June 20 – Market Snapshot

On the weekend,  I used this chart to point out that the NASDAQ did find support on the 10 weekly MA. This is often an area that holds as support, so would the markets move higher from here?

The markets did move higher, and I would use recent lows as a stop.

USD – The USD looks to be on day 3 of a new daily cycle

WTIC from the weekend –  Oil needs to get above the 10sma, I have not been buying OIL or Energy stocks yet.

WTIC – Stockcharts charts for Oil, NATGAS, Gold & Silver were all incorrect. Oil actually dropped again on Monday.  Breaking the May low would indicate that we have not seen the ICL.

XLE –  Xle has a higher low here now, but remains in a downtrend for 1/2 of a year.  I haven’t been buying Oil / Energy stocks yet, but I have pointed out some bullish looking leaders. A break out above the 50sma would be the start of something more encouraging, and would possibly signal that it is safe  to start buying Energy stocks..

NATGAS – Stockcharts NATGAS chart was incorrect , so I grabbed this one to show that Natty made a new low.  The MACD did not get a bullish cross, it tagged & dropped.  I went long last week with a small starter position & got stopped out.

The weekly chart from the weekend report – I mentioned that I’d watch for a rejection or recovery, and so far the rejection is in tact.

STEEL – Steel itself dropped with the Fed Wednesday, and so far it does look a bit ugly.  I think that it might be bottoming, because…

AKS –  Steel stocks seem to still be holding their recent lows.

Aluminum –  Aluminum also dropped last week, below the 200sma.  It almost recovered yesterday, and it could be a shake out if it does recover.

CENX – Aluminum Stocks have pulled back, but this chart of CENX remains in an uptrend.

Gold Weekly  from the weekend report –  Gold was at $1256 and  I was Looking for further selling, since  we also have a weekly swing high in place.

GOLD – Gold sold off on Monday, here it is at $1245.  Gold is starting to look more like the drop in May now.

 GLD –  I noticed that GLD landed on the 200sma.   I have been discussing various scenario possibilities for the precious metals.  The big question:  Is MAY the ICL, since Silver & Miners dropped so sharply then, or is the ICL ahead?

Remember these 2 scenarios pointed out recently:

A bounce here could be a dcl that rolls over into a final daily cycle ( And an ICL)

A bounce here could be the start of a 2nd daily cycle if Gold, Silver, & Miners put in an ICL in May. ( If the ICL lies ahead, a dcl would roll over and drop).

SO the question comes up

Based on Silver & Miners having this type of an ICL looking drop in May.  The question in my mind is…

Why are so Many silver miners still at their recent lows if an ICL is in place?

PAAS – At least if an ICL came in May, we havn’t missed the move higher.  Look at the March, May, & June lows so far .

AG – You haven’t missed the strong run higher. Dec, March, May , & June lows

SSRI – March, May, & June lows

CDE –  CDE broke below a possible uptrend line and is back at the May lows too.

GDX –  GDX sold off a bit more on Monday.  It is getting late in the daily cycle count.

So whether or not an ICL occurred in May or if it lies ahead, it is obvious that many of the Miners, and especially the Silver stocks, have not been running away higher without us, like most moves out of an ICL would.   They look like long consolidations that , if they do break out higher,  will run in a very strong manner.  We have not been left behind, we have actually been saved a little head ache by riding the miners up & back down again.   Patients will pay off if we get that steep drop into an ICL ahead  because these May lows could even eventually be broken.  If MAY was an ICL, these could break & run in a 2nd daily cycle, and we will ride them higher.   For now I continue to monitor this situation and So far there is no big change in that sector.  Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

.

~ALEX

Note: It is sill a bit confusing with Miners, because some Miners do look like bullish set ups and we are at proper timing for a dcl in Precious Metals.

GORO –  I  traded this one, and it looks like a buy right here.  I almost wanted to try trading it again, since this is how it acted as Gold dropped yesterday, so like I said, I am watching the situation, expecting a drop into an ICL, but aware that if MAY was an ICL,  we could be looking at a dcl and the start fo a 2nd daily cycle.     It is tricky with most Miners NOT looking like May was an ICL.

KLDX –  To confuse things even more,  we have some Miners that broke the May lows, and already recovered. With Gold selling off on Monday, this is how a few miners look.  They look like they are leading the way higher. Even if Gold just did a nose dive into an ICL, doesn’t this look like it would drop to the 50sma and put in a higher low?   SO we continue to monitor things.

CDE –  I did want to point out the possible bullish set up on CDE.  I like the triangle patten if this break down recovers, so I will be watching this.   The lower line was broken, but it could act as a shake out if this is a DCL and the start of a second daily cycle  (with a Silver ICL in May).   The May lows were not broken yet.  These Miners really need to break back above the 200sma and curl it back up to start a bullish move higher,  so a break out higher would be nice.