October 10th – Falls Into Place

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We’ve only had 1 trading day since the weekend report, and things do seem to be falling into place as expected.  Let’s do a review…

 

This review will be brief, since the weekend report information and the action on Monday has not changed anything.

 

The QQQ ( NASDAQ) – We are late in the daily cycle, and I am expecting that the general Markets could fall into a dcl at any time. Many traders were waiting to buy this break out, and so they bought it last week.  Break outs often back test, but Mondays reversal could be the top for another reason. It was Day 34, which gives us a R.T. peak, but Short term the General Markets could begin to dip into a dcl.

 

WTIC – This chart from stockcharts is a bit inaccurate, but basically OIL sat on the 200sma.  I don’t think that the 200sma will hold price, because a DCL is due and this seems a bit early.  MAYBE we see Oil bounce and then do a quick shake out at the 50sma for a dcl, but that is just a guess.  See the weekend report for thoughts on Oil if needed.

 

GOLD – As expected, GOLD followed the Miners lead and put in a swing low. This would only be day 1, and yes,  Miners are on day 5.  Think about that for a minute.   Gold could top on day 8 and Miners could top on day 12.  THAT WOULD FALL ON THE SAME DAY, right?   Thinking Hard emoticon (Hand gesture emoticons)

  SO I AM TAKING THIS ONE DAY AT A TIME, I EXPECT THAT GOLD COULD TOP BY DAY 8-12 (  That is the average, not a rule),  AND THE PROJECTION ON THE CHART BELOW IS MORE OF A BULLISH ONE, BUT GOLD MAY STALL AT 1300 AND JUST STRUGGLE, GO SIDEWAYS, AND THEN ROLL OVER.   TIME WILL TELL.

GDX DAY 5 – A small gain for miners with Gold up about $10.  I’m hoping for a bit more upside before the peak in Gold comes in.  Raise your mental stop to the 50sma if you wish, but you may get shook out early.

GDXJ –  How about this count as a possible guide?  This is just a guess of possibilities.       By the way, GDXJ is up 1.1%, GDX was up .54% –  For the record,  GDXJ outperformed again,  and I have mentioned that due to my own personal research,  I expected this while others disagreed since GDXJ was re-balanced.

 

MINERS

BAA – I pointed out this bullish set up in BAA back on SEPT 26.  It was hugging or crawling along that 50sma, and that is bullish.  ‘Buy’ the break out,  the bullish crawl looked good.    As gold sold off last week, did BAA sell off?

BAA –  BAA did NOT sell off with GOLD all last week.  It broke out Monday and closed up 30%.  Some readers here told me they were watching this and caught the break out today.  Congrats!  That is a big 1 day gain for sure. So sell the pop and keep the 30%? Take a chance that it runs to the 200sma during this daily cycles start?  That is up to you.

 

EXK – Last week as GOLD & SILVER was selling off,  some Miners were NOT.  They resisted selling and I pointed that out with EXK.  Last Tuesday Oct 3, EXK tried to break out over the 50sma  (Like BAA just did). The next 2 days found that EXK did hold above the 50sma despite Gold & Silver selling off.  This was a buy.

FRIDAY On OCT 6th,  EXK did hold above the 50sma for a couple of days, so I mentioned that I bought it.  I expect a possible run to the 200sma, as I drew on this follow up  Oct 6th chart. Please read the chart.

Monday EXK continued higher. I have chosen Miners at or breaking above the 50sma, since they may be showing strength during Gold & Silvers sell off.  I have pointed out many here in past reports for you.

 

FSM – Another Silver stock, was FSM selling off last week with Gold & Silver? Not at all, and it broke above the 50sma Monday.  Look at the chart and see how FSM acted last week during Silvers sell off.

EGO – Held above the 50sma during Golds sell off and formed a bullish triangle that broke out yesterday.  This should continue higher, it has a price target of $2.70 or a tag of the 200sma.

CDE  Monday OCT 9 – I had pointed out CDE and it broke out higher and actually did sell down last Thursday, but it did not break support on a closing basis Friday. Monday it resumed the move higher.

So Monday didn’t change anything as we move forward. Some Miners were acting bullishly while Gold was selling off last week,  and they are moving higher now. I didn’t sell anything on Monday, and I plan on riding my positions as long as conditions remain favorable.  This update basically confirms what we have already been discussing in prior reports.  Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

 

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~ALEX

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The BIOTECH BASES

 

This is a new one to my watchlist

 

ARGS – This activity is what I look for in a base that I think has the potential to pop & break out & run.  WHEN it will do that remains to be seen, but this is pushing on that 50sma, and that is usually bullish when it breaks out..

