I have been bullish on Oil and Recently the XLE or OIL & ENERGY stocks. Well, nothing goes up forever, but a pullback can also be a buying opportunity.  I saw a fairly strong looking reversal in  UCO & USO midday yesterday and wrote in the comments that this could be a temporary topping candle.  That doesn’t mean I am suddenly bearish on energy stocks now, so let me just discuss UCO & WTIC first, and then I want to also discuss the Miners.

UCO – Due to the gap open and then the selling, we have what is seen as a bearish engulfing. Look where it happened.  Usually price dances or crawls around the 200sma as a resistance point, so I expect some sideways movement or a pullback at this resistance area.

WTIC– Look at Oil however. It already rode along the 200sma, and we have seen many reversal candles in Oil along this run, so we may just get a small pullback and even back test the 200sma.  We are seeing a ‘peak’ on day 19 so far, but this CAN peak even higher.  The set up remains bullish.

NOTE : To release this at 7:30 a.m. eastern, I do not have time to proof read for typos, so please excuse misspellings, etc.  Thx

With that said about Oil,  I have discussed many Oil stocks and I think that they can act as individual set ups as Oil dances around , pulls back , or even climbs a bit higher next week.   So I drew this chart when asked about SN.

SN –  SN is currently crawling along the 50sma, and for some crazy reason,  this is what price often does, as the bulls buy it and the bears take profit.  This is a small base and I think that it may be trying to form a channel higher.  SO I am NOT bearish on energy stocks, I just think that they are doing their own thing.

WG – As I have pointed out with WTI, WG, BBG, and others,  something really good can come from a long base under resistance like the 50sma 🙂

Miners

In yesterdays report, I mentioned that

1. We are waiting for a dcl , but due to the weekly chart showing a trend line break and a swing high formation,

2. I expect that we may not break to new highs next, but that we may begin to seek out an ICL first.

THAT IS NOT SAYING THAT I AM BEARISH ON MINERS NOW.   I see this set up as bullish, and you will see why in this report. What I am saying is that we also have expected an ICL in the USD.  I have said that an ICL in the USD might hinder Golds progress, so what we may see is not a devastating sell off, but more consolidation. I will do a QUICK review of what I will discuss in the weekend report in this regard.

GDX –  I am still expecting a dcl, and it could look like this. This chart is bullish in technical analysis.

IF THE GDX bounces out of a dcl, and I expect that it could be Left Translated, that simply means that it could ‘peak’ as early as day 8-12 (roughly).  This shows a bounce that takes us back to where we were 12 days ago, so this could be a good bounce.  We have to wait and see, but so far the pullback is normal.

I will discuss this more in the weekend report…

NOW LET’S LOOK AT MINERS. ARE THEY BEARISH AFTER THIS SELL OFF? NO THEY ARE NOT, AND SOME MAY ACT INDIVIDUALLY GOING FORWARD.

Let’s look at some MINERS and see if they look set up to move higher , or do they look bearish.

IAG – Yes it pulled back, but look how quickly a Miner can recover when the selling is done. What a bullish looking move IAG made yesterday. Notice that THE LOWS on IAG are actually the day after the FOMC meeting.

SA–  Another bullish set up that bottomed around the FOMC meeting. Notice that this is already near the Aug highs!

SSRM – This stock is already trying to break out to new highs since May 2017. This cannot be viewed as bearish.

EGO- EGO looks ready to break higher here, and the ‘sell off’ was mostly sideways.

NGD – Another Miner that bottomed last week, the Pops higher look stronger than the selling.  I think NGD wants to make a run with the next daily cycle.

NGD – Longer term, this is a nice 50% run higher out of the July ICL.

AUY – So far AUY has not broken last weeks lows.  I wanted to show how a 12 day run out of a DCL can unfold. This is not a prediction, it is an idea of how a set up like this can be profitable.

CDE –  I have repeatedly pointed out that CDE does not want to sell off,  it wants to consolidate at the 200sma, and then break out higher. I think CDE wants to break out higher, and could be bought with a stop under this consolidation.

So the large number of miners listed above should help you to see that I am NOT bearish Miners.  I never said that.   These are set up as bullish set ups.  If I did not use cycles here  (and I mentioned that I really haven’t been using cycles exclusively since the triangles formed),  I would simply be pointing these set ups out as…  ” These Miners are a buy after the recent healthy pullback.”

Copper stocks look to be bullishly setting up after a pull back too.   FCX, HBM, TGB, and hopefully WRN.

HBM –  Of course, I expected a tag of the 200sma, but buyers stepped in early.  It still may tag it, but I would start a position and add if it does.  What a great run from $4.50 to above $9+ in June to Sept, right?

TGB –  This was such a good run, I bought and owned it for longer periods of time recently.  It ran from $1.10 to $2+ and has done a healthy pullback. I expected a possible ‘shake out’ at the 50sma ,  so I didnt rebuy this yet,  but now I may have missed the lows of the pullback.  I think that TGB is a good buy & hold type of stock again.  Just use a reasonable stop.

CSTM –  This is another metal stock that I rode for a while.  It doesn’t look tricky, but it was making some pretty big swings each day and was a bit tough to hold. It also made a nice strong run from $6.50 to $11.50.

 I have several readers that took the trade in GV, when I recommended it as a possible company that would do well after the hurricane hit Florida.  They build infrastructure in Florida.  Let’s look at GV, I DO NOT think it is time to sell yet.

GV – Recommended here, I honestly think that this can run to former highs.  I rode part of the run last year and it wasn’t ‘straight up’, but it was a great buy & hold stock.

GV#1- This is it now, and it formed a triangle and looks to be breaking out. Someone could add if their position was small, it looks like it did not want to sell off, it just went sideways.   I would keep in mind that it COULD drop and tag the 200sma, but it doesn’t have to.

GV #2 –  Bigger picture, I expect that this could make it to $8+, and that is a large % gain.

GV#3 – The weekly shows the bullish runs that this stock can make.  This would be a 100% run from the August lows.   I would not sell this stock if you can ride out the bumps 🙂

ENJOY YOUR FRIDAY TRADING, THE WEEKEND REPORT WILL DISCUSS THE BIGGER PICTURES, AND THANKS FOR BEING HERE AT CHARTFREAK!

~ALEX