Feb 23 – No Change?
The Fed Minutes were released on Wednesday at 2 P.M.. Was there any change?
SPX – No change here. We could use a pause if we are going to reach a target of 2400+.
USD – Guess what. No change in our expectations here either (So far) , but it was a CLOSE ONE! I did not want the USD to rise above the peak of 101.75 and as the minutes were released, the USD dropped. I think that downside follow through would push Gold higher.
WTIC – Yeah, No real change here either.
NATGAS – And no real change here either. It is possible that this small day that reached a new low eases the parameters for a swing low to be put in place. Unconfirmed swing lows have fooled traders a few times over the past few days. It may be best to wait for a move above the 10sma.
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GOLD, SILVER, MINERS
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This is where we really wonder, do we have any change?
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GOLD – Let’s keep this simple for Gold, Silver , & the Miners.
1. Looking at the run that took it from the Dec lows to the February highs, Gold has not dropped very much during this consolidation.
SILVER is strong, hugging the upper channel and consolidating at the 200sma. It also hasn’t dropped from the February highs. Even heavy volume over the past 2 days has not dropped price.
GDX – Yet the Miners are dropping from the highs during their consolidation, but Wednesdays drop reversed after the Fed minutes discussed ‘inflation’.
GDXJ also starting to lose the highs, but reversed after the Fed Minutes were released.
GDXJ – At this point, GDXJ is a bullish chart. GDXJ ran up and regained over 62% of the 4.5 month sell off in 2 months, and also regained the 200sma.
So basically, still ‘Keeping it simple‘, Gold , Silver and Miners still look bullish at this point. The USD does look like it is cooperating and should roll over. I had to leave my desk Wednesday afternoon before the FED MINUTES were to be released, so I lightened up on Leverage (Sold my JNUG) and a few miners that didn’t seem to be acting correctly ( TRX slipped below the 50sma, so I sold it, for example).
So when I got back in front of my computer, the markets were in the final trading hour. I wanted to take a closer look at what had happened as the Fed minutes were released. I captured this GDXJ chart below, where I saw a sharp pop with volume right at 2p.m. Price stopped right at resistance and formed a bull flag, so I took a chance and re-entered my leveraged position before it even broke out ( with a mental stop RIGHT below the flag) . Basically I had a bullish set up that enabled me to at least re-enter JNUG as a ‘trade’ attempt, and I can ride it if it continues higher. If GDXJ drops below the flag Thursday – I am out. If it gaps lower, I take a loss.
SO after the markets closed, I wanted to take a look at Miners and couldn’t help but notice that some are looking quite weak or even sick, right after releasing earnings. I read the earnings reports and they seem to be improving quarter over quarter and Y.O.Y., so it was puzzling. Let’s take a look at a few Miners and see what we have.
BTG – I see some Miners are holding up well, like BTG, EGO, GPL, GSS, and more for example.
EGO – This put in a reversal after the minutes too.
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Others are not so healthy looking.
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AUY – Look at this ugly specimen. After releasing earnings, some Miners like CDE, PAAS, AUY took a dive. I wanted to dig a bit deeper.
AUY EARNINGS- There were plenty of improvements, but looking at the chart above, you would think that they announced that they were going to close all of their mines. Read what I underlined below, and you’ll see the improvements.
So that didn’t look bad.
Then I found their forward guidance and they expect some of their current mines to produce quite a bit less. I really think that if GOLD & SILVER are at a higher price next year, they will beat this years earnings, but this guidance is likely killing their current valuation here and now. Notice the drop in production.
So at this point, I have to say that there has been no real change from the past reports and expectations when it comes to the USD, GOLD, SILVER, and the Miners. Some individual Miners are being punished after releasing earnings however. We’ll have to see what Thursday, the day after the Fed does for us. We would like to see the USD drop and Gold, Silver, and the Miners run higher. If this happens, I will explain what I think I see happening in the total big picture. I did a little extra research and am trying to get a clearer picture of what we are seeing in these areas. That means that I will have a brief Friday report to explain my findings if we do get the follow through that we have been anticipating. If not, it will be back to the drawing board. Enjoy your Thursday & Friday trading and your weekend!
