Friday March 10th

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After a quick market review, I wanted to just briefly touch on the fact that we have ‘No Bounce’ in the Precious Metals sector.

  This Friday report is just a report will some additional ideas.  There is only 1 trading day left in the week, I will cover more in the weekend report. I’m running late, so I will release it and then have to proof read for mistakes, please ignore mistakes. thx

 

SPX –  The SPX is quite deep in the timing for a daily cycle low.  It is extremely right translated and as I mentioned yesterday, I do not think that it has to break the lower trend line that I drew a week ago. It has broken below the vertical trend line and now the RSI is curling upward as we drop. A move above the 10sma could be the DCL at this point.  I will take a starter position when that happens. Either TQQQ or one of the stocks that I have been watching that ran higher and hopefully pulls back a bit more.

 

JUST A THOUGHT–  The general markets are due for an ICL drop after the next daily cycle.

I have been watching nice runs higher in CY, TSEM, MU, MOMO, FNSR, EXTR, S, YRD, CIEN, etc –   HOWEVER…  Do you remember when CDE got hit after earnings, and then AG, and then EXK, etc and then the sector sold off?  Will we see that in the general markets?  Take a look at CIEN this week , and then last night FNSR also released earnings and was down $7.  Are the cracks appearing , since this SPX, NAZ, and DOW are going to be due for an ICL  in a month or two also?

I do expect  my SPX 2427 target to be hit and it can even reach the extended targets of 2450, even 2500, but we shall have to wait and see, because this  next daily cycle will most likely be ‘left translated’, since we will now be due for a drop into an ICL.  More in the weekend report.

FNSR _ A champion that I was watching a perfect cup & Handle. Today it looks to open at $29 so far

CIEN

 CRACKS Like we saw in CDE, AG, EXK?

 

.

USD – The USD dropped and GOLD simply ‘paused’. The USD is due to drop into a DCL. I’m struggling to picture what is going to happen after the FED WED next week with the USD and GOLD now both due for a dcl soon. We’ll discuss that in the weekend report too.

WTIC – I was hoping for a bounce to be able to grab a short etf, but instead we had some downside follow through. If we get a bounce, I will take a short position, because this has time and expectations to fall for a while.  More in the weekend report.

 

GOLD _ We are running out of time before we have the Fed Decision next week.  What will happen if we dont get a bounce before that meeting?  I would think that Gold would rally after it, but at this point bith GOLD ,Silver, and the Miners look to be failing and it appears they will not make new highs before  they drop into their next ICL.

 

 

GOLD–  So this is perplexing. This does not look like a normal bull market drop into a 2nd dcl, it actually resembles a bear market drop into a dcl  🙁 .   Earlier this week or even last week, I would have expected 1 of these 2 scenarios …

1.  I thought that maybe Gold would put the dcl in place early this week , bounce for 7 to 8 days into the Fed Wednesday next week, and then roll over  into another dcl, while the USD would bottom on the Fed Wednesday  and rally out of a its dcl then.

2.  Or Gold would drift a bit and put in a dcl next week, then Rally at the Fed Wed decision.  At this point, it looks like the USD will put in a dcl next week, but Gold is also due for  dcl and a bounce. Miners are way overdue.  If Gold bottoms here on Friday or Monday and starts to bounce, that only gives it 2 or 3 days before next Wednesday?  That would be a very weak daily cycle if it topped on Wed or Thurs.

I wanted to buy and trade the dcl when it comes, but I honestly thought that it would be early this week and we could ride it for 8-10 days (and then get out before the Fed Wednesday).  Now the timing for these areas seems extended and a bit ‘off ‘ timing-wise, so…

I am personally still going to play the bounce in Miners if we get one soon, but it will be risky with such a short amount of time left before the Fed Mtg.  Here is how I am looking at it.  In a STEEP RUN UP  or a STEEP DROP like we have in the chart below, I feel that I can use a break of the 6 sma instead of the 10sma to enter.  If we get a swing Friday or Monday above the 6sma, it will have to be a very short term trade. This is NOT a good trade for those not in front of their screens constantly, and it’s not really a recommendation.  I am showing what I may do, but it is a very risky idea with the Fed Wed so close.

