Friday June 16

Just a quick report this morning, because today is Friday and it is the last trading day of the week.

 

 

NASDAQ –  Yesterday I was watching this slight push higher after the sell off, just in case it was a bear flag. The 50sma would be watched for support or failure.

QQQ- About an hour before the markets closed, I posted this chart in the comments / Chat section and pointed out that this actually could be finding support with a reversal at that 50sma.  A set up like this can be bought with a stop right below support.  TQQQ looks just like this too.

 

 

Please excuse typos, I am running late & want to just release this without double checking it.

 

NATGAS finally showed signs of strength and a bullish looking swing low seems to be in place. Many try to use leverage for a trade in NATGAS using UGAZ & BOIL.  BOIL is safer, but still moves quickly, so do not let these trrades get away from you if they run in the wrong direction.  USE STOPS.

NATGAS – Because NATGAS broke down, it may just do a back test,  KEEP THIS IN MIND.  I pointed this out in OIL many weeks ago, and it played out perfectly./

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LESSON:

ON MARCH 29 when OIL broke down and put in a swing low,  I Called for this back test.  This is what I look for in such circumstances, and we have that in NATGAS

WTIC – The back test came and the OIL dropped sharply.

 

OIL IS NOW ALSO CLOSING IN ON A LOW, I WILL DISCUSS THAT IN THE WEEKEND REPORT

 

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GOLD  – Day 27 today for Gold. I discussed this in detail in yesterdays report.  Nothing has changed. This chart shows that we are not oversold and more selling can take place before we see a swing low.

 

I want to briefly /  quickly discuss just a couple of trade ideas.

 

Ongoing trade in  NAK –  I had been buying NAK at the 200sma way back at $1.10.  These are higher lows and it has acted as support.  I am hoping that this will one day pay off with a big move higher , but for now I have accumulated all that I want to hold.  Others may want to buy here,  with a stop shortly under it.

NAK –  I drew this chart up at 2 P.M. as NAK approached that 200sma.

NAK AT THE CLOSE  was on that 200sma-  Some may wish to wait for a reversal higher before buying, just to make sure that NAK still has the buyers needed to hold it up.

 

 

AKS – Many of the STEEL stocks sold off a bit with the market pullback. I own AKS, and it is at my limit for a dip.  I dont want to ride it back to a ‘double bottom’ scenario, I’d rather sell it and re-buy if it hold up.  SO this is the limit for me.

 

URA –  I have been mentioning Uranium from time to time.  It seems to be in a bottoming process, and may be taking a bit longer than expected.  It could result in some very good trades when the time comes. These move rather quickly, like Precious Metals mining stocks .

 

On May 9th I saw URA break out and I thought that it would run to the 50sma at $14.00+ area  for a start. 

URA DID RUN TO $14, like I expected, but that was it.  Like I said,  this bottoming process is taking longer than expected, but remains bullish. So far it was just a short term trade in MAY, but it may become more of a buy & hold after this bottom is in place.

 

KGC –  NOT A BUY –  JUST A NOTE

Some Miners are acting stronger than others, and I have mentioned these in the past. RGLD, IAG, KGC for example.  I am keeping an eye on these, to see if they remain strong in this pullback.  THEY MAY BE OUR STRONGER LEADERS when the lows are in place.

Let’s look at KGC for example :  This one still looks quite healthy.

1. Higher lows from Dec, March, May, and so far now.

2. Above the 200sma, and the 200sma is almost curling back upward

3. drawing a trend line from the 3 lows could lead to that 200sma.

 

In a similar watch list,  I have been watching some TECH stocks that I like as they consolidate .  If they continue to shape up in a bullish manner, I may take a position in 1 or 2 when the markets settle down, since we could experience a blow off top type finish to the run higher.

 

We’ll start with a prior lesson:

I pointed out in a prior lesson, that like we saw with AAPL ,  these long ugly corrections can be difficult to endure, but they can lead to the next run higher after the sellers get out of the way.  Appl has obviously been in a solid bull run for years. consolidated and sold off for over a year. Then the BULL finally returned.

 

 

I have been watching CY.   I traded it in 2016, but I bought it just for a short run, and sold it too soon. It was just too jumpy.   Look at that consolidation over the past few months while the NASDAQ ran higher and higher. This looks like bullish consolidation for the next run higher, and if the NASDAQ does do a blow off top,  this could join in with zest.  Look at the last run from the TAG of the yellow line to the red line  (Nov to April).

 

So it is Friday and we have 1 last trading day for the week, enjoy!

 

~ALEX

 

1 last note or lesson:  At times you will hear me mention or warn about ‘over trading’.  I see people continue to try to jump in at what looks like a low, and get stopped out again and again and again, and it chips away at funds.  Well over trading can also be experienced with good looking set ups in choppy markets.  I have experienced this myself over the past month, so let me explain.

I have had good trade set ups and made many trade entries, many mentioned here, but as for follow through?   Some start out good, but the choppy markets are causing some to stall and stumble around.  I went back  and looked at my recent trades, and I am actually barely treading water.  I wanted to share this with you, just in case you are finding similar results.   It is due to the markets conditions and ‘bottoming’  can be a process that causes stops to get hit. Let me show you…

 

AKS, I got in after that bull flag looking low broke higher, I am down on this position and it threatens to stop me out.  It was a good set up,  BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY BOTTOMING.

WKHS – Another good set up, it looked ready to break out & run higher.  I am slightly down now.

TANH –  I am up on this one

NAK –  I am up

 

 

NATGAS & OIL SHORTS, I was up.

IPI –  Sold for a small loss

CSTM –  Sold for almost $1 / share gain above $7.40

GSV & GORO small gains

 

CGIX  & VSTM –  GAINS

JNUG / JDST Scalps –  Gains & losses –  stopped out for losses more than I remembered.

 

And there are more…

 

Now – I added up all my gains (many small gains)  and all my losses (  A few)  and I still basically broke even over 1 month.  I was positioned heavier in some of my scalp leveraged losses and all of my efforts to trade have been a little less rewarding with the choppiness in the markets.  This is why I keep saying to keep position size small and trades manageable.

 

WHEN THIS HAPPENS –  I often step back and analyze what the market conditions are, etc.  It is at times like this that I realize that waiting for an ICL or a solid DCL after a sell off is the best time to make money if you are a short term or medium term trader.  In current conditions I have found that when I enter a trade,  if I sell the POP in a day or few, I make & keep small gain after gain.  If I hold for a week or two,  the Gains often turn to losses in these choppy markets ( Like AKS).  Coming out of DCL or ICL, I can buy & hold for weeks and gains continue to pile up.  Consolidations and bottoming choppiness can be tough for traders.

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People beg me for trade ideas and set ups at all times and under all market conditions, so I do put many in the reports.  The lesson here could be

1. Only trade during the best of market conditions, and Patiently wait during other times,  OR

2. Learn how to trade more effectively in choppier market conditions or when inside of a possible ‘bottoming process’.  Often that means quickly scalping the pops or gains when they come along.  I find that hanging on to ripe fruit in choppy markets can leave me eventually  holding rotting fruit.

 

We have all seen how ‘bases’ can form at lows, and with the Steel stocks for example, we may be seeing that now.  Price can  POP, and then return to the lows and bounce around.  Trading at lows may require a different strategy.

We are currently waiting for LOWS in Precious Metals, and NATGAS, OIL, and URANIUM may be near short term or even Loner term lows. It may be best to wait for these lows if you are finding ‘trading’ to be less profitable than you expected. Also keep position size small if the market conditions are not ideal.