Nov 22- Markets Are Stepping Up

On this holiday week of trading in the U.S., the markets often have a bullish bias, as traders leave early and travel to be with family.  At this point, the Markets do seem to just be continuing higher…

 

 

SPX – I would say that this is day 4 of the new daily cycle. Do not stand in the way of this . Each consolidation leads to another leg higher. It remains a ‘buy the dips’ market.

 

IWM – The Russell 2000 was in a long consolidation as the other sectors like the DJIA, SPX ran practically straight up.  It appears that the consolidation is over here too. After a long consolidation like we have been covering in the RUT, TRAN, and BKX,  we see a swing low, and a break above the 10sma with follow through.  Please read the chart.

WTIC –  The reason that I do not believe OIL put in a dcl is because the dip was not deep enough to break below the trend line  ( usually a requirement) and the XLE doesn’t seem to believe that this is going to be another leg higher.  EDIT:  Oil is breaking higher this morning almost back at the day 22 highs.  I think that we will see OIL drop more later, but for now I am not long or short oil. Maybe this is a short term double top?

 

XLE – The XLE remains pinned under the 50sma and 10sma. We’ll see what happens on Wednesdays trading.  I checked a few oil stocks that UI used to trade.  OAS, AREX, AXAS did not move higher with Oil. WPX looked fairly good. Mixed bag.

 

GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS basically have not changed since yesterdays report. The USD is close to confirming a DCL, by crossing above the 10sma. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens Wednesday and Friday in the Gold & USD markets.  I am still expecting possible new 6 month lows  in order to reach an ICL in the GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS markets.  I have NOT taken a position here long term.

.

So I wanted to discuss a couple of trade set ups at this point

.

I’ll  show you 2 trade set ups that look to possibly be good %-Gainers going forward.   I own one, and would buy the 2nd one, but I have enough positions at this point.  Before I show you those 2 set ups, …

Lets start with a LESSON

.

TWMJF –   Please notice how a stock will run up out of a Long Base, consolidate sideways, made another run, consolidated again,  and then ran again.  This is a bullish run out of a long base.  It is a pattern that happens often in the markets.  So……

RIOT #1 – We had this RIOT set up that I pointed out.  A long base and a long run up. I was trading this consolidation, but suddenly I noticed that it looked ready to break & run higher, so I pointed this out.

RIOT –  And it took off for another run after that consolidation.  That was a pretty long consolidation of about 1 month, but the burst higher has been spectacular.

 

GLNNF #1  SEPT 14-   Again, Notice the LONG BASE. I have repeatedly mentioned in my reports over the past 3 years that I love long bases.  And then it had a Run higher and dipped at the start of September…

GLNNF #2 Oct 6 – There was a HUGE run out of that consolidation that started in September.  Was that it?

 

GLNNF #3 Oct 30 – At this point, I pointed this out in the comments to one of our readers. I believe he bought it ( as did I), but joked that he wished I told him a week earlier :), so was it too late?  My point here is,  IS THIS DONE OR JUST STARTING? IS THIS OVER EXTENDED AND WAS IT TOO LATE?   Could it run higher?   It was 72 cents when I entered the break out trade.  REMEMBER THIS SET UP.

GLNNF #4  – And here it is today $1 higher  at $1.60.  I sold mine unfortunately, but my point is that after the run up and consolidation, there may be BUY signs.  That leads me to…

 

GROW –  NOW WE HAVE THIS SET UP SIMILAR TO GLMMF.   I own this and I added on Tuesday.  Is is extended? No, it is near the 50& 10sma and the stochastics is still oversold actually.  Scroll up 2 charts and look again at GLNNF when it was around 70-78 cents. THAT DIP looks like this dip. Tuesdays volume is VERY Interesting to me. They are dealing with Blockchain now.

 

SRAX – A very similar set up, another Blockkchain player.  I do not own this one, but it is the same type of set up.  Is it ready to just rip higher?  Maybe, but there is a chance that it could consolidate a bit more too. Look at the chart set up & then let me show you what I mean when I say that ‘it could consolidate a bit more’.

MYMMF –  Do you remember when I was buying MYMMF?  It had a strong run higher out of a base, but the consolidation took Months with several Pops higher along the way in August , Sept, and Oct.  It had it’s share of Pop & Drops, but…

MYMMF –  Trust me, it still paid off  and those bumps in Aug, Sept, and Oct are a blur now.

SO… back to GROW & SRAX –  I do believe that these may be ready to go higher from here, even after only a small consolidation. The volume on Grow was rather extreme yesterday.   I also see a variation of this type of  ‘pattern’ in the current trades of OGRMF, APHQF, and SPRWF, and that is why I am still holding those set ups and not locking in current profits.

Looks like this right?  The classic bullish uptrend.

~ALEX

 

 

As promised

 

Many Semiconductor stocks are really performing well.  The SOX & individual Semis are very bullish.  They look like this…

 

 

If I own some and have been riding them,  when will they top? SOME READERS HAVE ASKED, “WHEN SHOULD I SELL, I WANT TO RIDE THIS?”  I always advise a trailing stop and maybe taking some profit along the way, but let’s take a look at when the SEMIS as a sector  could top, stall, or Pause as a whole.

 

 

SPX – Please take note that when the SPX reaches former highs at 1553,  it reaches ‘resistance’ and progress stalls or you get a sell off.   We saw a break out on the 2nd top OF ONLY ABOUT 2% to 1576  and back test or correction…

 

NASDAQ – The NASDAQ in the year 2000 top was tagged in 2015 and after breaking out to 5232  (That is again only  2% higher) we saw a major consolidation or pause.

 

RUT – When the Russell 2000 reached former peaks at these arrows, you can see that it also often broke higher by roughly 2% or fractionally & then paused or pulled back before continuing higher.

 

WHAT AM I GETTING AT?

 

SOX – 1362 was the 2000 highs.   2% higher is 1389 (  or why not the 1400 area).  That is where I would seriously consider lightening up.  Ride some bumps along the way, but that might be the bigger pause.

 

SOXL –  SOLX looks parabolic, so it should top when the SOX gets up near 1400,  and I have also had my eyes on…

 

SOXS ( Bear 3x etf)  –  This has been beaten down. It is at the $14 area.  They often do a reverse split when they get under $10, but if not, I might get to buy SOXS near $6 and ride it to ??

I do have my eye on this trade for myself personally ( & you experienced traders may want to also), but I may or may not mention it in the reports unless it is a crystal clear set up.  I do not enjoy recommending 3x etfs due to the constant action that can be difficult for some traders to endure.  It is difficult to use stops on 3x etfs, losses can mount, confidence can be damaged, etc.  It is tough to just try to trade 3x ETFS without experience of seeing how they can move in an exaggerated manner.

 

ICHR by request.  This looks like a BUY too  ( semis)