Monday Morning Coffee

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I wanted to put out an extra report this morning to discuss Miners a bit more…

 

 

EDIT:  The report was written last night, but as I start to proof read it this morning, Gold is down about $10.  As for the Miners going forward? We will be seeing if these gaps fill and if the 50sma holds.   That should help us to know if we just had a dcl near the 50sma and this is day 4, or is this day 26 today of the first daily cycle , dropping into a dcl now.  Is this just a Quick dip or multi day pullback coming up?    Either way, we have an ICL behind us in July and it is bullish longer term.

 

Let’s discuss Miners

 

GDX – So this could be day 3 of a new daily cycle with an inverse H&S pattern, or day 25 peak. Both are Bullish, since a peak on day 25 should lead to a right translated daily cycle.  I wanted to point out a possible drop that could be coming our way too…

This is a view of a possible GDX drop to fill the gaps,   so that if it happens, it won’t throw anyone off. EVEN IF THIS WASN’T A DCL,  we would be on day 25 and this could be a dip into the dcl.  Either way,  we could get a buying opportunity near the 50sma as the gaps fill, but it does depend on how this pulls back.   Let’s look at Miners…

 

I WANT TO SHOW YOU POSSIBLE BOTTOMING ACTION FIRST

 

EGI –  This seems to be at a bottom, reversing at the 50 & 200sma.  Will it hold during a pull back, or might it do a shake out? I am watching EGI.

 

MUX WEEKLY – Look at that reversal off of the 200ma.   When I see this, it looks like we did just see a dcl, and this could be  THE LOWS for MUX, so I will be watching Mux going forward.  We could see a shake out  ( that would be a buy)  or we could see this support hold.

VGZ –  This is a very similar reversal to MUX, isn’t it?  If many of the juniors are starting to Bottom, GDXJ could put in some nice gains when they finally begin to move higher.

KLDX –  Post earnings, another solid reversal at the 200ma.  I will be watching KLDX this week.

 

I WANT TO POINT OUT EVEN SAFER INVESTMENTS

 

The following 3 companies have already released their earnings, and these charts are very bullish to me. They have been making higher lows and higher highs, they are solid long term investments for the long term buyer( Chris?), and a pull back might offer a nice low risk entry before they break out & run..   They all look like cup & Handle consolidations and have been trending higher since the Dec lows.

 

FNV WEEKLY–  Breaking out after their earnings release. This is an uptrend since the Dec 2016 lows and formed a cup & handle.  I am not saying that it just goes straight up from here, but it has been bullish throughout the entire consolidations phase.

IAG WEEKLY –  Earnings are out and this is a bullish set up.  Does it go straight up from here? I can’t say, but this should be a safer BUY & HOLD

RGLD WEEKLY –  Another bullish chart making higher lows and higher highs.  This should also be a nice BUY & HOLD for the longer term investor.

 

AFTER EARNINGS BULLISH SURPRISES

 

PAAS WEEKLY –  PAAS shot up on Thursday and stalled on Friday.

SSRM – SSRM shot up on Thursday ( Shown here) and stalled on Friday too. These look like bullish earnings surprises, so they go on the watch list and possibly be scooped up on a pull back.

 

NEAR LOWS –  UPSIDE POTENTIAL

 

HMY –  I pointed this out last week ( Aug 10) , and it closed even higher of Friday, for our WEEKLY CHART.  The daily chart could drop back to the 50sma as a possible buy area.

 

DRD –  This one too,  near the lows and upside potential looks great once this train gets rolling.

 

CDE WEEKLY –  Sitting at THE LOWS of this consolidation, I just dont think that this will be here if Gold & SILVER break out and start running quickly higher.

 

 The long ongoing triangle consolidation and set ups in Gold & Silver look very bullish for the future. I wanted to review various types of set ups here, and you can decide which ones appeal to you.  I will continue to watch this sector as things unfold, and I will continue to present ideas like the ones seen here as they ‘set up’ as buying opportunities.   Today I just wanted to show you that we have some Miners that have been acting bullishly all along, others are springing up after earnings, and some are still at their lows.  With most of the earnings behind us, many Miners seem to be bottoming.

 With Gold pulling back here,  GDX may just fill a gap or two, so we can watch and see if  lower risk set ups form as things unfold.  Let’s see what kind of a pull back we get in the precious metals today and see how the Miners react under pressure.

  Enjoy your Monday!

 

~ALEX

 

SID –  As a sidenote, I took a chance and bought this low risk set up on Friday.  It filled the gap and reversed at support, so my stop is below Fridays lows (Tight stop).  IT is actually still a bit overbought, so I will need to keep an eye on this, but it was a small string of higher lows, higher highs.

83 replies
    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      At this point, it’s hard to tell for me ( but better safe than sorry for you – if you got out at break even rather than risk a loss) .
      I’m watching GDX close a gap and remain above the 10sma so far, so it could go either way at this point.

  2. RonB
    RonB says:

    I’m back into KL.TO – on my watch list it is one of the strongest. They are authorized to buy back 10% of the shares and my rather uneducated guess is they are using the opportunity to support the stock and it is just creeping away from me with no overhead to cause problems. My stop is way back now and I think I will just put it aside and let it ride for the duration.

  3. marinho
    marinho says:

    lots of great juniors, but as Alex pointed out FNV, RGLD, IAG and PAAS and SSRM with positive earnings surprises last week

  4. Nord
    Nord says:

    We’re in bullmode now. BTFD applies 🙂 Lol. Keeping core position and buying dips and selling resistance in futures.