 

MBOT – Yes, I am still in this and it still has great potential.  This one is difficult for many to ride, but I think that this chart is very encouraging. A run to the 200sma is more than 100% gains.

 

NAK – No I didn’t sell my position on Mondays POP & DROP.  I will explain 2 reasons why I didn’t.

Let’s discuss my NAK trade.

 

Please recall that I was buying NAK in the $1.30’s due to this bullish wedge.  I actually said at that time that if it runs to $2.00 ( which I expected), it would be about 50% gains.

 

NAK a break out & sideways move had NAK riding the 10sma, add again at $1.40.

 

Also add on that back test of the 50sma, and you have a good position in the $1.30 – $1.40.  If my position  gets above the 200sma,  my stop is the 200sma.

NAK   On Monday  NAK broke above $2.00 and fell back to $1.94.  Sell?  No, I bought at $1.35 average.    If I bought it at $1.30, $1.35, $1.40- the average gains on this is 50% at $2.00.  I am riding this and it still looks great to me, but take a look at that chart.  It is not straight up at all, but because we bought the base, it is easier to just hold our positions.

TGB LAST THURSDAY POPPED & DROPPED AS SEEN HERE  –  This is exactly what NAK did Monday, so was it a sell?  Compare this chart below of TGB Thursday  to the one above of NAK Monday   It is  VERY similar,  so what did TGB do Friday?

TGB –  This is TGB the following day after that Pop & Drop.  Maybe we get this in NAK Tuesday, maybe we don’t, but the chart did not turn bearish.

 

REMINDER:

 

 

JRJC WEEKLY – From late August,  this was in a report as breaking from a downtrend.  The 10 weekly ma is turning up here too.  The original buy was near $1.50 on a daily chart, breaking from a wedge.

JRJC – Last week I posted it as setting up again, and now the 50sma has turned upward too.

JRJC – If you don’t own this one yet, it is acting correctly and looks like it wants to break above that 200sma. Put it on a watch list and buy above the 200sma, or buy it here and use a stop under the 50sma ( But notice the 2 shake out days under the 50sma –  you may need loose stops).  It tried to break the 200sma yesterday and is pinching between the 50 & 200sma.

119 replies
  1. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Have not read the report yet but wanted to share this update:
    MUX: TORONTO, October 10, 2017 – McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) (“McEwen”) is please to announce that a critical step in the permitting process for its Gold Bar Project (“Gold Bar”) in Nevada has been achieved in line with the Company’s plans to begin mine development in the fourth quarter of this year.

    On October 6, 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published a Notice of Availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in the Federal Register. Following a regulated review period, a signed Record of Decision will be published, signifying the completion of the National Environmental Policy Act. (NEPA) process. The Record of Decision is expected in early November this year and development of Gold Bar is planned to begin upon receipt.

  2. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Thanks Alex. I’ve got AG along with EXK and it looks like they’re both headed to the 200 day and behaving very similarly. I have good gains already so I’m hoping I can hold a few more days. The only sign I can think of that would tell me to sell would be if gold and especially silver start breaking down. Is that what you would be looking at or is they’re something else that would tell you to sell?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Well, if I Look at past DCLs , I can see that not all moves out of dcls are straight up, so I try not to allow something like that shake me out. I am looking at a ‘time period’ to try to hold on to positions using cycles, but also each individual stock may act in a way that is specific to itself. NSRPF is a good example of that.

      A stock may Pop & get extended too quickly ( like BAA might) That one may experience profit taking by me, meaning I may sell 1/2 on that pop. ( I don’t own it, thats just an example). So I sell for different reasons. Right now , as I have said, this is expected to become a L.T. daily cycle and that should top or peak sooner than later. I’m just trying to ride my positions during the favorable time period

      • RonB
        RonB says:

        Alex I try to take your analysis and then look at it from different angles – just a game I play when there is no one around to play backgammon with. As I mentioned the other day I found quite a few PM miners that hit their DCL on Sept 21 – a total of 20 and that includes popular names like AU, BTG, DRD EXK GG NG NGD etc etc. I have often felt that GDXJ is a blunt tool for gauging the market and at times might even mask what is going on. So I see in these names that the cycle could in fact be quite mature at about 13 days. Of course others bottomed much later, so this little insight might be worth a toss into the garbage can.