We’ll see what Friday brings our way, and as you can see,  there will be plenty to talk about in the weekend report. For most people, I would think that the next ICL is the place to go long. At least you know that you are going to get around 8 weeks of rally out of it, whether it is a bull or bear market. There will be other ‘trades’ along the way, but that will be the real profit maker, since the Miners move in large %’s when they get going.

Enjoy your Friday trading and the weekend!

~ALEX

 

I mentioned in the comments yesterday that with the general markets pulling back, Oil pulling back, Precious Metals pulling back and so on, I have found what look to be some good set ups in the markets, but they are failing.   CLF, VALE, HBM, TGB, etc all fell below their 50sma, and may need a bit more time to re-group.  At times like that it is often just the wrong time to trade until things settle down, and it may be best to wait until the markets firm up a bit, and put in their dcl.

I’ll just share one more of the many stocks that I am also watching  ( I own CLNE and it did a funny gap fill & reversal yesterday).  CLNE is in the NATGAS area, so it may not get taken down with oil. See also XCO and NGS.

This is in that sector too  and also did a funny reversal after earnings .

FGP – This company deal with PROPANE and related equipment.  They released earnings and it sold off and reversed yesterday. This is a nice double bottom base, but nothing that I have been trying as a trade has been having follow through, so I am keeping an eye on it. I like that it released earnings and dropped and closed higher, because now all sellers MIGHT be out.   If someone bought it here, it’s an easy ‘stop’ right below the lows.

 

 

138 replies
  1. deshy
    deshy says:

    GC trying to make a break…I think it might actually be successful this time. Though still sitting on my hands watching.:-)

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Yeah, Seems like everything bottomed on Jobs report , and maybe the USD will bottom ( DCL) on the FED decision late Wednesday.

        This will be small bounce in Miners if it is just Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wed morning : (

        • deshy
          deshy says:

          I’ll look to clear house of the very few miners I have over the next couple of days. Start with a clean slate and fresh mind. Been a long couple of weeks. 🙂

  2. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I’m going to play the bounce or lows here in various ways ( Not entirely sure how ) , but the most important thing will be to watch HOW this bounces.

    MINERS – OIL – MARKETS – individual Stocks , etc

    For example – If this is a light volume tepid bounce in Miners and OIL- they may be ‘shorting candidates’ next week.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Thanks for sharing your plans Alex. Good to know your honest thoughts, even if you aren’t sure.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        One thing that I am sure of, cycle timing is off and the markets are not acting the way they normally have in the past. Cycles run with expectations – and some of those expectations are at times changed by market conditions. I see that right now. For example:

        MIners peaked in early Feb out of an ICL ( way too early for a L.T. daily cycle to form in a bull market in my opinion ), and Gold acted normally with 2 R.T. daily cycles. Now the dip is deeper and looks weaker internally for Gold than it should be for a 2nd dcl, so it would seem that GOLD will not make a new high, though a Right translated 2nd daily cycle calls for a new high in the 3rd daily cycle. So Gold probably will not make new highs, even though it had 2 r.t. daily cycles? If it does, what do Miners do? And the USD?

        So what we are seeing is now a bit ‘off ‘ of the normal synchronization, and the best thing that one can do when the rules of the game are distorted, is to play it the best and safest way that you can. For some it might be wait and see, and maybe wait for an ICL. That also means for others, if we take a bounce in Miners pre-fed, it would be best to get out on Fed Wed and see what happens. I always have a plan, and a back up plan, to protect funds when things do not act the way they normally would, and things are not crystal clear right now, like they have been in the past.

        There is more, but I’ll leave it for the weekend report. 🙂

        • Maria
          Maria says:

          Good stuff CF.