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~ALEX
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NAK – Choices , choices! NAK is up 30% in after hrs. Maybe US House Committee on Science, Space and Technology will have rose colored glasses too? lol.
So how will all of those law firms continue with their lawsuits against NAK now? Most of us were stopped out around $2.80 -$3.00 NAK now jumped 30% in pre-market and is still only $1.80. You must decide if you want to ride the NAK roller coaster again. Will it go straight back up with FUND buying again? Will it bounce and form a complex bottom through consolidation? I cannot say for sure. I saw a reader named JEFF admit in real time in the comments yesterday that he was going to take a try at NAK, and he bought it yesterday during normal trading hours. Perfect timing at this point! A few others may have purchased it too- Congrats on that trade. I thought that it would get to the 200sma, but with that news in the link above, you may have caught the next low in NAK. 🙂
Also I sold my URRE as it broke the 50sma Wednesday. I was going to be away for the afternoon, so that is the way it goes. It is up 10% after hours too, on good news. I am the victim of a shake out!! : (
I’ve got some Cash to deploy and some decisions to make
Thanks Alex, appreciate the analysis, and the honesty above all else. We are still having a great ride here at CF. Congratulations to those that snagged NAK yesterday, it was on my list to buy later this morning if it stabilized a little lower in the 1.35 range, so I missed it. On to the next one.
Hey Frank
I was looking for this ( refresh) and really though that the buy at the 200sma would be today.
Have you ever heard of the saying,
“A day late and a dollar short”? I never knew what that really meant until now 🙂
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3a7a7e0970d2eac348c62e26873507566554f04562324cf4e32b300dd6b7e77.jpg
Thanks for the $spx update…..I totally agree….looking at past years when January was a strong up month means this year the market could go on to produce a 20% + return….I would buy all dips if it makes sense….If we get a dip into early March I am a buyer on XIV using 20 hour charts and selling puts that expire a few weeks later.
using 2 hour charts
Finally!!
Yup, Yup!
Glad you got back in JNUG Alex…as did I. 🙂
So -AM – I
I even added this morning premarket – I think we are on that 2nd leg to GDXJ $47+
Alex, let me know when you get out of Jnug. 🙂 Gdxj to 47+, is that real?
I’m looking for GDXJ 47 area
I’ll start to dream again. 🙂
i added more jnug at $11.24
thanks…
you re staying constantely in jnug until we achieve the 47 area, or will you go in and out
I don’t think that anyone can know how a 3x etf trade will go, these types of trades have to be taken day by day. I would not have sold yesterday if I wasn’t going to be away from my computer during Fed Minutes, but I had to trade based on what is in front of me at the time, especially with 3x etfs.
If GDXJ is going to have a final leg higher before dropping down, it could get there in a straight line next week.
THANKS A LOT BROTHER.
Hi Geurt, nice to see you again.
GOLD just hit a new daily cycle high. That is a good thing with the USD dropping, this makes it look like all things are falling into place as expected.
pshew!
And SBGL up on earnings, right after I complained about it.
At least you didnt sell it. And I thought that I saw that you own NAK 🙂
I sold URRE yesterday ( Almost at the lows of the day – haha)
I sold my JNUG and had to buy it a bit higher than I sold it at. Ugh- I hate when I have to leave for the day and its a FED day.
better lucky than good today, held NAK by a penny at the close too
Lucky girl! I almost bought it back but was afraid they would be mired down in legal attacks. by the way, is that a doxie by tour name? I grew up with one.
The legal stuff seems unfounded unless they were hiding something but I don’t think they are. Seemed like it was a place for a bounce, but the close was awful, so it is really dumb luck for me : )
Hi Ann,
I know yesterday shortly after 2 you thanked Janet.
Based on the NAK news I think NAK holders should also be thanking the new administration.
There’s a new sheriff in town and he’s not afraid of the EPA!
