Friday Oct 27th

After the closing bell Thursday we had a number of companies release their earnings reports. Some of the Big companies like GOOGLE, AMAZON, MICROSOFT, FIRST SOLAR, etc were among the group and received positive  reactions, with their stocks shooting up in after hours.  Will this usher in the next leg up in the markets  ( or maybe we should just say a ‘continuation’ higher) ?  Let’s take a closer look…

 

DJIA – I was expecting a bit more of a correction, but this flag consolidation may simply be a pause in the run higher.

SPX – I would have expected a drop to the 50sma, but if these markets are in a parabolic run, this may be all we get as it also just continues higher. Let’s see what Friday brings.

NASDAQ – I expected a drop to the 50sma area,  but all those positive earnings last night in GOOG, AMZN, Etc. could get the NASDAQ  going again too. Look for a break above the 10sma  or this red dotted trend line.

 

 

HPJ –  On OCT 5th,  this bullish set up looked ready to go, and I mentioned it here.  The NASDAQ was basically going sideways and it didn’t find its follow through buying, however…

HPJ – Here we are a couple of weeks later, and HPJ does look like it might take off higher now.

JRJC–  I have been discussing JRJC, and it closed on the 50sma again. I am still watching this one, but a run higher in the markets may help this one too.  WARNING:  I cannot find the ‘earnings’ date for this one, so do some due diligence before entering.

 

USD – From Wednesday, expecting higher price, possibly to the 97 area

 

UUP ETF for the USD –  It started to run higher Thursday, and the UUP shows an increase in volume.

 

UUP –  Breaking an inverse H&S.  I could picture this running to the 200sma and pausing, sending Miners even lower and then allowing Precious Metals to put in a dcl as it tags the 200sma ( We’ll have to wait & see).

 

GOLD, SILVER, & THE USD  –  USD higher,  Gold lower.

 

 

 

GDX –    CDE, AG, and a few other Miners were down rather big this week.   Selling picked up Thursday, and that could be leading to a dcl.  I still expect lower price in the Miners,  though they could bounce soon with another daily cycle.   So we could get a DCL, but I expect that it will roll over  and peak early again, rolling over into a nice buy-able low later.

GDXJ – The selling has been slow and painful for those holding Miners, but it picked up a bit Thursday, as though we are selling down into a dcl.  This is what I have been expecting all along.

SO I Drew this OCT 13th to show that  1. I am expecting a rally in the USD and a drop in Miners.  2. Do not buy & hold Miners, so we traded & sold leverage around day 7 for a quick trade.    This chart is not a price target, it is a visual aid.  I was showing possibly  2 daily cycles down.  One would drop into October ( we see that occurring right now),  then we might bounce with a final daily cycle, dipping down toward the ICL.  A really exceptional Buy Point.

IMPORTANT :  NEXT WEDNESDAY is a FED MTG.  We may bottom with a dcl as we near the FED MTG.  Then Miners would bounce or rally a bit,  and then roll over again into an ICL.   I will discuss this idea in the weekend report, you can see the idea below.

 

ENERGY STOCKS PERKING UP?

 

I Noticed that The XLE sat on the 200sma, and OIL has been above the $50 area, so I decided to take a look at a few of the OIL / Energy stocks.   Let’s take a look…

 

XLE –   The XLE rallied very strongly in Aug – Sept, paused and consolidated, and now it sat on the 200sma with the 50sma rising.  LATELY, these support areas temporarily break & recover  ( Run the stops, shake out), so I can’t really say whether that’ll happen here or not, or whether these are the next lows in place yet or not.  We should know soon enough, so let’s look at a few stocks  that look to possibly be bullish set ups.

 

ENERGY STOCKS ARE BUILDING CONSTRUCTIVE BASES

 

WLL – After the September run, it pulled back to the 50sma. I noticed that WLL took off today after a quick break below the 50sma.  I actually grabbed this even though it was up 10% already.  It looks to have good upside potential.  I Then mentioned some OIL / ENERGY STOCKS  in the comments section.

WTI #1 –  WTI had such an impressive run out of the lows, but a small pullback so far.  IT COULD drop to the 50sma, especially if the XLE  does do a ‘shake out’, but keep this on a ‘watch list’ for a reversal.

WTI #2 –  A watch list candidate , because the upside potential is great.  It has had a couple of nice runs, but cannot break out of this base yet, but when it does this could be a strong run.

WG #1– Another one that ran strongly in September was WG. I am watching this one too, and would have expected it to tag the 50sma, so it still might  ( or it may go sideways until the 50sma gets there).

WG  #2 –  It goes on a watch list because of this upside here potential too.  With a series of higher lows, if this breaks out higher the potential is great here too.

OAS–   Running from under $7 to $9+ on the first run in September, OAS has been consolidating those gains. It reached oversold and has remained above the 50sma. I was expecting a tag of the 50sma, and that could happen, but if it breaks the upper trend line, it is considered a buy.

OAS-  I guess it could break out & still tag the 50sma like this, but…

OAS–    If it breaks the upper trend line, it should eventually run to the 200sma, and that’s a nice trade. Earnings is due out on Nov 7th.

 

QEP –  The lows could be in for QEP, since their earnings are out and it Popped up 5% Thursday. This would look like a shake out of the 50% later and it may break back above it Friday.

SWN–  This reversal at the lows  ( Slight undercut)  looks like a stop run. The good news?  SWN released earning after hrs Thursday,  and it dropped and then shot up to $5.30, and ended up at $5.19, slightly higher than it was on this chart.

 

THE MBOT TRADE –

YES, I STILL OWN THIS. WE ARE GROWING OLD TOGETHER 🙂

 

MBOT  –  This was in yesterdays report at $1.11.  It looks like an inverse H&S and a break above the magenta down trend line should be bullish.  I was hoping that the blue area would hold as support.

 

MBOT– I discussed the MBOT overhead trend line in  the comments section yesterday, as MBOT dropped and reversed higher. Again, a break out is bullish.

MBOT–  reversed and ran from $1.08 to  close at $1.17.  Prior runs were 40% gains, but I didn’t sell them. I may sell 1/2 if we have another one, but…

MBOT-  I love the potential if this ever breaks and runs strongly.

 Enjoy Friday,  your last trading day of the week, and I will cover the General Markets, Precious Metals and Miners in greater detail in the weekend report.

 

~ALEX

 

AMZN, GOOGLE, AAPL , etc are obviously in bull runs.  Every now and then I am asked, ” AMZN is up $60 in after hrs. Why are you not putting your readers in AMZN?”    It is a fair question, and the answer is two fold.

1. I have to believe that every one of my readers knows companies like GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, FB, etc,  and they can enter any time they want. Also you can Send me an email and I will give you a low risk entry point.   More importantly is

2. I have put my readers in very Bullish stocks like that (  I put my readers in AAPL, MSFT, TTWO, etc when they were low risk entries a long time ago), and many cannot stand the consolidations and boring days, weeks , and Months.  Most sold MSFT and TTWO right away and they began to run very strongly, both have now doubled from my entry.   It is NOT as easy as it looks in hindsight.  Let me show you an example of this again…

 

AMZN–  IF I put you into AMZN last May at $930, it was $930 in September and this is the ride that you would have enjoyed. Please read the chart, and honestly… would that have been easy?

 

CLF–  CLF recently looked like it wanted to break out & run when it gapped higher and closed over the 50sma.  CLF is no longer looking bullish at all and has slowly sold off.  It has struggled with both the 50 & 200sma, and it is not on my list of possible buys unless it really shows some improvement.   See the chart below, this is a H&S break down in my opinion.