          BIG windstorm here knocked out power all over..day 3 without internet..uggh.
          Worst storm on record.
          Thank God for generator for heat. Supposed to go to 19 degrees ….

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Wow, crazy huh. We had HUGE winds too, 65 M.P.H. gusts when it went from 60 degres to 30. Teees fell everwhere, but I didnt lose power. Snow today.

            Glad you have heat, and a generator allows you to use your phone. Is that how you posted here, or are you borrowing wifi?

            I run to Starbucks or Barnes & Noble when I lose mine : ) ( Mc Donalds actually has free wifi now too).

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            Yes i list 2 beautiful pines .. 🙁 using cell and verrry weak Sprint data…
            Very sad..trees down everywhere… Had 70-80 mph winds..

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            We lost a few pines too. The roots don’t dig down deep, they spread out more under the grounds surface, and since last year was a drought, some have lost their strength without finding the deep waters.
            Add to that the mushy ground from this wet winter & spring and they just topple right over.

            If you had any leaning toward the house, it might be a good idea to top them off or have them taken down.

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            Mmmmm..very nice. Back in the day when we went on trailrides we always had destinations-names for our rides..places we’d stop and rest or picnic…ie.
            1. The big tree.. Enormous trunk too young to remember what it was…
            2. The big Hill & which was really just a steep cliff..o man straight up or down..needed major chickb*lls to ride up/down that. Whhoo.
            3. The Pine grove….more of a deep hot summer retreat..almost fortlike with two lanes of pines ..perfectly spaced enuff 4 us to dismount, rest..make camp…ahhhh. That was a special place..Shaded…quiet.. great retreat.

            Etc etc.. Great memories…

            ***especially while im sitting on my deck bundled up..19 degrees..cold wind …warm sun.. with ear plugs in..20 feet from my enormous loud generator.. LOL

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I’m sitting next to the woodstove in an old wooden rocking chair ( No comment about “thats what old people do’ is necessary) using my laptop, about to fall asleep from pure boredom !

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            Lol..ok..thats it.. Im walking over to my sons house to do the same…
            (with my cell and spotty overloaded service)

          • zig-zag
            zig-zag says:

            I grew up in the metropolitan area of NYC (New Jersey) there was a wooded 1/4 acre lot we called
            “The great woods”.
            Your memories sound a lot better.

          • zig-zag
            zig-zag says:

            Ken,
            I live in eastern PA and we have beetles that have pretty much killed off my red pines.
            They seem to leave my spruce trees alone.
            Also have some type of beetle that kills off my ash trees.
            I have lots of firewood……(not pine)

    • zig-zag
      zig-zag says:

      Hi Alex, I love how you honor trend. As you mentioned in the past EW counts can morph into this count or that count; only evident in hindsight.
      Bullish trend = upward movement from the lower left to the upper right of the chart.
      Depending how risk adverse a person is will determine which moving average they want to honor.
      If we get a rally honor the 10DSMA? Or with the volatility that is inherent use a longer one?
      I have guessed wrong too much in my life to guess EW counts or different scenarios, I think using a SMA and a stop at a recent swing low makes sense, If it moves against us we get stopped out and we live to trade another day. If it rips out and runs in some type of wave 3 we should be golden if we honor the SMA.
      Just my two cents.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Your last line … ” If it moves against us we get stopped out and we live to trade another
        day. If it rips out and runs in some type of wave 3 we should be golden
        if we honor the SMA. ”

        It sounds like a plan that will work either way, right? And then you access things as they move forward, make adjustments along the way. AT least you get to play – haha

        • zig-zag
          zig-zag says:

          Yes, it will work either way.
          Make adjustments either way – yes- trend will rule but sometimes you have a candle that is totally out of a Bollinger band or the divergences scream at you and you might want to protect some profits.
          Thanks!

  3. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    This was interesting. I was Looking at NASDAQ — see that 6 day pull back. Rather orderly and bullish looking, and yesterdays price was obviously lower than the day it peaked.

