Sept 15- Friday Again

Just 1 more day of trading and then we have the weekend. Let’s take a look at a few things of interest …

USD –  The USD has a swing low in place ( unconfirmed, and the last one 2 weeks ago rolled over). We do see bullish divergence, but the proof would be in a close above 93 in my opinion.

WTIC – Nice follow through on day 9, Oil is breaking above resistance.

NATGAS  – Natgas reached resistance, and also has a bullish set up.

XLE – So now we have been looking at OIL & GAS STOCKS possibly bottoming, and the XLE has hardly paused out of the lows.

Gold 1 hr chart as of Thursday night – Gold spiked down to $1315 ( stop runs? ) and reversed higher on Thursday.

Gold – That doesn’t necessarily mean that the selling is finished, so we’ll keep an eye on things. The FOMC meeting is Wednesday and various scenarios could still  play out.

GDX – We had a reversal on Thursday, but zoom in and notice that we also had a reversal on Tuesday that went nowhere. I’m still holding various miners for now due to their bullish set up.

That said, Many Miners had reversals on Thursday and looked like they do want to go higher.  This is encouraging at the least.  As Gold has sold down this week, some Miners are actually still near recent highs or acting bullishly.  Lets just take a look at a couple.

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DRD –  This looks like a bull flag and DRD actually hit new recent highs on Thursday already. It may hit the 200sma as resistance and stall, but if it breaks above the 200sma, that would be quite Bullish.

HMY – This Miner also looks like it wants to attempt a break above the 200sma after a 1 week pause / crawl.  Sidenote: I will discuss the bottoming process in Energy using this chart later.

KDKGF – I never bought this stock because of the tiny volume in the past, but it has really showed some big moves higher since August and should be on your watch list.  The Canadian ticker KG has great volume and as you can see, this one has simply been trending higher all along.

CDE – This is from Wednesday, but CDE remains here above the 200sma, so we are encouraged by the Miners holding up well so far.

GSV –  GSV has only pulled back 50% of its last run higher, and it is only 7% off of recent highs. When Gold sold off $20 in the past, Miners would drop 7% each day.  Also the August run from $1.50 to $1.90 is 35%, not too shabby. This may tag that 50sma red line.

Let’s take a peak at some other areas of trading.

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This is a bullish ascending triangle

NAK – Have you been bored with NAK? This is actually looking like a bullish ascending triangle too.  It is a continuation pattern, and we have owned this from the July lows, it may be time to run higher again. If you didn’t own this,  the idea is to buy a break out and then sell at about $2.30.

WRN – I’m just showing WRN because I was recommending it in August as it crawled along that 50sma. So far it is still holding up, and I still own it.  It may just keep going sideways until Copper bounces again.

CSIQ –  Solars keep perking up and actually have been bullish for months  ( It has been very hard to ride the big swings however).  We did buy this break out & run in June, and it may be ready to go again.

FSLR– This looks to be breaking out too, after consolidating the recent run higher. Look at JASO or JKS as solars that have done well this year too.  SPWR also has done well, but it broke down this week.  It has now reversed Thursday and I hate to say it, but it may run higher now too. It shook many out with the recent drop.

So the wrap up for the final trading day is this –

Nothing has changed from our expectations for the week.  The General markets have moved higher, raising stops will lock in gains.   OIL & NATGAS remain Bullish, and oil & Gas stocks look to be bottoming and running higher.  Gold and the Miners have pulled back,  however not all Miners seem to be pulling back.  We are heading into the weekend and that will lead to a Fed week next week.  At this point, I have not done hardly any trading at all. I sold my leverage last Friday, I’m holding a few Miners that I bought.  I still own NAK, WRN, IPI, HOS, MBOT, etc, because I still like the set ups. I want to see what happens over the weekend and into next Monday and Tuesday as we appraoch Fed Wednesday.

I will discuss the bigger picture in the weekend report. Have a great Friday and enjoy your weekend 🙂

~ALEX

CHECK THIS OUT – I am being asked daily in some cases, ‘when do I sell my energy position? Can it go higher?  Is this good enough?’  The answer to me is:  OIL & NATGAS both look bullish and the XLE is ripping higher.  Oil & Energy stocks may be bottoming and coming out of the bottom.  All bottoms are different, as I have explained in the past.  SO let’s take a look at THAT idea.

ALL BOTTOMS LOOK DIFFERENT

SO let’s examine the bottoming process

SWN #1 – Could this just go sideways, bouncing around back testing off of the 50sma? Yes.

SWN #2 – Could that same stock  bull flag and just rip higher like the XLE is?  Yes.

SWN #3 – Could that same stock form an inverse H&S and tag the 50sma on a back test, then bounce & drop back below it ( Shake out), making it almost impossible to hold on to? And THEN run higher?  Yes.

WTI –  Look at how WTI is moving out of the lows so far, but who knew that this would do this?

Do you get the point?  I Can think of 10 different ways that each and every one of these could move forward, but I CANNOT know for sure.  So what you have to do is be resolved to have a plan when you enter the trade.

Options could be

1. BUY IT, SET A STOP, ALLOW IT TO GO HIGHER OR STOP YOU OUT. THAT MEANS JUST RIDE IT WITH A STOP IN PLACE.

2. BUY IT, RAISE YOUR STOP AS IT GOES HIGHER, TAKE PROFIT IF IT DROPS TO ‘BACK TEST’

3. BUY IT – SELL THE FIRST POP HIGHER AS A FAST TRADE TO LOCK IN GAINS

4. ETC

Look again at HMY, but this time look at the lows this June – July– That was not an easy ride off of the lows, and it was not easy through July.  I told everyone that I thought that we saw an ICL in July , so buying Miners would be a good idea.   I could not tell you every single wiggle that each would have at the bottom, right?   SO you buy the lows and try to ride it with a stop, to protect funds.  Today you’d be happy if you caught HMY at $1.40 & just rode the wiggles to that 200sma at $2.20.

DRD AUGUST 28 –  It was the same exact thing with DRD Bottoming.  Those lows were NOT easy to ride this summer, since DRD was lagging at the lows, but it was building a nice base. We bought this break out ( I bought it earlier and added here with the sign of strength that followed).

So many waited until DRD was riding the 50sma more or less, and maybe some ought to do that with the Energy stocks – waiting for the back test of the 50sma may be a safer entry for some here.  Start a watch list and buy the back test of the 50sma, use a loose stop and try to let it ride.