Wednesday Aug 16 – Progress

/138 Comments/in /by

As time moves forward, we are seeing progress in various areas of the market. Today at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, the Fed Minutes are released and that often can affect the markets too, so  let’s take a look at where things stand…

 

SPX – No change from yesterdays report & expectation at this point.

 

 

WTIC – Yesterday with this chart, I said that Oil is well along in the timing to seek out a dcl on day 36. We had a swing high in place with Mondays drop.

WTIC –  Day 37.  With a small trading range on Tuesday, it lowers the parameters for a dcl on Wednesday day 38  ( or day 1?), but I am thinking that we could still drop to the 50sma.  oil is not  exactly oversold yet.  Wednesday is the OIL inventory report, and THAT may give us our next clue. Look for a possible Pop or Drop tomorrow.  And…

The XLE , OIH, XOP all looked like this on Tuesday too.  This is a possible bottoming candle, so we’ll see what Wednesday brings.  We may be seeing a dcl form in this OIL & ENERGY sector.

 

 

FED MINUTES ARE RELEASED AT 2 P.M. EASTERN TODAY – USUALLY GOLD REACTS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER

 

 

GOLD –

GOLD –  I have already discussed different ways of drawing this trend line that makes me wonder whether or not we broke a trend line, to give us a dcl at day 21. This would be showing that we did not break the trend line and a DCL is ahead.

 

GOLD –  This trend line shows a break and Possible DCL at day 21.   It really doesn’t matter that much at this point, it remains bullish either way. The ICL really seems to have occurred in early July, and we are on either Day 27 heading into a dcl, or day 6 of a new daily cycle.

GOLD SUPPORT–  Gold sold off roughly $10 on Monday & $10 on Tuesday,  so are we in a support zone here?  It appears that we are, we’ll see if Gold holds off from selling down another $10 on Wednesday, especially with the Fed minutes being released.

 

GDX – Possible reversal candle above the 50sma, we may be seeing the sellers drying up.

GDXJ – GDXJ had what could be a reversal candle too,  a gravestone doji type of candle. They can appear when sellers & buyers struggle to gain control.  That said, …

BASICALLY-  We are still just inside of that triangle as time goes on.

The Larger Triangle.

 

In yesterdays report I showed ‘Signs Of life’, where I pointed out that with Gold down $10 on Monday,  it was encouraging to see different Miners resisting the selling.   I want to do that again here.  Why?  Because this builds confidence in the readers that a bullishness is still in this sector, even with the selling off of Gold this week.

 

So, with Gold down $10 both Monday & $10 Tuesday, you would expect this to be a dismal start to the week in Miners.

 

FFMGF – The 3 year chart for FFMGF is bullish and the last couple of days, with Gold selling off, has been bullish too.  It seems that the lows are in place as of May, and this consolidation is probably going to break out upside very soon. You could start a position here and add on a drop or a break out above the 200sma.

KLGDF –  What a gorgeous, Bullish chart since May.  This is actually switching to the NYSE today, and I would have to think that that move is Bullish.  It exposes this company to investors that cannot buy OTC stocks.  Funds and bigger money may keep this uptrend going.  The new  ticker will be KL.

 

HMY – 2 steady days of selling in Gold did not crush this little miner. It reversed on the 50sma on Tuesday so far.

 

SA – 2 days of selling in Gold and SA has ignored it completely.  These are the Miners that may be telling you something.   Something like,  ” They like me and Smart Money may be accumulating me during Golds sell off“.   If these are rising during a Gold $10 drop each day,  what will they do when Gold is rising $15 / day?

 

TRX – I couldn’t find any news, but TRX  went higher on Mondays sell off, and also Popped around 18% at one point on Tuesday.  Again, Gold was down Monday & Tuesday, so keep your eyes on this when Gold is rising, it might offer a nice ride higher then too.

So we have Fed Minutes today, and maybe we will get a reversal in Gold after seeing it  sell off on Monday and Tuesday?  Some Miners seem to be ignoring the selling anyway, and that is a positive sign in a rather negative environment. In my opinion, these can be ‘buy’ candidates, or at least positive signs that when the selling is down, we are going to have another leg higher. The Big Picture charts seem to indicate that after breaking from these triangles, Miners may trend higher for months.  Good times seem to be just ahead.  Enjoy your Wednesday trading.