    Usually a 3x etf or ultra etf will often exaggerate that move and drop deeper, making someone holding it feel a bit uncomfortable.

    Then I took a look at TQQQ. IT looks like it went sideways instead of pulling back, and yesterdays price was actually at the price range of the day that TQQQ peaked 6 days ago. Nasdaq was lower. . That drop in the general markets wasnt even scary for the leveraged etfs

  6. deshy
    deshy says:

    Taking a leap of faith on TAN. Sitting on 50dma Falling vol. on selling and I’m hoping to hold this much longer term…time will tell.

  8. Ken
    Ken says:

    It is possible that the FOMC meeting next wed. will “boost” commodities…..i think you need to be atleast have some exposure with stops in place. imho.

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        These miners are pissing me off lol.. Some have no vol and spiking, others still getting beat to death, and others popping…

        • Glmus
          Glmus says:

          I am not a day trader, so I am not frustrated by the popcorn situation. I did, however, just look at my WEEKLY indicators for metals and our other favorites such stocks – they are all red. In the past, the charts tell me that I can simply wait until the weeklies start turning up. When a couple turn up, I can start watching the dailies. Sure I miss a few points at the beginning of a run, but it sure saves a lot of frustration. Maybe the Fed will begin to turn some of my indicators positive. Bottom line, this is research time for me, not trading time. Have a great weekend.

  15. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I’m scrolling through a ton of stuff, and this is one of the more boring lack luster trading periods in a while. Not many sustained moves to ride out.

    I get the feeling that that will change after the Fed Meeting one way or another.

    EDIT: SXE and NRG – energy stocks with great charts.

  16. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Like the Theme said, GDX, GDXJ, NAK – No real bounce yet. I cant picture this continuing into the Fed Mtg, because then I would expect a burst higher , but the timing is way off for that. Quite confusing .

  19. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    Hi Alex….. thanks a lot for all your wisdom what you put in the reports. I mean this!!!
    One short question, I’m long the PM, is it wise to do some hedges in this case JDST?
    Or… are your guts telling you, we are or very close to a bounce?
    Thanks man,

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Geurt

      I feel that we are close to a bounce, we should have begun a bounce by now actually ( A dcl in MIners and Gold) and if we dont get one by the Fed Mtg next week, it is quite unclear what will happen. I would think that that means they are going to rally strongly, but that doesnt match what the Miners have been doing up to now.

      It might be wise to use a small hedge by then – but I am going to discuss most of this in the weekend report.
      Sorry if this doesnt help you a lot. All I can say is that using cycles- we are due timing wise for a bounce.

      • SonOfGud
        SonOfGud says:

        getting some nice green breakouts on my 30min indi.. GORO AUMN AG MUX GDX/J IAG BVN .. amongst others.
        where’s Stevie T when you need him.. to confirm with his 15min?
        tempted to only trade a bounce with GDX/J & JNUG though… need to sell quickly at the click of a mouse.. summat i cannot do when i have a portfolio of umpteen miners.

  21. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    OK, USD is down .56 and GOLD & SILVER just went red too.

    Is the USD going to put in a dcl and both Gold & USD are going to bottom & run on Fed Wednesday will launch both?

    Doesn’t make sense, but what does lately?

    • dsaulw
      dsaulw says:

      It does look to me that gold will bottom around Wednesday. Lately gold has been getting hammered when the dollar goes up, but has not really benefited much when the dollar goes down.

    • Mark
      Mark says:

      Is it possible we may be looking east for a sunset and the USD runs higher and takes gold with it as we experienced in 2005 (I think)? The USD and USDJPY charts look so bullish. Just throwing it out there. Let’s assume gold runs higher into the FED, takes a hit after the meeting and then regains its footing thereafter. (maybe GDXJ moves up also then drops to 32 and then resumes u in earnest). Thoughts?