Alex;, NO CHANGE; Really? Alex you are a damn good researcher and letter writer,but you sir are sick and wrong and you need to seek out some ” professional ‘ help. I suggest soon!
BTW. Nice report again. Yesterday’s ‘buying on weakness’ number might have been predictive ( this time ) with GDX atop of the list with $453mil
Yes, that was a high B.O.W. #
And if I wrote my report at 8 a.m., I couldn’t use that title, but since my reports are written the night before and based only on all of the charts in the report, we had no real change. : )
You sir, need anger management classes – lol
I was just shi[[en ya. I love your warped sense of humor that you sneak in to your headlines and with that in mind I still think your sick,sick,sick!
I knew that, becuz you slammed my report, then you said ‘Nice report’ 🙂
I wasn’t slamming your report, I was slamming your sick sense of humor.
LMFAO
AH, another one of us sicko’s
Crawel….. are you upset to some people?
Hope not, I think Alex is not sick…. but I am!
Did you know this? Thank-you-so-much for your positive attitude
yeah… he’s sick alright…… 😉
What are you on… a lay over?
Why dont you go and get a snack or something AND RE-BOARD THE PLANE 🙂
hhahah… im home… :o)
gorgeous day….. wow ….
good thing…my hair was starting to stand up……lol
Well, I didn’t get the fire sale price of yesterdays close, but $1.63 avg is good enough for me to start a NAK position again.
Welcome home Nak 🙂 Please just leave that gap behind.
I am back in also this morning….premarket….I just think I need this “ground” in my Miner portfolio. 🙂
Me too, and I can’t complain about buying higher than yesterdays lows, since much of it was sold around the $3 area.
I’m wondering if funds bailed out with the negative report, and now will slowly start finding their way back in with the ‘prospect’ of future mining.
Agree ……
Gold Right Translated in this cycle correct ?
Yes, new high today, pretty good chance of it .
That is a good thing…I was starting to get worried.
With a new high this late in the cycle it is extremely RT, correct? With it this late in the cycle, do we seek a DCL now? I sold my JNUG yesterday and fear a cycle top here.. if I’m wrong please tell me to get back onboard!
It is somewhat impossible to know at this point in time. As a trader, I trade what I see each day and my reports reflect that, but each day adds to the picture, so I stay flexible and think of the possibilities.
1. I took a JNUG trade based on GDXJ & JNUG bull flagging after the Fed Minute release- Now I ride it as I see fit. I expect GDXJ $47, but will itgett there in the 2nd or 3rd daily cycle? I do not know .
2. Gold broke to a day 18 high , Miners aren’t really breaking to new highs at this time, so Gold could begin to dip down into the next dcl gradually and Miners could have been leading the way down
3. I have seen Gold top on day 25 , so Gold could go higher, Miners may catch up
4. With a R.T. daily cycle likely, Gold should make a new high in the 3rd daily cycle, so my GDXJ $47 price projection could fulfill in the 3rd daily cycle.
Good question Chad. Thanks Alex, helpful to me as well.
Thanks Alex
Since you are “in the office” question from yesterday:
GDX had 6 DCL’s in it”s last IC, how abnormal would it be to have 6 in this current IC ?
In the past 5 or 6 were not uncommon, but I found that a long intermediate cycle (5 or 6 ) would be followed by a shorter one (Maybe 4). Not a hard fast rule, but an observation
Theory of alternation.
That was what I was thinking also……..reduce exposure at the top of the 3rd DCL, which would most likely be my wave 3 top.
That is what I especially do with leverage. Sell in the 2nd or early in the 3rd if the 2nd is RT.
Gotcha….thanks !
Does that mean that we should not be in NUGT any more?
MIners are struggling while Gold is doing very good. This could be just that they are going to do a partial gap fill and find buyers later, but it also may be indicating continued weakness, so I am holding a JNUG trade from yesterday and may have to cash out if Miners do not improve by the close ( or early….I’ll have to wait and see).
Please keep us posted on what you’re seeing on the 3Xers Alex. By my count we are on Day 19 of 2nd DC, correct?