 

~ALEX

 

FYI- I still like TGB, and think that it is a very bullish set up, however…

TGB WEEKLY –  I drew this for the weekend report, and wanted to point out that it is possible ( Not a guarantee obviously), that TGB could stall and form a handle that dips down here for weeks, before resuming its journey higher.  I sold my TGB to collect a nice profit near $1.60.  I pictured that it could drop to the $1.35 area. I still love this chart longer term and may re-enter,  but for now I wanted to free up some more money for Miners,  and lock in profits just in case this goes sideways for a few weeks.  ( I am still holing my IPI)

 

138 replies
  1. Evan
    Evan says:

    thanks for a great report Alex. I’ve owned KL on a Canadian market since March of last year. Buy and hold and forget on that one. Did not know though that it was going NYSE today so that’s helpful. Besides all the great charts and trading ideas, I love the bits of info shared by you and the community here. I know someone mentioned Novo resources the other day (I think Maria), I bought this last month, strictly speculative as I started to hear rumours, and then added twice (again in Canada – NVO.V, in the US it’s OTC NSRPF I believe) and it’s taking a moonshot based on exploration in Australia. Really curious what your thoughts are on a chart that looks like that. Sorry on my phone so I can’t post the chart…

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Evan,

      Well, that chart is obviously great & euphoric recently, and long term it is probably very bullish. It has been an awesome run for those owning it.

      I hate to say it, but charts like that are usually unsustainable. It would be great if it just put on a bull flag and went sideways, but more often than not they run out of buyers when they get too overdone to the upside, and then when people start the profit taking, others start bailing out too, hoping to lock in gains before they shrink away. it can crash down rather quickly, but how far down is unknown.

      It is not predictable as to how far it can go higher or when this future drop might happen, so there isnt much more that I can say about it. When I look at that chart, it is one of extreme proportions… I would expect a rather sharp reverse reaction at some time though.

      • Evan
        Evan says:

        Great thanks Alex. It is crazy. There’s a huge dynamic and driving it is the amount of speculation of future finds and it’s hard to tell how much more this is going to run on the well timed news releases and speculation. A couple of analysts are talking that it might be on the same sort of scale as the Wits in South Africa – biggest gold producing region historically apparently. So this one is really hard to figure. I’m up quite a bit on it on it so I’ll be employing a loose trailing stop and keep an eye on it.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          If it was a huge position it would be easier to just lock in some gains ( like the original investment since it is up 100’s of %), and then just let the rest ride , set it & forget it. If it is a smaller position, it is much tougher to know how to get optimal returns. best wishes, it is a great trade at this point!

  2. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    TRX, Good morning all. I read ( sorry can’t recall where ) that Jim Sinclair wrote that the Buckreef gold project is not effected by new Tanzanian laws. I took a full position on yesterdays dip.. Sinclair explained the situation very clearly..

  4. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Should we be worried about Cason? He was supposed to be around all day yesterday, and never posted again, not even at night like he usually does. Cason, you around?

    • RonB
      RonB says:

      holy, those shake outs always look so bad when in reality it might be just what the dr. ordered
      Are you in?

      • Maria
        Maria says:

        net yet…. it’s one on top of my list tho…i need confirmation b4 i go ….. 😉
        pretty cool tho right?

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            i dont keep records on those …sorry. I mean how often do measured moves work? – Some folks draw lines for measured moves – i just use the ACTUAL candles and watch in amazement. but, i do watch them because they do keep count of that previous ‘cycle’ / “measured move” if you will, If the pattern is a “1” it “might” equal a “5” move — but not necessarily — so i just watch for curiosity –

            presumably we are at the precipice of a “3rd” wave in miners – which are GENERALLY 1.61% of wave 1 .. sooooo that move in AG … SHOULD be much larger -but it does not have to be – it can be shorter and fool everyone — as long as wave 5 is shorter than 3 it will work.
            Confusing right … lol that’s why I don’t trust — or presume anything — i just watch … if they fail – i erase it quickly from the magic board in my mind ……. 😉

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I dont want to jinx it 15 minutes into the day, but I am seeing a pattern on NAK that could become bullish if it breaks higher ( And it looks like it might). I would love to see NAK move above that 50sma.

