Thursday November 16th

SPX – The drop continues as the SPX is seeking out the next DCL. The trend line is broken and the 10sma has been lost.  I actually thought that the 25th could have been a dcl, with the trend line break and close below the 10sma, so now I am simply watching for a swing low first, and then a close above the 10sma.  Either I drew the trend line wrong and the 25th was not a dcl, or this is a very L.T. daily cycle on day 15.  The divergence that I was pointing out over a week ago is playing out, so our ‘caution’ was warranted.

ALSO …

It was mentioned that other sectors were already well into a sell off, with the RUT & TRANNY slowly dropping since the first week of Oct, as the DJIA and SPX kept hitting new highs.   The markets are not in sync at this time.

RUT – We do continue to see the dips actually getting bought daily, but there are not enough buyers to overwhelm the selling. Please read the chart.

IBB–  This was in the last report, Looking for a deeper sell off.

IBB- Now we see a reversal yesterday, and we also see good divergence, so this MIGHT be the start of something , but  …

IBB–  For those wanting to go long Biotech, you do NOT have to catch the low. Personally I would allow this one to prove itself with a swing low and close above the 10sma, for a bit more confirmation first. I know people use LABU and buying a 3x and getting stopped out on a drop to the 200sma is frustrating.  Look at the reversal in August on the 50sma – and then stopped out. It never closed above the 10sma.

IBB –   This has a reversal under the 200sma and looks bullish, but the safer buy is waiting for a swing low and a close above the 10sma. Again- look at Augusts double low. The first bounce did not close above the 10sma.

USD -This was our drop in yesterdays report, I was thinking that it would drop to the 50sma and we could look for a reversal there ( purple arrow).

USD – This may be the dcl at the 50sma, it was the last time.

WTIC –  Oils inventory report did not cause a big sell off  in Oil, and oil  has a Day 22 high so far.   I would expect more of a drop to break this trend line if we are heading for the dcl now.

XLE NOV 9 –  XLE took off out of the consolidation and this really looked bullish, especially if we were going to get a 2nd leg higher.  That was my expectation.

XLE –  The XLE is NOT The pretty chart that it was just 2 days ago. Volume selling is swelling and this is breaking through all supports.

CRK – Some Energy stocks are hanging in there, others are breaking down. If we get a bounce, I will probably sell my positions and watch to see what happens

WTI – I still own WTI & LGCY, and even though they do not look all that bad, I am going to lighten up whether  we bounce OR Sell off.  I personally don’t like a flat MACD with Price rising.

GOLD – Gold was up in the morning again, and each day it threatens to break out and run, exciting the bulls. Miners have not followed Gold and we have not been buying either.  Wednesday Gold popped higher and sold off again. I am expecting a sell off in Precious Metals.

SILVER-  This has not changed either.

GDX – Read the chart, but really , we had no big change.  The 50sma held down Miners last week.

GDXJ – GDXJ made a new low Tuesday and Wednesday was green here too.

I just don’t like the way the XLE is acting at this time.  As I mentioned above,  whether we get a bounce or more selling, I think that I will unload WTI & LGCY, even though they are holding up fine at this point.  If you own those and want to hang on, that is fine, they are not broken.  I just do not like XLE right now, and I’ll step aside and look for some trades elsewhere – unless it really impresses me down the road.  Below I will talk about a couple of other ideas.  Enjoy your Thursday trading

~ALEX

I made a few comments about the medical marijuana stocks that trade in the US in the comments yesterday under yesterdays report. Some of these are now also POSSIBLY putting in bases and breaking higher. This was a comment that I made yesterday,  click to enlarge

CNBX –  I entered a position yesterday, because these POPS look as though they are very much more real than the drops. I also noticed others setting up and even running. Read this chart and we’ll look at a couple more…

AMMJ – This one has been running higher every day.

CBDS & CNAB – Were actually the one that I was going to buy. I have been watching CBDS for about a week and it finally looks ready to break.  IF it breaks above the red line, I will buy it.

OGRMF – I own this, and plan on holding on, even if this continues sideways to form some kind of a handle. It wants to break out.

URANIUM STOCKS BROKE OUT – And I advised waiting for a pull back instead of chasing. I said that I could not recommend a low risk entry as they shot higher.

DNN – These are dropping to a low risk entry point. I would wait for a reversal. I don’t usually do this, but I accidentally cut off the volume on this chart.  The volume  is very similar as the other charts that follow.  Huge volume up, very small on the drop & That is bullish so far.

UEC – Very High Volume Pop – very light volume selling.  This has a reversal at the 50sma, it may or may not be a low, but this would have been a lower risk entry. Lets see what Thursday brings.

URG –  A large volume pop, and right back down to support on very light volume. I’d watch to see if support holds? Will it break down , fill the gap and recover? That would be a low risk buy.  Either way, these are far better buying them down here, than chasing them last week, right?.