June 14th – Clues

We’ve been looking for and discussing clues heading into  todays Fed Decision.  Let’s discuss Tuesdays action…

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USD –  Due for a DCL, The USD has put in a swing low.  If it runs higher, you have to imagine that Gold would drop.

WTIC – Wednesday is the Oil inventory report, and this chart shows that Oil is at the 10sma resistance again.  Pass or Fail time.  Several OIL, ENERGY stocks are lined up nicely,  we will focus on this area when / if it turns bullish.  (  AREX, ERF, RES).

SN – I captured this at 11:30 in the morning, and normally I would buy this with a stop closely below it. Many Oil stocks are shaping up like this one for example. It was breaking above the 30sma for the first time in months. If Oil breaks out, many of these are probably rising out of the lows.

NATGAS – I’ve discussed NATGAS enough lately, see the weekend report for a weekly chart too.

GOLD – Gold stopped right at the 50sma. It IS in the timing for a dcl, but I didn’t buy this because these daily cycles can extend for another 10 days too. It is Fed Wednesday.

Notice that SILVER did NOT put in a reversal. Selling volume picked up and the stochastics is not quite oversold.

GDXJ – To be honest, this is usually a bullish break out that I would add to my position. I sold my Goro & GSV, and  I do not own any precious metals stocks now.  I want to wait until Post Fed Decision.

I wanted to look at a few more Miners, like I did in yesterdays report, to show how mixed this picture still is. It also shows that, after the recent consolidation, if we get a run higher similar to what we had in 2016, we have a lot of upside gains coming our way.

ABX – Whether price drops here to the lower line, or breaks out, a run like 2016 added on to this consolidation would present very nice gains.

AG MONTHLY –  This monthly chart remains bullish.  Price can drop from here into an ICL and present a great buying opportunity as drawn. A break out higher would do the same, so patience will pay off one way or the other.

AUY – A drop to an ICL is perfectly normal in the big picture. A break out towards $3 would be too.

IAG –  IAG has been quite bullish lately,

but a drop into an ICL from here would be great actually ( Drawn in blue).

So Miners in the BIG PICTURE remain bullish and a nice buying opportunity (long) is fast approaching.  Finally I wanted to just point out a chart that I like a lot, and I did buy it Tuesday morning.

POT, AGU, MOS popped last week, and I mentioned that I wanted to watch IPI, another fertilizer ag stock.  Tuesday it POPPED and I jumped in early, but dropped back down a bit. I still think that it could be ready to go.

IPI–  This is a long base that appears ready to break out. In the past,  we have bought these and watched them rapidly run higher.  Bases like this can produce some of the best gains, when they are ready to go.

The IPI weekly chart looks like an Inverse H&S too.

CGA –  With POT, MOS, AGU, and now IPI Popping, this is another China Ag stock on my list. I am watching this one now too,  and the 1.5 year base looks constructive to me .  The daily chart Popped Tuesday too.

CGA DAILY – I watched this one POP, but I am concerned about the average daily volume. It also Popped in February, but it just wasn’t ready to leave the base seen in the weekly chart above.  Look again at that weekly chart and this POP may have caused a break out from the triangle. I’m keeping an eye on this one now too. It is in a 1.5 year base.

It’s a Fed Wednesday, and anything can happen after that Fed announcement.  In the past I have warned that the initial reaction is NOT always the next lasting direction. In the past I have seen a sharp rally from 2 p.m. into 3 p.m., and suddenly it rolls over and sells off into the close, followed by more selling down on Thursday. I have also seen the opposite happen, with an initial sell off at 2 p.m., and then buyers step in at 3:30 and it reverses higher into the close.

Personally this has been a very tricky set up with Gold.  If we get a rate hike, it should be bullish for Gold, but we didn’t get a normal ICL sell off, so we just may have to endure a sell off into an ICL first.   Gold has just simply been putting in higher highs and higher lows.

Well,  as you know, I’ve been talking about this day after day after day, trying to help everyone understand what I intend to for and what could happen.  It is finally show time! I still recommend keeping positions small until we see what is going to happen, so let’s just see what this Fed Wednesday brings.  🙂  Happy trading & thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

~ALEX