  5. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    So many nice choices! Nice mention on VJET on Fri. I took it. It’s up! But ER is this afternoon 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Oh boy – you are right, I forgot that they release today. Just so you know, I saw DDD get killed on their earnings release.

      I saw VJET holding the 50sma, and that is good, but earnings is that wild card that adds risk.

  6. Nord
    Nord says:

    Imho there is no logic in that we haven’t tested the 1296 area before the cycle tops when UJ breaks its trendline and produces a failed cycle.

  8. Nord
    Nord says:

    GDXJ is behaving nicely. Went back to test breakout-zone and bounced nicely. Nothing is yet wrong with the setup. Im not surprised if we close green lol. Thats a sign of a good well-behaving bull.

  10. Cason
    Cason says:

    Middle of last week I stated that it was just about time to take starter positions in a number of miners as bottoming seemed nigh and downside was limited. But at that point we also had the warning that some of these could just still break down. Of course I keep commenting at 4AM to east Coast folks so no one ever sees it. Anyway, I saw this weekend as the “all clear” to start accumulating individual miners for a buy n’ hold for a bit. Still not that comfortable for high leverage right now, but I’m actively shopping.

    Which miners are people buying here?

    • Nord
      Nord says:

      Overshoot by 7 dollars, but left a red candle. Let’s see if we can get a temporary halt to the bitcoinmadness.

  12. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Alex, I´m with ya on the miners program, and you have been doing a find job of not being overly bullish during this time while they slowly show their hand, which looks higher. I´m still a 31% invested, will bring that up over the next two weeks if we hold or are higher by the end of the month.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Ralph,

      I have been bullish on the sector as a whole , since I felt that an ICL was in place as of July, but earnings were killing some of these individual Miners, breaking them down to new lows, and that definitely needed to have us remain cautious.
      Also timing for a drop into a dcl was coming into play. So the question was ( and maybe still is) was that a semi early DCL last week with a swing last Wednesday? Or is it still ahead? Even if it was still ahead – downside may be limited.

      That said, now that most of the earnings have passed, we can even see individual Miners like SSRM & PAAS bursting upside after earnings, so that definitely adds bullishness to at least some of the miners and makes adding to a position reasonable on some of these.

      I still have to recommend a BASKET, because no Miner alone is deemed safe, the dreaded Public offering or natural disaster can affect the price going forward. : )

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        Yes, it seems they are slowly resolving ot the upside. Since this seems to be a longer term setup, maybe a resumption of the 2016 bull, I won´t be surprised if we get a few more conflicting signals before any sharp rally starts. I think this will give me a few more weeks to add, and I am fine with adding at higher prices too, as long as they don´t take off immediately.
        You´ve really played it just right.
        Are the copper miners coming back onto your buy screen (if they ever left)? I see IVPAF and WRN coming close to oversold short term on my charts.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I’ve been watching a couple of Copper stocks.

          WRN sits right on the 200sma, and HBM did a gap fill, but I thought that it might drop and tag the 50 & 200sma moving closely together down there. It may not with todays reversal.

  13. Cason
    Cason says:

    Man, if I could just get rid of this turd, NAK, I’d have even more money avail for some of these miners!!

  14. MM
    MM says:

    Not going to be popular today. So far so good on the DUST trade. Keeping a very tight leash on it though. I have rarely seen my inbox and twitter feed more full of bullish gold commentary over the weekend. All looking at the same technical breakout. I am a bull too – but feel the need to be contrarian here. Don’t like the news driven technical picture and afraid of a swift pull back if/when tensions subside. Love the intermediate picture though for miners and looking for the chance to load up…..we’ll see. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40a5a1525add65fb76b648cb6c16c6a2a1f8e4d6c8f9c0720c2677599f5fc6ad.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3af41629666545096b891175f90e2b4ad98fa006c7c4628320240848986b2f9f.png

  16. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    I don’t know much about all the bitcoin craze…..but BITCF is traded OTC – maybe a way to get involved with the bitcoin arena without directly buying bitcoin..?…..also SING…a payment platform company related to cannabis…..evidently has bought weedcoin – seems the cannabis folks are looking into alternative payment ideas since it is hard to deal directly with banks, etc. for your cannabis transactions…have just started reading up on all this so I don’t understand it all yet…..IF the cannabis industry actually does get to take off and grow the way some think it will…..and IF alternative payment methods become more popular, then…who knows?

  18. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    CGIX is finally starting to move higher, and I have been watching that one on the weekly chart.

    However: Earnings after the bell today, so I am staying away for safety sake.

  19. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Just talking out loud here, not recommending a ‘buy’, but it is encouraging to see that AUMN had earnings last week, and that was the recent low.
    Now with Gold selling off, it is up 6%

    It is still under important moving averages, so it has some work to do, but ‘the widow-maker’ is up 6% with earnings released, while Gold is down $7

  20. RonB
    RonB says:

    Alex would you consider this potentially right translated for oil after today’s confirming smack down?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      interesting, I looked at Oil earlier and it was green. Sharp selling intraday.

      Yes potentially R.T. – Oil cycles can be long so it is never easy to tell until the selling finished up.

  23. Cason
    Cason says:

    And that’s why I’m only scaling in…just in case we backtest and DCL is still ahead of us. Plenty of powder left for the backtest scenario!

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