  11. RAY
    RAY says:

    hi Evan / Canadian golddiggers : )

    look at Capstone – CS seems to be broken and volume looks to be good so far

  12. Evan
    Evan says:

    Sorry if this is a bit off base. Just curious: Is anyone in our community here into cryptocurrencies? I ask from a chart perspective, I’ve been looking at them since last week. Holy volatility.

  13. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    I just want to pop in and say that TQQQ looks great. Kudos to those who bot last Friday when I pointed out that it was a “buy” on my 15 min chart. For me, as usual, I waited until Monday to confirm the up trend. As I have posted previously, I always miss buying the “bottom.” I bot heavy on Monday and Tuesday and even added a little more today. I’m very bullish on stocks and QQQ/TQQQ in particular over the medium to long term so I want to ride TQQQ as long as possible. As you have seen recently, those one day slam downs can be hard to handle, but you have to be ready to get back on the horse because the dips don’t last long in this bull market. Sorry I did not post my trades here in real time because I wanted to keep my promise of last week not to post too much in the comments section.

    FYI I’m still holding some NUGT, but I scaled way back a couple days ago, currently holding only about 20% of the position I had at the end of last week.

    Good trading to all!

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Thanks for the update Steve. I think the USdollar DXY looks strong on the hourly chart. Gold and GDX looks to be starting to move to a buy.

    • Steve Tytler
      Steve Tytler says:

      FYI … I just saw this on SeekingAlpha.com:

      “Risk appetite appears fully back on after a shaky few days as investors plowed $1.48B into the the $50B PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) yesterday – the fourth-largest daily inflow in the last five years.”

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        It would make me wonder ….if that was the 4th largest inflow in the last 5 years, why didn’t it really push the QQQ higher yesterday? Distribution?

        • Steve Tytler
          Steve Tytler says:

          Good point! I have a tight leash on TQQQ until it proves itself. Also, I don’t know where that number comes from since I don’t show unusual volume on my trading platform for QQQ. It shows yesterday was a below average volume day. Now I wish I had not cut back on my NUGT. LOL!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I think that a close over the over head trend line would be bullish, but I’m actually seeing more consolidation & even possible downside until that happens. A solid break out after the minutes would be encouraging, but there are a couple of things that I dont like about the charts at this point.

            1 is the gap

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            I agree, that’s why I’m keeping a close eye on this. TQQQ could very well roll over and drop again like it did on June 26-27. On the other hand, the gap from July 11-12 never filled (so far). I will bail out around break-even if it does not go my way. Again, I probably should have maintained “radio silence” on here since my posts tend to generate a lot more questions and comments. LOL

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Well, maybe it just feels that way? I think that everyones posts generate comments & questions when they are recommending a trade.
            It’s just that you notice it more when you are recommending something & people want to know the details of & ask questions. 🙂

            I certainly never said anything about your commenting or anyone elses

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            I just feel “responsible” if I mention TQQQ and people buy it because of my posts, so I am better off keeping quiet and let them follow YOU because you are “The Master.” I don’t want people to lose money base on my trades, so I will go back to my cave. 🙂

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I honestly think that they appreciate your posts, because I only usually cover it in the report.
            You cover it when you buy, and if someone follows, that is pretty much up to them to decide to do that or not. I would say that everyone here feels responsible for their own trades, and you have even said that in the past.

            You’re Fine Steve. And I post trade ideas that get me stopped out too, it is impossible not to run into that from time to time, even in raging bull markets 😉

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            UPDATE: I have not been happy with TQQQ’s response to the Fed minutes today, I was expecting the up trend to continue. I will watch how it closes, but I may sell and/or stop out of half of my position by EOD. I coulda/shoulda bot the bounce last Friday when I posted my buy signal here so I’d have a lower avg cost, I like to buy BEFORE the gap up like I did last month. My experience is that if TQQQ is going to rally it gets going pretty quick. Trading sideways for a couple days after the big pop on Monday is a warning sign and I’m not willing to take a draw down. As I have posted previously, preservation of capital is very important to me. Avoiding losing money is the key to long term success, I don’t want to ride a losing trade down.

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            EOD Update: I decided to hold all of my TQQQ overnight. It is still bullish on my daily chart, I would have liked to see a stronger finish to the day, but will hold for now. I have a very tight stop so a gap down tomorrow could hurt, hope it does not break today’s LOD.