I wont be in the office much longer – we are having 60+ degree days here ( VERY RARE FOR FEBRUARY). I am an outdoor person at heart , and it is calling me 🙂
Don’t blame ya……
Yeah…it’s 72 degrees here in North Alabama….beautiful and unusual for February!
Bought some URRE this morning and have orders below the market to bring up to full position if they get filled. Alex, are you inclined to buy back what he sold yesterday, or do you see the damage as too great at this point?
Not impressed with miners. May be lagging but given gold’s advance, the group remains under pressure
Ditto here, GDX should be much higher on this action. Keeping a strong eye here.
See my reply to CHAD – Might explain things
indeed all those scenarios are possible here. I can still see higher prices in general (I have XAU 99-104 zone as an inflection point) even though getting there appears somewhat laborious.
So far so good on dollar weakness : )
GOLD 1251! very nice
potential for bearish engulfing candle on SPX
Doing better holding physical than my miners . . . . miners slow slow slow creep zig zag back up to their highs again.
Sold CLF for profit. Was hoping the consolidation would lead to another pop, but I’m not liking it this morning.
Wow, check out CLF, VALE, CLD, X, AKS, …it’s like a bearish engulfing landslide.
Nice trade, good exit. looks like something is happening in the metals sector
Alex, do you have an opinion on another author’s thoughts that today is day 5 in gold and day 1 in miners in a new daily cycle?
Anyone else feeling confused? We are seeing a break out in physical yet miners are still well off of their highs. I see CF reentered leveraged positions yesterday afternoon and is expecting juniors to climb higher, but this could also happen after a daily cycle low. We are in no mans land with sentiment and it seems like the miners may be indicating this is a daily cycle high versus the start of another move up.
Agreed. I’m keeping an eye on trend lines here for GDX and GDXJ to help inform my 3X trades but it seems the market has no direction at the moment. Or maybe I’m just not subtle enough yet to see it. That’s why I asked Alex to keep us posted on what he sees on the 3Xers. Options expiry and gold futures tomorrow might help do something in miners one way or the other.
NAK is slowing sliding throughout the day. I figured it might once the euphoria died down a bit from this morning so still waiting for further decline later today to get back in. We’ll see.
I am back in NAK…had left an order in this morning and it hit my price just before I got back from lunch. I still like their story and I have done SO well trading in/out 6 times over a year, I wanted back in. Also, with new admin. EPA less likely to roadblock them….I think they should sue the organizers of the “hit” from last week. I was afraid they would be entangled in legal stuff so held off yesterday, but if they announced they were fighting back…I think this might move up well again.
yes, good points nancy. I did well with them too and the potential on that mine site is SOOOOO huge. They were talking that mine life was measured in decades in something I was reading last week – like 8 decades. I agree with you that the new admin will temper the EPA.
Evan looks to me like GFI has done 5 minute waves up.
http://schrts.co/Kl7cdF
GDXJ looks like it is still in minute wave 4.
http://schrts.co/1MoqWO
I’m still trying to figure out how to attach charts, so I hope it works.
That’s great zig-zag, I was able to link to your charts, thanks much. I’ve had a love hate thing with GFI for the last 14 months or so. Made some good money with them and then later last year when everything was hanging i to some extent GFI took a nose dive, for no good reason that I could see. So I’m a bit wary of them. Sold my last bit of them on the rise in this cycle, breaking even… but it’s looking pretty good today, Thanks for pointing it out.
Evan,
Also on the GDXJ chart below it looks like an inverse head and shoulder pattern is unfolding.
good one, thanks
I think the the general feeling is dcl happened yesterday in the Miners. Maybe?
Thanks Daz
Ok, so I’m relatively new to cycle theory but I’ve been looking at the charts and it still seems to me that we are in the 2nd daily cycle in miners. I know some feel that we just finished a stretched first cycle. Daz, Alex, or anyone else, any thoughts on this? I’m still seeing day 19 of cycle 2… but happy to ponder other ideas.
