July 5th – Gradual Change

With only 1/2 day trading on Monday, did anything really significantly change for todays report? Nothing has changed from my expectations, but we did see some decent moves, and they are worth discussing, so lets begin…

 

DJIA –  This was in the weekend report. An eventual drop to the 50sma or more.

The NASDAQ was what was really looking rather toppy. We have not seen the kind of deep selling that I would be expecting now  ( ICL).

 

SO I used this chart in the weekend report to point out 1 of 2  possible drops, and I pointed out what looked like possible ‘distribution’  volume at the highs.

NASDAQ –  We did see another day of losing the 50sma on Monday, so we’ll see if the rest of the week delivers follow through.

 

WTIC – Oil has acted as expected,  coming out of the recent lows…

 

On June 29 I pointed out that it appears that we have an ICL in place,  but I have been puzzled by the Oil & Energy stocks lack luster performance.

 

XLE last Friday for example.  Where is the conviction?

 

XLE –  Monday we saw a nice burst higher and the reason that I find it convincing is that we had full day volume on a 1/2 day holiday.  I find this bullish. I’m watching for a complete break out.

BPENER – This also finally backs up the bullish side of the story.

OAS – I captured this on Monday morning at 10:15 before leaving for the day.  I posted in the comments that at least we are seeing some of these Energy stocks that are lingering at the lows,  break above their down trend lines.   XLE & OIH continued higher.

DNR – This hardly looks like it moved on Friday,  but that is actually a 9% move & it does look like it could just be starting. Still near the lows, this could be bought in this area or after it breaks above the 50sm for the patient ones.

PQ –   I’ve already been pointing out  AREX, RES, ERF as leaders, and now I’m looking for ‘set ups’  that look ready to POP.   PQ has that look.  See also WLL, WG, WTI, OAS, WPX, and more.   I may be covering these further in future reports.

WTIC –  NOTE: OIL ITSELF is at possible resistance,  so if Oil drops on the inventory report,  it  might be a good chance to just watch the energy stocks.  WED is usually the Oil inventory report, and I don’t think that that changed because of the U.S. holiday.

 

NATGAS –  NATGAS stalled at resistance, and that was our expected price target from the lows.   It dropped and filled the gap and really needs to move higher to remain safe. I actually think that NATGAS might break down here.  I am seeing weakness.

 

NATGAS –  This was posted in prior reports,   and is a definite possibility.  I am not short or long currently.

 

URANIUM –  I have been discussing this sector and individual stocks for a while now,  and slowly this sector continues to improve, so let’s take a look…

 

URA JUNE 30 –  To me this was a Bullish set up from June 30th.  I expected a break out higher above the 50sma, and bought UEC.

URA –  We have the break out as of Monday.

URG JUNE 8 – Double bottom with nice divergence

URG – Last week I pointed out that it looked like it wanted to break out and that double bottom from early June did hold up.  It has been a slow process with all of this consolidation.

URG –   URG did break out Monday, but then reversed back lower, please read the chart.

UEC–  I already pointed out this UEC set up several times and it remains bullishly set up too. I own this one.

DNN from June 30-  DNN has not broken out from this bottom consolidation,  but it looks ready to.  It has continued sideways and is nearing that 50sma.   It could be bought with a stop below the recent lows.

UUUU – I would buy this here

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

I  clipped this from the weekend report.   Here I said that I am now leaning toward a sell off in the precious metals.

 

 

And Gold rolled over the next day and lost the 200sma.  Gold was down $23.10.

 

GDX from my weekend report.

 

GDX from Monday morning at 10:37 –  I drew this before I left for the day.  It basically shows that we are rolling over at the start of a daily cycle, and we could have plenty of downside to come.

GDXJ –  Here I just wanted to point out the trend line break.

So Wednesday picks up where the weekend report left off, except now we see that Energy and Uranium stocks are in a Bullish set up and some could be bought either here or after they break out for further conviction.  It may pay off to just watch a bit longer and see how Oil acts in this area.  Oil is at a possible resistance point, and the inventory may cause a small pullback and opportunity to watch your favorite Energy stocks. Please do some Due diligence before buying a stock and see if their earnings have been released yet or if they are due.  That can always add a bit of extra movement in 1 way or the other.

Enjoy your Wednesday trading.

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~ALEX

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EYES-  I still like this set up, even though it Gapped open and reversed lower.   This was a big pop , and it hit $1.46 before closing at $1.27.  It may drop further & tag the 50sma, but so far it popped open and dropped to fill the gap and landed on the 10sma.  It could stop on the 10sma.  It also was acting correctly for 2 weeks after moving out of that base.

 

RGSE –  RGSE  is in a base, yet it looks like it may want to break out. If it breaks out, it could run quickly higher. I like the chart set up, but a stop must be used because it can go either way.  ( Mental or physical stop).

PARR –  That is a solid consolidation and now another break out higher.  RON B mentioned this and REGI as refiners that he likes.  This stock has been acting well, consolidating sideways from April to June and now it has broken out.  I believe that it would be wrong to chase this here, but it could be bought if it drops back to the 10sma again.

 

TRCH –  Johnny wanted me to post a chart of TRCH.  He likes the fundamentals.  This daily chart shows a consolidation has been taking place,  but it is moving higher and we do see higher lows. And…

 

TRCH WEEKLY –  The weekly chart looks quite promising, especially if it breaks out here.