Nov 10th – Fried-day

SO MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT, SO LITTLE TIME.  Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week, so a quick review and a discussion on a few trade ideas…

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3 SPX  CHARTS

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SPX#1  – Thursday saw the Markets gap down, sell off, and then start to recover, so we get another ‘buy the dip’ reversal, however …

SPX #2 –

1. I had drawn a rising wedge in a couple reports earlier in the week.  These are often bearish short term, especially if that MACD doesn’t correct itself.

2. It also BROKE THE TREND LINE ON THAT WEDGE, which raises a caution flag.

3.  I have pointed out the divergence all this week, so now we could see a drop.  So far it remained a ‘buy the dip atmosphere’, but  we are close to the apex here, I’d look for a ‘reaction’…

SPX #3 –  Dips have been shallow lately.  If we got a normal sell off ( Say to the 50sma as a dcl) It would undo that wedge and form a rising channel.  We would have a visible DCL.  A push higher and through the top would also change this to that parabolic run possibility that has been discussed here. I will have more in the weekend report.

 

REMINDER:  My Oil chart from NOV 6th, Oil is at a resistance area, but is quite bullish after the recent break out. I mentioned that it can pause, consolidate sideways in a bull flag, or back test the break out (All 3 scenarios keep it bullish).

WTIC – So far we have the bull flag sideways consolidation.  Is that hurting Energy stocks?

on NOV 2–  I pointed out that we needed to be prepared to see dips , similar to the ones on the first run higher, in order to be able to hold on to our positions.  I pointed out 2 dips or pauses in the first run for you on this chart last week .

XLE – After that first dip,  this is actually what I expected to happen too.  A pause in the form of a bull flag, similar to the one in the 1st run higher. This remains bullish so far.

I am still holding my Oil stocks purchased weeks ago, with the exception on WLL.  I mentioned on Nov 6th in this chart that I sold the 1st half at the tag of the 200sma.  The chart was still bullish and fine,  I just wanted to lock in gains as an active trader.

WLL – They did a reverse stock split and it tagged the 10sma and is now back up pushing on that 200sma.  It may be ready to break out now after that small bull flag.

 

 

GOLD #1 – Gold is out of Sync with Miners, since Gold has not broken below Oct lows, and Miners dropped well below their early Oct lows.  I am wondering if Gold is actually still inside of one daily cycle tht started at the purple arrow, since it did not take out Oct lows.  I will simply say these 2 things again :

1. Miners are weaker than Gold

2. Gold & Miners are not in sync right now, so I am watching them separately …

GOLD #2 –  Yesterday I said these were my parameters, and I do NOT expect Gold to rally above the 1308.40 daily cycle high.  The 50sma may hold Gold down.

 

SILVER –  Silver also keeps Popping every morning, but it remains under the 200sma so far.  Let’s look at Miners…

 

GDX –  We do have a downtrend line break here, but no follow through.  Price is being held below the 200sma, even though Gold has Popped $8 for the last 2 mornings. Notice the early Oct lows, price broke below daily cycle low.  I have not recommended buying Miners yet, I think we have a deeper low ahead, and we have been doing well in other areas.   Based on this chart,  we have not missed a thing in GDX.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ appears to be on day 9, with a day 8 peak. I would expect a drop here soon too. As this plays out day by day, we continue to see it act as expected.  If we saw any significant change, we could react within a day, but so far this is going as expected.

 

So I have talked about the mixed bag that is within the individual Miners. EGI, NSRPF, FNV, SA,  IAG, as showing strength, but others like EGO, ABX, PAAS, etc  down at the lows right now. Well, yesterday a few more miners released earnings and this is what happened.

HL – Slam to new 2017 lows

PAAS – Slam

SO I am not in a hurry to start jumping into miners yet, especially since my analysis points to a sell off ahead. I think we are going to get an Excellent buying opportunity that will produce great gains %-Wise after that drop.  We get these opportunities usually only 2 times a year  ( an ICL), and this is when you want to load up & enjoy the ride.  Each person here can make their own mind up when it comes to seeing a Miner acting bullishly like FNV or NSRPF still trading near highs and wanting to start a position,  but may I recommend starting small, so that you can add on the dips.

 

Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend, I will discuss a few trades after signing off. Thanks for being a Chartfreak with me!

 

 

 

~ALEX

 

Let’s discuss the FCEL trade again.  It was recognized last week as a weekly tight consolidation,  often very explosive when they break higher.  It is working over to the 10ma on a weekly chart.  This trade remains bullishly set up, but I want to share with you one way that I often look at this trade.

