Thursday April 27

Last week I mentioned that the sideways choppy market action and sell offs that we were experiencing would eventually lead to bullish trade set ups. At this time, it seems that we are starting to see some of those good looking trade set ups. Along with the set ups we are also seeing some follow through on the trades that some of us have already been in. Let’s review some of Wednesdays action…

WTIC – I was waiting for the Oil inventory report to see if Oil would hold at the 200sma.  The report was bullish and Oil ran higher, but then it drifted back into the close. As you can see, Oil remains the same here, but…

XLE & some of the Energy stocks did not remain completely healthy looking. Some even broke out in the morning and then fell back like the XLE here. I like the MACD divergence, but a little more time may be needed to see if these shape up. I was looking at SWN, CIE, MRO, and a few others in yesterdays report, but I did not enter any trades in Energy on Wednesday.

NATGAS–  As mentioned, I have been wanting to take this trade again, and I would normally buy this set up. I didnt enter the trade yet, because NATGAS inventory reports come out on Thursday, so I wanted to wait one more day.  This set up looks ready to run higher if you ask me.  I may buy UGAZ again on Thursday, even if I do have to miss these higher lows. A quick slam to the 200sma would be nice 🙂

GOLD –  Gold is really not slamming down into a dcl like Silver and the Miners are. A mild pullback to support COULD be it, or it could extend 5 more days and bottom at the MAY 3 FOMC. Gold is not oversold.

YEN –  The yen looks to have bottomed with a reversal on support.  I do see a MACD cross down and the stochastics are not fully oversold, so this could do what we saw in early March. That had a reversal on the 50  and then broke down a bit more.

SILVER –  Silver is selling off in a normal manner as it seeks out the next dcl. It is barley oversold, so we wait for a swing low before attempting to call a dcl bottom.

GDX – Wednesday gave the Miners a strong reversal. This does NOT automatically mean that the lows are in, do you remember all of the reversals in the sell off in early March? At this point, we can watch for a move above the 22.42 for a swing and see if it holds there. GDX is barley oversold too. Do you see the way Miners sold off in early March .   Reversals were sold off.

GDX –  IF this was the 3rd daily cycle low right now, I am just throwing out an idea of what we could see. I show a bounce into the FOMC mtg, and then Yellen might halt any upward progress.

GDXJ – GDXJ already took out the March lows and many Miners have too, some are at the DEC lows. This has been expected.

We have  the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.  After seeing what happens in precious metals Thursday and Friday of this week,  I may have a better idea of how things will play out, and I can discuss this further in the weekend report.

Next lets discuss trades that we some of us have already been riding for a while.

NAK – There are times when a stock is consolidating or base forming and it can try ones patience, but when they finally go, it can be very rewarding. I have not been stopped out and I have even added to NAK around the 200sma. It POPPED above the 50sma again on Wednesday, up 10%.  I’m not selling it, but with the 50sma sloping down at that angle, it may take time before former highs can be achieved.

MACK  –  The Base continues, but I think that this wants to break out sooner than later. I’ve been holding this for over a month and added at the 50sma. I’m hoping that patience will pay off.

MARCH 17th– The BASE. I am just showing this chart from 1 month ago to point out why I originally bought this under the 50sma, and added on the pop and back test. I love bases like this when they are ready to break out bullishly.

CGIX  CGIX did surge out of its base and more than doubled. It has been consolidating for a couple of weeks and then turned up again. It has now run up from $3.25 to $4.75 ( 40% move) in under 10 days. Sometimes patience pay off.

At this point I just want to review some Bullish Metals stocks in anticipation that others may also remain bullish.   X ( US STEEL) released earnings and got slaughtered down 27% Wednesday.  Closing at the lows, that will likely take time to mend itself. Other Metal stocks are breaking higher and other set ups still look promising, so I will review that here, IT WOULD BE BEST TO  CHECK AND SEE IF & WHEN THEY RELEASE THEIR EARNINGS IF YOU ARE GOING TO ENTER A TRADE. Write that date down and keep an eye on things.

AA–  Aluminum – This was my April 24 chart.