  3. GOLDSA
    GOLDSA says:

    Thanks Alex for another day for an excellent report. I know you have clarified this in the past. But can you confirm if your day counts are calendar days or business working days ? Thanks so much

  4. Robert Peyser
    Robert Peyser says:

    ALEX re: Mining shares…. Alex your charts show Gold eventually heading down after a few days up … yet you seem very bullish near term for many of the miners… could you explain please and tell us whether we should consider selling our miners by the 12 th or 15th?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, I have tried to be very clear in my reports, I guess I will need to clarify again in tonights. Do not marry current positions, they may follow Gold down into a dcl after a shorter period of time.

      -I have been expecting a daily cycle low.
      -That is a bullish set up SHORT TERM, where 10 – 20 % gains could be made in Miners.
      -I do NOT expect a strong ongoing rally.
      As I have stated many times, I expect that this will be a left translated daily cycle,, they often top out in a week or 2, so start being cautious after a week or so. Sell, raise stops, sell 1/2, whatever makes one more comfortable

      Most miners will follow gold & sell off after gold bounces here, and last week ( Thursday in particular) , I had trouble getting people to even consider buying miners, they wanted to go short.
      Now Gold is bouncing and I usually will have a hard time getting people to let go after a bounce.

      I hope that helps

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Sure – and basically , The idea of buying Miners at a dcl that we expect to roll over after a week or two is strictly that you want to grab the opportunity to catch a bounce, maybe make 10 – 20% gains, & pocket some of the gains before Miners start to sell off.

          It is often hard to sell, because it is hard to know real time when they are reaching the top of the bounce.

          At this point, if we buy & hold through October, we could end up stopped out of every position within the month of October, some with losses that were at one time gains, and that would be frustrating.

          That said – I am also not trying to catch the very top of each bounce ( actually I am, but it is often not possible) 🙂 , I want to make some gains, and then hold on to them.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            I was hoping for another 6-8% GDX from here. Seems a bit far-fetched now. We had a higher low from Jul and Aug, so ideally you would like to match the previous top if not exceed. My original price target was about $26.25 GDX but don’t see that happening right now…

  5. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    This weekend, I did a longer-term look at the precious metals sector (gold futures, silver futures, HUI, XAU, GDX, GDXJ)
    fwiw, here’s the view:

    200-WEEK MA: all were above the MA except for Silver, which as of this a.m. is only a dime away;
    Importantly, for the first time since the last bull began in 2003, the 200-Wk MA has finally flattened before a possible upturn anytime

    200-DAY MA: All were above except for Silver & GDXJ – yesterday, GDXJ went above; and as of this a.m., Silver is now above. For all, the 200-Day MA flattened & has already turned up for the second time since the current bull early last year – possibly signaling that the next leg up has begun; and, if so, would pull up the 200-Week MA. As I understand it, that’s a signal for the really big investors to go long, and could help the long-term picture.

    My apologies to most here that are shorter-term traders, but for longer-term folks, I thought this might be interesting!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thx Cal
      Long term views are extremely helpful for the short term views in my opinion. Thats why my weekend report always steps back and shows us the bigger picture. I do that every weekend for a reason.

      For the shorter term trader, it shows you if you are trading against the tide or with the flow. Trades last longer in a bull market than a bear. Miners bounced in 2013 to 2014 at daily cycle lows, but they were short lived, swimming against the current. 🙂

  6. Dave
    Dave says:

    interesting open for miners… gold is up, and most of my miners are down… torn whether I use this as an opportunity to buy more.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I have enough for this late in the intermediate cycle. I’ll sell strength but no longer buying weakness personally. Had enough disappointment for Sep/Oct already.

  9. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    Wow, i’m glad to be on the sidelines here. Something smells of that skunk i refered to the other day. These miners just don’t want to play ball. Screwy!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      What really interests me is when I take a look at SILVER, SLV, USLV – really nice day

      And then I look at PAAS, CDE, AG , EXK, FSM, IAG – that could be a sign of things to come.

      • Rob
        Rob says:

        Yes, I kind of doubted your analysis. BIG MISTAKE…lol…miners hould not be red with gold up $8. Looks like you are correct. Nice job, bud!