Beautiful day here today, snow has all melted – was just out in a forest for an hour. Awesome…
Peter Boockvar today:
“The
14 day RSI in the NDX yesterday closed at 84.7, the highest since
January 1992. It was 84.2 in January 2000. The index is up 11 out of 12
days and that down day totaled 1.7 pts. The technology sector within the
S&P 500 is up 14 days in a row.”
When the margin calls hit .. . . . . can effect mining stocks too . . . – Seer
Wow. I like Boockvar. Do you have a link to this piece?
KingWorldNews.com today
Thanks Seer.
Seems like lots of the miners are forming inverse head and shoulder patterns,
KGC is classic, I see it also in GDX, GDXJ
The right shoulder is sure causing a lot of ANGST!
http://schrts.co/qFuW8E
Nice observation. Thanks.
Several days ago I warned traders not to be in a hurry to short the stock indices because they were still bullish on my charts. Just wanted to pop in today and say that as of right NOW, I’m starting to see some bearish “sell” signals (downward price trend) on my daily chart of TQQQ (the only stock EFT I trade). But TQQQ is bouncing back and is currently a “buy” (up trend) on my intraday 15 min chart. So take that for what it’s worth.
Thanks Steve, Been watching TQQQ and SQQQ along with LABD and LABU lately. Thanks for the heads up.
Yes – John Murphy just posted this at stockcharts:
TRANSPORTS DIVERGE FROM INDUSTRIALS WHICH IS A SHORT-TERM
WARNING
— UTILITY SURGE MAY ALSO SIGNAL DEFENSIVE SHIFT
— UTILITY/TRANSPORTATION RATIO TURNS UP
— CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR NEARS NEW RECORD
— THAT MAY ALSO SIGNAL A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE IN AN OVERBOUGHT
MARKET
Might be time to go long SQQQ :)-
I went long SQQQ this morn with a starter position. In at 39… see how it plays out
FYI I’m very bullish on stocks this year. Unlike some traders I don’t expect a massive “crash” but there will be a pullback. I would love to see a dip under the 20 day SMA as a “buying opp” but that may be a long way off.
Me too !!!
Still interested in TAHO but not biting yet. Stock gaped above yesterday’s highs and has maintained its gains in spite of sector weakness today.
Just thought I’d point this out in case people here missed it.
I’ve been following various parts of the economy for the last number of years (I’m more of a macro and trend guy) and one of the things I check in on once in a while is the US debt clock data. I noticed last spring that price of gold and silver per oz were added out of nowhere – and they were completely different from the spot prices. I had to do some quick calculations to figure out that the price posted there on the debt clock was determined by the amount of US currency units (dollars) in existence divided by the ounces of available metal above ground. Blew me away as gold was around $8000/oz and silver around $900/oz then, which is roughly what the clock read at that point.
Like I said, these boxes with these prices just magically appeared one day. So today I just checked it again and now instead of price per/ounce they’ve actually done the conversion of units to read ‘dollar to silver ratio’ and ‘dollar to gold ratio’ to save us from doing the calculation that I had to do last year.
Interesting that they’ve suddenly and quietly started advertising this. Conspiracy and manipulation theorists can have a hay day…
Check out the bottom right hand corner boxes… http://www.usdebtclock.org
This is very cool. Thanks for sharing.
Agree very cool…..
Very interesting. Thanks
what’s with URRE all of a sudden
Just checked news. They apparently found a lithium deposit. Released today but not sure when.
correction, that was yesterday..
No, it’s Trump. More nukes : (
great….
I just posted this in yesterday’s discussion thread by mistake. Here is another possible “signal” trade today (2/23) in GDX. Notice the long tail down on the 15 min candle in the pre-market, then see the LOD today in GDX. It just about hit. Coincidence? You decide. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66a46a00ff59bd46d3ad60b9e3a65c7f870077fe9bf0059fb45ef81a9d6de06a.png
Highly suspicious!
thanks for sharing. I see. The candle gives the big boys a heads up where is the next buy point?
Some people think so. I can’t prove it, but those long tails are hit often enough to be suspicious. It works with long tails UP as well.
