOTECH is set up to run again, LABU could be bought here, but ALWAYS use a stop with 3x ETFs.   Possible $70 – $90? 100?

I would consider CRMD as a biotech BUY with this break out,  but these are tricky and not for everyone.  Having said that, I could see this doubling if it gets running.  A News report  mentions “members of the Company’s Board of Directors, the executive management team and certain employees” bought 624,246 shares at a per share purchase price of $0.48.  Insiders like the stock and mentioned that they were already shareholders before the purchase.

VSTM also POPPED above the 50sma & closed there (Bullish), but I didn’t recommend it today due to the gap.  I don’t think that the gap will fill, since it is under the 50sma, so you may want to take a look at it and see if it is something that you would be interested in.

 

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WTIC – I have been expecting Oil to dip down further, maybe even just a quick 1 day slam.   Energy stocks were weak and supported that idea.  Suddenly Energy stocks perked up, as pointed out in Thursday mornings report…

THIS IS WHAT I WROTE IN YESTERDAYS REPORT- I HAVE COPIED & PASTED IT BELOW

 

XLE –  We knew what to watch for, and we certainly did get that Push that was necessary for a buy signal.  This seems to avoid forming a H&S.

 

 I received an email from Chris and he made a good point.  I tend to use the OIH (weaker) And XLE (Middle ground)  and omit the XOP ( Seems to be stronger) , when discussing the energy stocks.  That way I dont get a ‘bullish bias’, but more of an average price reaction.  Chris  mentioned that the XOP actually contains more of the stocks that I trade & recommend here,  like SWN, OAS, QEP, etc.  So why not take a look at that too. It was more bullish on the pullback than XLE  and way more than OIH. Lets look at the XOP, and Thx Chris.

 

XOP –  So you’ll notice that XOP dropped to the 200sma & 50sma and did not break down. Now it looks ready to make a 3rd leg higher.  I am going to point out a couple of Energy trade thoughts at the end of the report.

 

USD –  Still struggling at resistance, but I do expect it to pop above this area, even if it is only briefly.

GOLD –  Gold dropped again even with the USD struggling.  We could get our Friday Gold bounce, but I expect 1262.80 to be broken before we get any meaningful upside, so I am STILL being patient here  🙂  As bullish as the recent move higher began to look, it never crossed my 1308.40 line in the sand.

SILVER – Silver dropped right to the Oct lows and put in a small reversal. Again, maybe we get a Friday bounce, but I am not buying it.

GDX – Same here.

 

GDXJ –  GDXJ did break lows for a new low in November.

The XAU  also printed a new low in November

 

GG and ABX broke to new lows too, with ABX breaking the Dec 2016 lows …

but look at that high volume reversal on NEM.  Odd…

I’m going to put  side note in here –  I think we are very close to a bottom in some of these Miners, even though we just hot new lows in GG, ABX, and others.  The 2 year chart of NEM looks great.  When I see the action in ABX, it looks like one of those shake out lows  (Like a final low).  I’ve been watching the Miners a lot lately and even though I expect a sell off sharply to an ICL, maybe a FED SLAM and then the lows are in, I am seeing some encouraging set ups in this sector already forming too. We could enjoy some very big upside when these get going, and like I have been saying-  We haven’t missed anything yet with GDXJ & XAU making new lows yesterday.  AUY broke down yesterday, NSRPF , the darling of Miners actually got cut in half in November.  Aren’t we glad we didn’t load up at $7 when everyone was calling for $14 in early October?  Patience is rewarding so far, It hit $3.43.  We do seem to be very close though 🙂

 

 

So these are the events of Thursday for your Friday trading. I bought some Energy trades and hope to be able to give them some time to prove to be profitable. It would be nice to have a little energy run before we get lows in Precious metals and can flip the funds to Miners

 

Enjoy your Friday and your weekend. I should be in the comments this morning during trading hours.

 

~ALEX

 

 

I mentioned that I was starting to see bullishness with the Oil/Energy stocks yesterday. This is what I wrote about OAS in yesterdays report, to help give you an idea of what to look for for further bullishness and a possible BUY opportunity.

 

 

OAS Thursday – So we definitely saw the XLE break higher, and OAS, SWN, and DNR broke higher too. This was a low risk buy, with a stop under recent lows.  MANY of the oil / Energy companies were set up like this.

 

BTE #1 – I wrote in the comments section that I also bought BTE.

BTE #2 – This sector has been grinding along, pulling back and not looking healthy, but the BIG PICTURE for many of them is actually quite constructive. I drew in the gap fill, and if you see this, you may want to buy the gap fill. I may add.

 

GST & NOG & EVEP  – were all up  20-30+%, so the various companies in this sector do seem to all be joining in

If you have been with me for a while, you may recall these charts a month ago.  I really liked the bullish look of WTI on a short term & long term basis, so I bought it.  Lets review & look at it now, because I posted in the comments that I bought it at the open again yesterday.

 

WTI #1– OCT 26th it was becoming oversold, Oil was bullish, and selling seemed to be drying up as it neared the 50% pull back.  What I really said that I liked was…

WTI #2 Still Oct 26th– The BIG picture showed a huge base and WTI was holding up well at the top of the base. Excellent volume pushing at the top of the base could lead to a break out & run higher.

 

WTI NOW #3 –  When I bought in October, I ended up selling for a small profit to trade other areas, but now I am back right where I left off 🙂   It is oversold again, and what about that long flag or triangular consolidation do I like?

 

WTI NOW #4 – I like that it is STILL pushing along the top of that base.  When you get a break out from a long solid base, the run can be excellent, and I am hoping that this proves to be that way –  only time will tell for sure.

 

LET ME SHOW YOU BASES THAT BROKE OUT IN ACES

 

If you were here in 2016, when we caught the lows of the Bear Market for Miners,  You may recall me pointing these out as a BUY  & HOLD base break out…

Feb 1 – Here I said that ABX could fly up, as fast as it broke down, so buy & hold on…

AND ABX RAMPED UP in a big way.

 

And the NEM BASE was caught right at the break out.  BUY & HOLD ON.

 

NEM –  BA-BOOM!

The above charts had up & down action daily, it wasn’t as straight up as it looks, but the Precious metals were bullish, and the bases were finishing up.

Now that Oil has been big picture bullish, I have been looking at the short term movement,  which now seems to be bullish again, along with these  bigger picture BASES.  Many are forming long Bases, and the hope is that the move can become a break away move in time, and allow the trade to last a bit more than a 3 – 8 day trade.

 

OAS  WEEKLY – Drop in 2014, Base out for 3 years (wow), Recovery?  I guess Time will tell…