AA – Nice Follow through

CENX – ALUMINUM – Also a break out and nice follow through. When CENX ran in the past, it ran strongly.

SO what about  FCX-  Earnings were already released on Tuesday and it is just now breaking out. And if this copper stock runs…

What about HBM?  This is a low risk entry right here ( read the chart). Earnings are scheduled for MAY 4th, next Thursday.

NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT BECOME OVERWHELMED BY THE NUMBER OF TRADE SET UPS IN THIS OR OTHER REPORTS. You are simply being given choices. Some have great bases while others may be double bottoms, Sitting on support after a pullback, cup & handles , etc.  You can’t take all of the Trades, you dont even always have to take any of them, but possibly you can continue to learn from them. Maybe you are just patiently waiting for the ICL? That is great! By seeing various set ups and by watching them play out or even Fail, ( Like CGIX, NAK, MACK, or even X for example) you can learn a bit more about trading.  That said, we will review ore set ups…

On April 18th I mentioned that the 3-d Printer Stocks were bullishly setting up. I mentioned  SSYS, DDD, VJET, and XONE.

This was the SSYS weekly chart and I love that base!  I wanted to point out that all of these seem to have been dumped and are now in long bases where the selling dried up. Do you see the potential if they get into a Bull Run again?  $20 to $130 over time?

SSYS is breaking out from that base, let’s look at a few others.

VJET –  This was my April 20th chart from that report. It broke from the down trend and this chart showed how VJET was now pushing on the 50sma at $3.

VJET – It pushed through the 50sma and is slowly grinding higher. This sector may be coming to life. For now, there are trade set ups appearing.

XONE – Inside of another long base, XONE finally joined in yesterday.  It is only up 3.57% , but it looks to be breaking from this base and volume is increasing.  At this point, it also MIGHT just keep building this base ( Like my MACK TRADE).   I like the set up & sector at this point.

FUEL – I wanted to show this stock ( I’ve owned a few thousand shares and hope to hold it for the long term). After a long steady climb out of a beautiful base of its own,  it started to pull back sharply in April. Suddenly it regained all of that multi week drop in 3 days.  Volume is very big, and this can just break out and run.  Let me show you why I bought it a while ago and why I still like it now. It looks extended to some, but I added yesterday..

FUEL WEEKLY – After breaking above the 50 weekly MA at $2.50, that is when the upward steady climb just kept going.  I was only going to do a quick  scalp trade, but it never really pulled back in Feb or March, as seen in the ABOVE. Now this weekly chart is showing 3 days of volume this week and it looks excellent.  Landing back on the 10 weekly MA this month shows bullish support. This chart also shows the upside potential…

FUEL WEEKLY – FUEL was a  $40-$65 stock in 2014. It looks set to make a solid comeback and the upside is fairly huge if this continues. That is why I want to just hold this for a while.

SID – I bought a small SID position Thursday morning ( this chart is from 10:55 a.m.), anticipating that selling has dried up and a break of the trend line could come next.  If it struggles for too long, I will likely just sell it.

EDXC –  I have owned it from November and it looks like it is ready to continue higher again.  See the chart.

EDXC WEEKLY – This has not been an easy ride, but it is a purchase that I just bought and decided to ignore. I bought EDXC at 3 cents.  It ran to 9 cents ( A triple) , and now is at 6 cents. At least that’s a double. This chart is acting bullishly, but it too is forming a long base.

So this report is as long as a weekend report, because it has a lot of interesting set ups and possible trade ideas.  Again, you cannot take all of the trades, but recently it was hard to find a good set up and now you can find one or two that you like. This means that you can take a trade or two or just watch as they play out and I often cover them in future reports to show the progress. This helps us to  learn and gain confidence in future set ups.   X  ( US STEEL) is unfortunately a good example of how an Earnings report can affect a stock.  Some try to sell before earnings  releases for that reason.  Sometimes the surprise is to the upside.  With this in mind, all of these stocks in the report need to be watched and use a stop if necessary. Some, like FCX, have already released their earnings, others will do so in the future, so due diligence may be necessary.  Enjoy your Wednesday trading and thanks for being here at Chartfreak.

~ALEX