        • Dom
          Dom says:

          I agree, internals are getting weaker here, more new lows, less stocks advancing, less stocks above their 50 DAY MA. And we all now about retail, is it really AMZN killing them or is there more. Listen to DKS earnings call. They have pricing pressure, dare to say deflation. Stock was down 20% in one day.

  18. Rob
    Rob says:

    Has Primero Mining declared bankruptcy or something? There was so much promise when they went public a few years ago.

  19. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Glad to see Alex covering FFMGF now too, it´s been kicking butt lately and about to challenge the 200 day MA to the upside again. This one just came out before the big 2016 miner rally and did well then, so it will be interesting to see what it can do next time the miners get into gear.

    I have been adding to MUX holdings today, not going crazy but taking in some more for the long haul, 6-10 months hold at least.

    I was looking at a junior miner etf to take the place of GDXJ now that it is no longer chock full o juniors, and GOEX caught my eye. If it could go back to the 2011 highs, it would be 7x my money (assuming my monthly chart is right, bc I don´t recall this fund being around back then), but it has volume that would make it difficult to trade in and out of large positions.

  23. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Trump’s disbanding his economic policy forum may have been the impetus for gold and relate to shoot up.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I like it so far. IAG looks very pretty from Big pic to short term consolidation break out.

      Even the uglier juniors seem to be responding well. EXK, AG, MUX, FSM moving off of their lows.
      This could be what GDXJ needs, some Junior movement. I just hope it continues into the 4 o’clock hr
      and through tomorrow 🙂

  28. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Alex. If we’re not in yet and thew DCL was on day 26. I’m trying to get in to NUGT or JNUG. What would you look for as an entry point? Or do we just have to chase.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It might depend on who you are, for some it is a buy here. We are talking about 3x Etfs, so THIS IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. : ) My disclaimer .

      It is a high risk trade, but buying right before a break out of the triangle could also be buying the start of a nice run higher. In other words, it feels like chasing here, but today GDX is moving off of support at the 50sma. If it breaks this triangle, shorts could cover & Buyers seeing that break out may get a BUY signal. The swings in the 3x etf at this point are a bit tough though. If it fails to break out, it could drop sharply

      I added yesterday and I even added at $16.90 today pre-minutes. It is now $18. Tomorrow it could be $20- $22 if the triangle breaks out or it could be $15- $16 if it just drops tomorrow into a dcl. . THAT is the risk of 3x etf.

      Personally, I am looking at many individual Miners to help me gauge where we might be. I see many Miners breaking out and have put them in the reports to bolster confidence that Miners are acting correctly, even when Gold dropped $10 & $10 …so I went long & Added

  30. RonB
    RonB says:

    I have a good load of miners, but I’m not watering down with add on buys here so as to protect if there is a pull-back. Been there done that way too many times. I was thinking of adding to NUGT but instead if it is looking good in the pre-market tomorrow I might take a position in JUNG and then watch it like a hawk

  34. Nord
    Nord says:

    Today was the exact anniversary date of the 2007 trend-change occured. We are also in the timing band of completing the 4 year consolidation cycle. I think this current structure has a lot in common with the 2007.
    Timing of entries become of less importance early in the cycle since the goldbull makes up for wrong entries fast in the beginning, so worrying about gapfills etc is of less importance 🙂
    Now, we need some continuation.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33bb8440fcd18caed58323a2c3274d8d807863867602206a7cc20a8845dc70f3.png

  35. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    For people like me who were under-invested in the miners today (after I chickened out and sold most of my NUGT 2 days ago) the good news is that a big UP day like is typically followed by a down day the next day, or at least a quick dip and recovery. Usually price will fall to roughly the middle of the previous day’s candle. Some of you may recall that after the big pop in JNUG on July 26 I posted during the pre-market the next day (July 27) that miners looked like they were dropping and I put in a target buy price near the mid point of the previous day and it hit. So think about that for tomorrow.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Possible- using th QQQ, there is a trend line overhead that rejected QQQ yesterday, that line can be drawn along the bottom of TZA or SQQQ & used as a stop. OR Use the trend line break overhead for QQQ as a stop for TZA SQQQ

  39. Cason
    Cason says:

    Hoping for some good action today! I’ll be back near the closing bell. Pullback not shaping up yet but it’s still early!

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