Thursday- October 12th

Wednesday had some action, let’s take a look…

QQQ –  I not only feel that we are getting late in the daily cycle, but there are other signs that this has been a good bull move( RSI), but that this also is approaching a top here.

 

USD–  The USD has dropped into a dcl as expected, and we are in the timing for a dcl.  Will the 50sma hold as support?

WTIC-  Oil is an oddity to me.  I feel that day 25 is too early for a dcl,  Oil didn’t reach normal oversold areas, and there are other reasons why I wouldn’t think that we have a dcl yet, BUT this does break the trend line from the peak on day 19 to the day it tagged the 50sma and reversed.  It also closed over the 10sma, so This looks like a right translated dcl.

 

SO I wanted to look and see if the OIL stocks looked bullish, and I did  find the same thing.  They do look like bullish setups, but some also look like they should have sold off a bit further here too.  let me show you a few stocks in that sector.

 

WLL –  A bullish wedge and a nice reversal.  (Notice that it didn’t reach the 50sma like I would have thought that it would. The stochastics also isnt fully oversold). If it breaks out higher, it is a buy however.

WPX–  Also not fully oversold, but we have a reversal. I would say that a break over the trend line & 10sma overhead could be a buy signal, but doesn’t this look like it needs to consolidate a bit more? We’ll see soon enough.

HOS – I sold my HOS on Tuesday near the highs, but there is no reason to do that, I just wanted to lock in gains at the top of the consolidation, in case it dropped to the bottom of that consolidation.  I expected OIL to dip further, so I wanted to lock in gains and maybe buy again under the 50sma.   It may not drop there. This chart remains bullish.  Wednesdays volume was solid, and I may re-enter if it breaks higher.

OAS – Another reversal, but again,  it came up a bit shy of the tag of the 50sma, but the stochastics did get oversold.  I wanted to own this for the next run higher, but I wanted to buy it around the 50 sma 🙂

WG –  Bull flag after a huge run,  this could mark a 1/2 way point in the run higher. A break out higher is usually the buy point with a stop under the flag.

DNR – Reversed on multiple support, this looks like a buy.

So many of the Energy stocks are looking interesting again.  I am keeping an eye on them.

 

 

GOLD & MINERS – Speaking of a bounce!

 

GOLD –  Gold sold off fast on Wednesday, and then surged higher even quicker.

 

This morning GOLD  ( only on day 3 ) looks set to run to the 1300 area again

 

I SOLD MY JNUG – AND I WILL SHOW YOU WHAT I WAS LOOKING AT. I POSTED THIS IN THE COMMENTS SECTION.THE MAIN REASON FOR MY SELL WAS THIS…

1. JNUG IS LEVERAGE

2. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DAY 8 AREA WHERE A PEAK COULD FORM

3. I WAS GOING OUT TO LUNCH AND SAW A MIDDAY FLAG FORM, AND IT BROKE DOWN. PRICE REBOUNDED & CLOSED HIGHER THAN MY SELL POINT. CRAZY!

 

JNUG #1–  (CLICK TO ENLARGE )  I was watching this pennant and actually expected it to break out higher, this was looking bullish, so I drew up this chart for the comments section in real time to show what I was watching for.  These patterns eventually break out and it doesn’t matter which way it breaks, it usually runs in that direction.  It broke down as I was writing.  I sold a portion of my JNUG at the top and sold the rest ( stopped out) on a break down around 19.65,  B-U-T…

 

 

JNUG #2 – End of the day.   You can see that it broke down sharply, based out, and…. RECOVERED.   That was impressive.  Both GDXJ & GDX did that, so lets see what it looks like on the daily chart of GDX.

 

 

GDX – Before I went to lunch, I warned NOT to short that drop as it sold off sharply, because I felt that this could be the shake out drop below the 10sma.  We needed more time to watch things play out.   I pointed out at 2:26 p.m. here, when I returned from lunch, that we did just have that shake out below the 50 & 10sma, and recovery.  Wow.

GDX – This is what that amazing drop & recovery looked like at the end of the day.  It hardly shows up as a big drop and if I was not in front of my computer, I may still be in my position if I just used a stop under the 200sma.   It was the break down below the 10sma and a recovery.  Day 8 is Thursday,  and we may get another peak on day 8.  NOT AN EASY RIDE. 🙂

 

 

 

GDX-  From Oct 10, the bigger picture.

 

 

EXK-  Even EXK  took a scary ride down & recovered.

 

So we are on day 8 today and it does look like that reversal wants to move GDX / GDXJ higher, but for me personally it is my own rule that it is too late to be buying on day 8, when I expect this to be a left translated daily cycle. I will not hesitate to take a position if I see something that changes the expectation  ( Geopolitical tensions causing action, etc)  because we do now have a completed triangle break out and back test. For now I will watch this play out and I have to still expect a drop into a dcl from a L.T. peak  .

 

This is our market wrap up, but I also want to review a few of the biotech set ups again and a trade or  two below .  We are still seeing action there.  Enjoy our Thursday trading!

 

~ALEX

 

INFI – this was the first buy set up that I pointed out, and I think we are going to get more upside now.  I added yesterday.  (next chart)

INFI – It broke out, back tested , and looks ready to move higher.   Some of these have been rockets  (MNKD), so it may be worth a small position if one had cash to invest.  A break above the 200sma would get very interesting in my opinion.  I captured this when I bought it at 3:15p.m., it actually closed a bit higher with much more volume.

 

APHB-  Short term this may be consolidating. Why?  It doesn’t look like much, but this ran from 70 cents to $1.35  (About 100%). It could drop to the 50sma, HOWEVER, this remains quite bullish looking…

APHB – When you look at the bigger picture., the potential is huge.

 

MBOT – I still own this one and it is just consolidating.  It may be building energy to break higher with strength.  Is a tag od the 50sma out of the question?  No, that could happen, but yesterdays selling was scooped back up into a reversal candle.

GNMX – I own this, and it has been tricky, but remains in an uptrend. My position is small and this is a good place to add a bit, but the light volume has kept me from adding so far.

SNAP –  I am torn here. I feel like the markets will drop into a dcl soon, but this set up is just about perfect.  It is a shake out & recovery that tagged the 50sma as support after dropping below it. I love this set up and wanted to buy it yesterday at $15, but I didn’t.  It did keep rising into the close as I debated taking a position. I wish that I took a position, price target is $17.50 and higher. It could go to the $20’s.

 

For those that just like to look at charts as a learning feature,   see  ORPN, KTOV, CRMD ( Some here own this one from my previous call), CASI, SRNE, and NURO.  These are what we are looking for when we discuss potential Biotech POPS.

NURO could be a buy here if it gets some follow through, but I hate the average volume.  It surged in volume yesterday, but I it may just be short cover.

 

So I wont be buying this one based on the normally low volume, but it is on my watch list just in case volume continues to improve with additional buying.  I might consider buying a pull back if it sets up properly down the road.  This was a 25% gain, and it could continue to explode upward.