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Yeah, today is a bit earlier that I expected for a peak in Miners though, I still expected a bit more upside for Metals time wise. It does look like this will be L.T. when all is said and done, I’m just hoping for one more push higher

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            The other upcoming event to think about is FOMC minutes tomorrow. That can have a Yellen-esque type move in gold.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Thanks for the updates. Was trying to figure what I missed with gold up and most miners flopping around neutral to down, I was pretty shocked as early as we are in daily cycle.

            Also noticed that crude is having a big day but all of the energy on my watchlist is up a couple of pennies. Similar disconnect and one that makes me feel uncomfortable.

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        I´m getting the sense it´s more just rotation and general lack of interest and follow through, because while thye can´t go higher today, when things looked terrible last week, they also didn´t take that opportunity to blow out to the downside, either. I still have what hasn´t been stopped out and no new changes, additions or sells, in the miners. they will all get back in sync with each other AND the metal, then it will be good trading.
        In short, in this type of action I don´t think we need to make decisions off price movement, since it´s just as likely to reverse the next day as follow through.

      • Hawaiifive0
        Hawaiifive0 says:

        I should have sold EXK and AG this morning on the bounce when I had big profits, but instead sold now for very little. If they bounce off the 50 day I may buy back. Wish I had a crystal ball. maybe in the future I’ll take profits sooner.

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        Im there with both of u guys…. My re-entry in IAG was glorious… but now its flat …. CF, work some magic

  21. Cason
    Cason says:

    Stopped out of AG in the whipsaw, clearly my trailing stop was too tight. I got it right at the Jul lows with a later add so healthy enough profit.

    Sold out of all LABU at 92 last week, only watching bio right now other than ongoing fascination with MBOT.

  22. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex, what do you think of CHK? I’ve been holding shares at a loss for a while, figure it will eventually make it’s way back up….today very disappointing move….not sure what’s going on with it…? It got downgraded to underperform so perhaps that is the main reason for the move…..

  23. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    ANTH…one of the few bios on my watch list that is up a little today….can’t remember who mentioned it here….has a super long base and “up” gap from $6.21 to $15 something…..I don’t have it yet but might get at some point

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I just locked in good profits on DRD – been riding tht from $3.20 – $3.30. Out at $3.81

      I liked the way it was consolidating, but if we are going to get a drop soon in Gold & Miners, I should take what I have off the table.

      The MACD on DRD is dropping as price goes sideways. Similar DOUBLE TOP look that I pointed out with ENPH

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’ve set limit sales in all of my miner positions at this point. Topping is a process, just like bottoming. Shouldn’t just fall apart, hoping for a spike to nominal new highs. I’ll use that to exit.

  28. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    ARLZ trying to move….3 month, 6 month, 1 year chart have flags….has consolidated past several days…maybe it’s not really flagging but a handle for the cup…?

  34. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Tough trading for me lately, not losing a lot, but winners that follow through have been hard to come by.

    • Dave
      Dave says:

      Really interesting watching the BOW/SOS numbers today. All day, GLD was about #10 for SOS, and none of the miners were BOW. When the dark pool trades (or whatever they are) posted at the close, it totally switched, and GLD dropped off the list, and GDXJ jumped to #3 (not with huge numbers, but the block trades were quite slanted toward the upticks).

      Sure, today felt like a kick in the shorts, especially with gold up, but I’m just not seeing enough to believe that we are rolling over quite yet. Today’s candle doesn’t look that much different than the one from 4 days ago (10/5), and I still don’t really see a trend line break. Caution is appropriate, but my stops on the ETFs haven’t tripped yet. Still thinking we get one leg higher. Time will tell though.

  40. Maria
    Maria says:

    here’s a musing …

    Ive said this before, but I find this happens all the time…. when looking at a previous wave, the corrective structures 2&4 “switch” in the following wave. ie. in the first impulse up “2” was steep and 4 was zigzag. In this current wave structure, it appears that 2 is a zigzag … soooo 4 may possibly be steep. its pretty cool to watch for …. interesssssting…..

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OzdYBIpr/

  41. Maria
    Maria says:

    dang.. Natty interesting… for a bounce anyway….

    ps. CF – did you take that pic of the Falls??? they are so beautiful… 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, Check out BLDP, FCEL, CBAK, PLUG –

      I mentioned them a week or 2 ago to Maria, I think. I always watch these run together, I usually am trading them, but been too busy with other things. AMRS often joins in, but is consolidating.

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