  22. catbird
    catbird says:

    A digression, but a beautiful one. Bronze statue of a young girl ‘facing down the Wall Street Bull’ has been installed for a month in lower Manhattan- the real thing.

    https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000004977856/statue-of-courageous-girl-faces-wall-street-bull.html?emc=edit_th_20170310&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=57507786

    Statue of Courageous Girl Faces Wall Street Bull

    http://www.nytimes.com

    As many American women prepare to draw attention to their role in the workplace, a Wall Street firm put up a statue of a girl in front of Lower Manhattan’s bronze bull, fearlessly staring it down.

  24. Glenfidd
    Glenfidd says:

    Appears yesterday’s lightish volume was sellers drying up.
    I like a move up in pm shares on NFP day.

  25. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Hi guys, I am on the road today but I bought a starter position in JNUG because I have some bullish signals on my daily chart. As you may recall I said I would not buy miners until they were bullish on my daily chart. This is a very small position due to the risk. As Alex says you must be very very careful here.

  26. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    For early traders/ Day traders / Higher risk tradres / My hrly chart had a buy at GDXJ $33.50 ( used for JNUG) with a break out of a base/ trend line with good volume.

    I have taught this set up here before.

    In my report above, I mentioned a break of the 6 sma too.

    So we have an attempt at a swing and a dcl. GDXJ has a swing , GDX can’t have one until Monday . GDXJ NOT CONFIRMED, but traders know the drill. : )

      • Ken
        Ken says:

        If miners continue a steady up trend on Mon. and Tues. it will be a tough decision if to hold on Wed. afternoon….

        • BayTrader
          BayTrader says:

          Thats my concern. Is this a dont get too cute where we should have gotten cute but lost all gains, or is this a – get cute and sell on Tuesday/Wed morning type deal. I havent added anything today, just looking for a few exits

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            To clarify- I think you may be misunderstanding.

            It is “Dont get too cute and overtrade positions in the first 2 daily cycles coming out of an ICL.” Also into the start of the 3rd daily cycle is usually where on might start taking profit, because the first 2 daily cycles should be R.T. & the 3rd will be the peak usually. Over trading those can leave you behind at the lows. See JAN 2016, Dec – Feb 2016-2017. That saying isnt saying ” Don’t get cute forever” , that would be called BUY & HOLD. We dont do BUY & HOLD on all positions in an intermediate cycle here.

            The first 2 daily cycles really should have been R.T., but the 2nd one peaked early. The 3rd daily cycle would be where you trade or sell some ( or all ) holdings, depending on how things unfold.

            It is NEVER dont get too cute in the sell off down to an ICL ( like end of a 3rd daily cycle 4th daily cycle possible 5th daily cycle. ).

  32. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I felt really good being so heavily in cash the last couple of days, suddenly my mind is saying…

    ” ALEX, WAKE UP…..WAY TOO MUCH CASH! YOU NEED TO BE RAKING THESE GAINS IN!! ”

    Oh what a difference a day makes…. or should I say , the final 2 hours of trading can make in Miners .

  34. catbird
    catbird says:

    Alex- I wonder what you see in the charts for NatGas here- I’m in UGAZ from 16.25- no great amount, but the trade is going my way, and now I have the challenge of ‘knowing when to sell.’ Looking at a daily chart over the last 8 months, it’s obvious that the volatility, and the range, are potentially fantastic- and unnerving. Maybe you could look at NatGas over the weekend.. Thanks so much!

  36. The Seer
    The Seer says:

    London news Article 50 to be imposed March 14th by May, March 15 Fed and Netherlands vote . . .
    We just have to hang in there. Tremendous crawl back today in metal.

  37. Ken
    Ken says:

    https:w//uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d23e5f01c50fad55c60e1c3d754bce5c228f459546527894034b1e3916cf4214.png

    GDX Weekly Count:

    I promised myself that I would refrain from posting my charts due to confusion and responsibility which has started to effect my trading but I will throw this one out there fwiw. If GDX drops below the Red (2) this primary count will be wrong and the Miners will most likely test the 2016 lows in a A B C correction.

    Have a good weekend all…….

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