Deer (DE) had a major up candle today. What was that about? (See attached) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/275e5f3063327af33c9c2749744d6b287064e415a588c295e95613759693225a.png
Keep an eye on it for the next 10 trading days to see if that $109 price hits. Some would say that’s a signal to other traders that this was a stop run and it’s going back up to about $109.70 but please understand this is not a “sure thing” and I’m not sure how much I believe in these “signal trades” but they hit often enough to be interesting.
man, I can’t get these candles on TOS…. Just signed up to Schwab, their charts are crap. Where do you get these?
They are only visible in certain trading systems, they don’t want YOU to see them! LOL. I use Schwab’s StreetSmartEdge trading platform. That’s where the screen capture is from. Make sure you have “Level 2” trading access so that you can see all the bids and asks on every stock, not just the current bid and ask.
This is what “Level 2” access looks like. Notice I can see every buy and sell order for JNUG with the price and the number of shares. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c78a83727c8eec5f49e3352f9a6898e2cc6b90c2b82e00d9daf43333c9706769.png
boy that was an ugly finish! looked ok before I left work. Seems the subway ride home wasn’t the only thing that went underground around 330p. 🙁
interesting that while the gold miners took a whack at eod the silver miners held up pretty well. would think both would have sank down if the whole miner category was going to hell in a hand basket. we’ll just have to see…
FYI for NAK and TRQ holders/watchers. Interesting comparison. Another case for NAK going forward.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048165-turquoise-hill-resources-vs-northern-dynasty
frustrating miner action for sure.
Big picture for GDXJ. . Thinking a re-test of 200ma (daily) breakout. weak action today… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c93040384dde40108031aa958401f7a38895cfa5d3870d76768a4ebc3b919db4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c24f850e45e8b5ff0f392d0318a01061aa8b9e9a691c32f726fbec9ba231914.png
Why a A B C and not 1-2-3-4-5?
I’m hanging in there with GDXJ (mainly in JNUG) because the juniors have been outperforming the major miners for quite awhile. On a positive note, GDXJ/JNUG are both currently a “buy” (up trend) in the AH on my 15 min charts so I’m holding strong, but it’s been a rough ride this week. My WEEKLY chart still looks bullish, which is what is keeping me on the miner train despite bearish signals on my daily charts for the past few days. It’s nail-biting time waiting for miners to rally.
yes nail biting is the word.
Thanks for the P&F chart. Gotta to learn the art of it. The Price objective works 🙂
kind of strange how GDXJ/JNUG lost most its gain with gold up $17….
Manipulation by the “Big Boyz”? Look at my “signal” trade candle below.
I’m cluelss. GDX ended up like 3 cents. I’m completely baffled. MUX?? What the heck? TRX, AUMN, CDE = Sucks!!!
FWIW, the P&F chart of GDXJ currently shows a bullish price target of $73. Right in line with your “C”
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=GDXJ,PHTADANRBO
Now, that I could do! But I’m about done with “retracement”. Today’s price action sucked. Period. Chance we close the gap, reset short term indicators (I was watching hourly this afternoon) and then move higher. If we don’t, I’ll be significantly increasing my cash by cutting back hard.
Just read that they are filing for registration of an ETF that will be a marijuana ETF…focused on the medical marijuana companies…..still researching to get more info on it…
Here is what I got: http://marijuanastocks.com/first-marijuana-fund-officially-filed/
That would make it easier for folks like me that can’t possibly research 10-12 firms. All my MJ stocks went up in smoke today. Puff, puff, give!!
Yeah, today was a down day for many of them…I sold several when I saw things going south…had one small loss mixed with some gains….I keep them on a tight rope….I will be happy to have an etf! On the flip side, I think there might be some good buys now. 🙂 I am wondering if the marijuana stocks are shaping up into their own “cycles” and if the end of the month is shaping up to be cycle lows…….so maybe a 30 days cycle or so…….I’m going to do some chart looking and see if I can come up with anything…hahaha…but I am no EW person….so….