FCEL  – So on a daily, I would have expected it to continue sideways to the 50sma.  Yesterday, it dropped down and may fill that gap as well as tag that 50sma.  This is still a bullish consolidation, but that MACD caught my eye. That is losing momentum on a sideways move. Is there any other concern?

In my trading experience, I have always traded certain stocks together, and I have mentioned this in the comments section.  With FCEL  there is a small group that runs very strongly together and they always seem to move at the same time, even being weak at the same time.  Those stocks are in a group of  Power cell / battery / clean energy type plays known as  FCEL, BLDP, PLUG, CBAK, etc.  I usually see these run together, so I wanted to look at a couple of those and see what I am seeing there…

 

 

BLDP  – Obviously,  BLDP had a strong run higher too, as FCEL was trading higher, but it got way ahead of itself.  This chart isn’t bad, it just seems to be dropping to the 50sma at first glance, but this MACD was warning of a drop coming too.    And then I saw…

PLUG – PLUG also raced higher, double topped , and dropped back to the 50sma, but broke below it. Right now it looks like a possible shake out, since it was a reversal and could recover Friday.  The problem? This is not oversold and it caused me to think that this group of stocks may sell down further?   Now Back to FCEL…

FCEL  – Honestly, this chart looks fine, but those other charts above cause me want to watch this one  closely. A gap fill and reversal off of the 50sma would be great, but today is Friday and it breaks down & doesn’t reverse higher today, the 3 weeks tight ( or 4 weeks tight) pattern is broken.  I haven’t decided if I want to sell yet or not, because really this chart is not bearish.   I wanted to point this out to you, though-  so that you can decide for yourself if you want to hold this with BLDP & PLUG dropping from their run higher, so swap it out for something else.  Again, the chart is fine, and maybe  a mental stop is just fine…

IF I DECIDE TO SELL & GO TO CASH FROM FCEL, I CAN WAIT FOR THE DROP IN MINERS TO USE THOSE FUNDS OR I CAN FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO PUT THE MONEY. URANIUM STOCKS POPPED NICELY ON THURSDAY  ( URG, WWR, DNN, UUUU, UEC, etc)  and we discussed it in the comments in the morning when they started to take off.  I cant ‘recommend’ them as low risk entries until they pull back, but experienced active traders can trade them as they see fit.  I will keep an eye on them for bull flags , pull backs, or other entry points.   Let’s take a look at other possible opportunities out there…

 

ADD THESE TO YOUR WATCH LIST-

 

REXX  – I really like this set up, but they do not release their earnings until next Tuesday, so this is on my watch list. A break out here could really run.

 

CHK  – CHK has released earnings and I pointed out this POP above the 50sma and down trend line as a low risk buy.  That was 3 trading days ago, did we miss the move?

CHK-  price is actually exactly the same.  It has now back tested the 50sma and trend line. One could actually sell FCEL and Buy CHK is this set up here at support seems less risky that FCEL.

 

SN #1  – SN also released earnings and did a strong reversal at the 50sma, as pointed out on this chart. It looks like a mini bull flag, and I wanted to take this view so you could see the upside potential, but I’d also like to zoom in…

SN #2 – Here we see that reversal at the 50sma, and a push above recent high points. It MIGHT tag the 50sma in a back test, but I believe that SN is building strength to break higher. Please read the chart.  If you see this breaking higher Friday, it could be starting another leg higher.

 

MYMMF  –  I’ve been pointing this out for a few days.  It is almost at my original 60 cent target.  I have been asked if this is a buy & hold candidate too.  I would say yes, it could just continue higher or it may add a ‘handle’ and then break higher. It does look longer term bullish. I plan on selling 1/2 at the 60cent mark, since that was my original plan.

MBOT #1  – The big picture, I’d love to see this move over the 50sma area again, it did move above the 10sma.  This looks like an easy ride from this view, but this has given us 40% gains, taken them back, added another 40%, and dropped again. It is very oversold and may be ready to go again.   Let’s zoom in.

MBOT #2  – It doesn’t even look like the same chart, but here it is.  It ran from $1.00 to $1.40, dropped to $1.07sih, and then ran again to $1.50+.  This looks like it is starting to go again, it is above the 10sma and broke from a downtrend line.

 

MBOT #3  – The 1st time it broke out (blue arrows) it did drop back sharply to back test ( red arrow).  Will that happen again? No one knows for sure, but I wanted you to see that in case we get a dip.

 

Enjoy your Friday trading  🙂