May 10th – Changes

We do see some changes occurring in the markets, so let’s discuss them.  They may be just temporary or they could last for a little while, so we will discuss that too.

SPX – This was an engulfing candle, but they bought it back toward the end of the day. Could this be the start of the dip into a dcl?

IWM –  I like to use the Russell 2000 and the NYA to get a better picture of the general markets. We see the 2 gaps have already filled here, but the stochastics is still not oversold and therefore more downside is possible.

NASDAQ – The NASDAQ , which has been very strong, also seems to have put in a topping candle, so we could see some selling in the markets going forward.

WTIC –  The Oil inventory report is out this morning.  We saw an unconfirmed swing low form here. A push higher would signal that a dcl likely took place. Some energy stocks look O.K., others need improvement, so I haven’t really recommended a position in this sector yet. This is not a confirmed dcl. ( See the difference in charts between  AREX and OAS).

NATGAS – I was happy to see that NATGAS didn’t break the lows and reversed. I like that the 50 sma has curled upward and I do expect a break out higher soon.

GLD – GOLD & SILVER dropped to new lows Tuesday and GDX & GDXJ did NOT break down.  This is often a good sign that Miners will lead the way higher.  GLD put in a possible reversal candle on Tuesday. This is a 4th daily cycle,  very short lived, so caution to any viewing this as a buy signal for Miners  ( Me included).

As a sidenote:  GDX:GLD  is also a by signal for Miners , but it should prove to be short lived.  Let’s just say that  Miners an top in 11 days or less.

GDX – Gold & Silver sold off to new lows, but Miners Did NOT at all.  I usually ‘buy’ that as a short term trader.   GDX & GDXJ even closed as a reversal. This chart is just taking a guess at what we may expect with Miners.  A break out and run?  No.

GDXJ – I should mention that Miners can just go sideways for 2 weeks and then drop too. That is frustrating.  This path drawn below is given as a best case scenario.

GDXJ – Do you see what I see? Not a new Bull rally starting for the short term, but a bounce in a weak daily cycle. Best case scenario. If something more bullish than this were to happen, we would adjust our view, but that is extremely unlikely.

GDXJ – Big picture, GDXJ broke below the uptrend line.

URA – I didn’t want to call this too early and have people buying and getting stopped out,  and a week or two ago it did not quite look right to me. Now Uranium is starting to shape up bullishly. Some Uranium stocks on my watchlist consist of  UUUU, URRE, UEC, URG, DNN.

NXGEF –  This is a Uranium company mentioned in our comments section by Ray. He uses the Canadian ticker NXE. This is a bullish set up and it didn’t drop with URA, so that is even more encouraging. This was Monday May 8th.  A closer looks is next…

NXGEF –  MAY 9th, this makes sense, it paused at the 50sma.  A break above the 50sma would be considered bullish or even ‘a buy’ with  a stop under that 50sma. This is a low volume stock, and I personally probably wont be trading it. NXE is the Canadian version and it trades with volume in the millions.

NAK from yesterdays report.  It may just ramp up in a similar way that it did last year.

NAK continued higher.  You can see that it may be at a resistance line, but the RSI is not as high as the tops last spring, so it could break higher too, before resting and pulling back.  It is outside of the B.B., but that is never a sell point alone for me.

That is your Wednesday report.  We had several trade ideas in yesterdays report that remain valid and just a couple today. Enjoy your trading!

~ALEX

MACK –  I have been holding MACK since $3 inside of this base. I held on to it even though they release earnings this morning. We’ll see if we finally get a break out.  Hopefully it does not break down, or I will just exit my position.  It has pushed against the highs for weeks now.

FUEL –  I own this and I went back and read their last earnings report. It was very good to me, and that report is what caused the ramp higher last spring.  Well, with NAK running higher as my biggest postion, I decided to hold FUEL through earnings.  After hrs it looked like a 55 cent drop, and that could take it down below the 50sma, but then…

I bet no one else saw this chart.  It showed up after hrs when I got in , and then went away. This dropped to $4.00, but that really didn’t happen in after hrs.  Phantom candle?  Well, it is disappointing to see FUEL drop after earnings.  The earnings report looked good, but just not AS good as it was last quarter. People began to bail out in after hrs. While other companies are losing money and their stock still rises,  FUEL reported that their Revenue derived from North America was $74.8 million, down 12% from last year’s first quarter. Revenue from outside North America was $20.4 million, up 3% from last year. Cash and Cash Equivalents: $62.8 million as of March 31, 2017, compared to $84.0 million as of December 31, 2016. Good , but not good enough, compared to last quarter.

Well, it seems that the stock is going to pull back and I cannot tell where it will slow down and firm up, so it should become a sell for me after the bell.  My stop was this trend line, as drawn yesterday.  Closing below the 50sma & this trendline would have to be my stop. That MACD was signaling that it didnt belong back at the highs, and I knew it, but I held on to my position. I expected better results after looking over last quarters earnings, but it just didn’t seem to be enough to satisfy the holders of this stock in after hrs.  I’ll have to just put it back on the watch list.

JUST A SIDE NOTE OF CAUTION:   Going back to the idea that “Uranium stocks are looking like they are oversold and could be a buy”.  This is UUUU and you can see the strong bounce. It didnt hold the 10sma yet, so I want to personally make sure that this isnt just an oversold bounce & shorts covering…

We would still need a break above the 50 & 200sma for this to remain bullish and not just an oversold bounce and a back test . URRE is trying to get back above the 200sma, and I am watching others for signs of strength too, and not just a bounce and a short term trade, as shown with the red dotted line.  I always remain cautious when attempting to get back above KEY moving averages, ( unless we are coming out of an ICL in Miners, I am less cautious then).